The bulls are unable to break through BTC above $62,430. Let us remember that this is the 0.382 Fibonacci level from the low on May 1 to the high on June 7.
The local reversal pattern “Adam and Eve”, which was written about yesterday, has formed, but cannot break through the neck line. And this is again $62,430. At the moment, this is a key level, without a breakout of which the rebound scenario threatens to end.
The pattern is under threat of “blurring” and loss of the momentum inherent in it (targets for the pattern are the volume level of $64,120 and the neighboring 0.5 Fibonacci level (rate of $64,262).
At the last debate between Biden and Trump, the#BTCexchange rate showed volatility of around 1%; there was no talk about the crypto industry, although many (including us) expected reproaches from Trump.
While the price of#BTCis below $62,430, there is a threat of invalidation of the reversal pattern and updating of the local loy. The hike is below $58,410 and the EMA 200 day TF test (currently $58,101). And at a minimum - again a test of the 0.236 Fibonacci level (rate $60,123) and psychological $60,000. And also the volume level is $59,335.
We will consider the correction scenario no earlier than the breakdown of the volume level of $61,231. So far today it has been thoroughly tested and it has acted as support.
For the bulls, it is important to see, in addition to the breakout of $62,430, an approach to the volume level of $64,120. With the breakdown of other associated resistances, the key of which is the downward trend since June 7 (now at $63,462). Then there will be a high probability of testing the EMA of the 50 day TF (currently $65,520). And already at this resistance the fate of the transition of the rebound into a reversal will be decided.
An important point - today is the last working day of June. And on Sunday the monthly candle closes. Back on May 1, in our review, we wrote: “the maximum that will be delivered in May and June will most likely become a maximum somewhere before the fall.” When we wrote this, we expected that the exit from the fourth wave to the fifth and the ATH update would occur in these months. But the range in the fourth wave continues. And it has already lasted 120 (!) days. Exhausting the nerves and deposits of many traders.
It’s difficult to imagine that this sideways trend will continue for another two months. Therefore, for now we are extending the forecast with a “window of opportunity” for the new ATH to the first two weeks of July. And based on their results we will draw final conclusions. ATH update during this period is requested. And the general skepticism of the players confirms this. There is too much liquidity at the top not to go for it in a bull market.
$BTC
