June 28 U.S. macroeconomic data preview: U.S. May core#PCEprice index annual rate Recommended reading: ★★★★★

US May#corePCEprice index annual rate/month rate,

PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures

Core PCE: Personal consumption expenditures excluding energy and food

Annual rate: compared with the same period last year

Monthly rate: PCE data compared with the previous month


This data directly shows the U.S. consumer spending in May, thereby measuring the U.S. inflation situation, especially the core PCE, which is also a value that Federal Reserve officials pay close attention to.
This month, the Federal Reserve lowered its expectation for a rate cut in 2024 to one time. At the same time, Powell mentioned many times that core PCE is still under pressure, so this index will have a direct impact on the frequency and magnitude of the Fed's current rate cuts.

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The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May,


Data weight: ★★★★★

Data content: previous value 2.8% expected 2.6%

Data time: UTC+8 20:30, June 28, 2024

Data impact:

1. The announced value is higher than expected and the previous value, inflation rebounds, and the Federal Reserve has more reasons to maintain high interest rates, which is bearish for risk markets.

2. The announced value is higher than expected and lower than the previous value. Inflation is stubborn. The Fed continues to maintain its expectation of one interest rate cut in 2024, which is bearish for risk markets.

3. The published value is in line with expectations and lower than the previous value. Inflation is in line with expectations. The Fed has reason to continue to maintain the current interest rate policy. However, the market will still fully imagine that the interest rate will be cut as soon as possible and the frequency of interest rate cuts will increase. The market fluctuates slightly/travels sideways.

4. The announced value is lower than expected and significantly lower than the previous value. Inflation has fallen beyond expectations and the pace of inflation reduction has accelerated. At the same time, economic stability will be conducive to interest rate cuts, pushing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier and increase the magnitude of the cut, which is good for risk markets.


At present, the core PCE will have more probability of negative impact on the risk market, and a small probability of positive impact. There are 3 cases of negative impact and sideways trend, and only 1 case of positive impact. (Not used as a basis for data interpretation)

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U.S. core PCE price index monthly rate in May


Data weight: ★★★★

Data content: previous value 0.2% expected 0.3%,

Data time: UTC+8 20:30, June 28, 2024

Data impact:

1. The published value is higher than expected and the previous value. Inflation will rebound stubbornly in the short term. The Federal Reserve has good reasons to continue to maintain the current interest rate, which is bearish for the risk market.

2. The published value is higher than expected and the same as the previous value. Inflation is still resilient in the short term. The possibility of the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates in the near future has decreased, which is bearish for the risk market.

3. The published value is in line with expectations and lower than the previous value. Inflation is effectively controlled in the short term, which may boost the Federal Reserve's active interest rate cuts. However, the final right of interpretation still lies with the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the data is also affected by the core PCE annual rate.

4. The announced value is lower than expected and significantly lower than the previous value. The rate of decline in inflation will accelerate in the short term, which will optimistically boost expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and benefit risk markets.


The core PCE data cannot have an independent weighting effect and must be interpreted with reference to the annual rate, so the monthly rate as a whole depends on the possibility of the annual rate. It is not ruled out that the core PCE annual rate remains stubborn while the monthly rate decreases, which will bring positive sentiment to the market, but it is also possible that the core PCE annual rate is higher than expected, while the monthly rate is higher than expected or the previous value, and short-term inflation rebounds, releasing negative sentiment. The monthly rate should be considered together with the annual rate.

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May Individual

Monthly rate of expenditure
Data weight: ★★★

Data content: previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%,

Data time: UTC+8 20:30, June 28, 2024
Data impact:

This data has the lowest weight among the three data, and is also closely related to the monthly rate. If personal spending is higher than expected or in line with expectations, increased spending means increased economic activity, which is good for the US economy, US stocks and the US dollar, and vice versa. However, this data is a companion data, so it cannot be used alone to judge the market trend, unless there is a small probability that the data fluctuates significantly, significantly higher than the expected value or significantly lower than the expected value.

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This period's data still focuses on the core#PCEannual and monthly rates. If the Fed wants to maintain the current interest rate rhythm and expectations, it needs to keep the annual rate at around 2.7%, with the monthly rate being the same as the previous value or slightly higher than the previous value. This will directly lead to a rapid cooling of the market's optimistic expectations for rate cuts.


At present, the market still maintains an optimistic expectation of two interest rate cuts after the May interest rate meeting. The most controversial issue is the possibility of a rate cut in September. The possibility of a rate cut in July is greatly reduced, unless the PCE data in May is significantly favorable to the expectation of a rate cut.