June 30, 2024 Grandpa checks in
According to The Block, citing people familiar with the matter, the SEC has returned the S-1 form to potential Ethereum spot ETF issuers, who are required to process these comments and resubmit them by July 8. As a result, the final trading date of the ETF will be postponed because at least one more round of filings will be required. For Ethereum, if it can successfully gain attention in the ETF market, there will be funds that value Ethereum for a long time, and this value is not just the value of a "supercomputer", but part of it is the "stored value" value.
I define the value of Ethereum as the "application" value. For example, DeFi Summer has driven the price of Ethereum to jump 10 times or more. If there is another wave of popular innovative applications in the ecosystem, the value can achieve an exponential growth. Obviously, the focus of this wave is not on Ethereum. Today's on-chain Gas Price has fallen to 1Gwei. Even in the bear market last year, the on-chain Gas fee did not fall to 1. It can be seen that the Ethereum ecosystem is temporarily weak, which can also explain the poor price performance of ecological projects.
In terms of the market, if the most anticipated Ethereum ETF is delayed, and there are not many new things in the ecosystem, the price may face "internal and external troubles" for a period of time. I have said before that Ethereum may rebound first after sideways trading, which is based on the premise that the Ethereum ETF is successfully listed. In this case, it will still be mainly sideways in the future. Another phenomenon worth noting is that many applications will choose to debut on the L2 layer, with the most being Arb and OP, but there are still no explosive applications. Now the market should be waiting for an explosion point.
The price of Bitcoin has been above 60,000, which is consistent with my previous judgment. So the probability of going up next is higher. Although the price has not plummeted to the price of a bear market, the market sentiment is already similar, and the price of copycats has generally been cut in half relative to the high point, and the price-performance ratio is sufficient. Retail investors often like to rush in when the sentiment is high, and lie down and wait when the price falls, including airdrops. Previously, ZK, L0, etc. were rolled together. In fact, in my opinion, now is a good time to pay attention to airdrops.
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