Bold PMI data, unexpected "happy and sad"

I was late for home today because of something, which resulted in the failure to synchronize my views in time when the PMI data was updated. However, compared with my expected data on Sunday, the PMI index on Monday today really amazed me.

The original expectation was that the data would be neutral, continue to maintain the strong "data" of the US economy, and not bring too much pressure to inflation. As a result, the two PMIs gave completely opposite statements.

First, the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in May in the United States. Personal expectations were lower than expectations and the previous value, and the greatest possibility was that it was in line with expectations. Unexpectedly, the data was directly given to exceed expectations and the previous value, and the data of 51.3 was released. The single data proved that the US manufacturing industry continued to perform strongly. This will bring pressure to inflation and is not conducive to the expectation of interest rate cuts.

The second data is the US ISM Manufacturing PMI in May. The data is from the US Supply Management Association. Compared with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI index, the weight is higher. After all, one is from the Supply Management Association and the other is from the S&P Global Intelligence Organization, and the former has a higher data weight.

Originally, personal expectations were lower than expectations and higher than the previous value, proving that the manufacturing industry is recovering, and at the same time, it does not bring too much pressure to inflation in the short term.

The final result exceeded my expectations, lower than the previous value and expectations, and the published value was 48.7. The data remained below the 50 line of prosperity and decline, proving that the US manufacturing industry is still in a recession and is getting further and further away from the 50 line of prosperity and decline. This is a result I did not expect. Although the continued decline of the manufacturing industry represents the decline of the US economy, from another perspective, it represents the reduction of inflationary pressure and the increase of expectations for interest rate cuts, which is a kind of "eating happy funerals".

Note:
The inflation brought about by the recovery of the manufacturing industry is actually benign inflation, and the decline of the manufacturing industry does not directly mean that the inflationary pressure has been greatly reduced. After all, 70% of the US GDP still comes from the service industry. Although the manufacturing industry is an important industry in the United States, in recent decades, the United States has transferred many low-cost labor markets overseas, resulting in the country not completely relying on the manufacturing industry to promote the economy, and everyone has seen the consequences of this. However, this also avoids excessive inflationary pressure brought by the manufacturing industry (although the recovery of the US manufacturing industry is a bit far away)

PS: The "eating happy funerals" in the article comes from the "funeral celebration" mentioned by Teacher Ni recently
#BTC走势分析 #美国经济数据

The July consumer confidence index and inflation expectations provided by the University of Michigan were released.
The data showed that the respondents' consumer confidence declined, and they expected future inflation to decrease.
According to this logic, the respondents' expectations for the US economy are relatively pessimistic, and they are expecting the possibility of an economic recession.
The decline in consumer confidence and the decline in expected inflation are in line with expectations, which means that the decline in inflation comes from the decline in demand on the demand side, rather than the decline in prices.
I don't think this data is what the Federal Reserve wants.
Of course, today's data is only the initial value. Let's wait and see the final value data in the second half of the month.
#美国经济数据
#BTC☀ $BTC

🚀 CoinShares: Bitcoin leads the decline! US economic data drives $305 million outflow from crypto markets in the week

📅 Last week, the digital asset market saw $305 million in outflows, which was a common phenomenon across almost all providers and regions. CoinShares believes that this is because the US macroeconomic data was better than expected, which made the market feel that the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates so quickly, and the rate cut might not be so large.

📈 The CoinShares report pointed out that Bitcoin was the main focus of this outflow, with $319 million in outflows from the Bitcoin market last week. At the same time, Bitcoin short investment products attracted a large amount of inflows for the second consecutive week, the highest level since March. Ethereum also experienced outflows, with an outflow of $5.7 million, while trading volume also declined.

🌐 Despite the overall poor market sentiment, some altcoins such as Solana (SOL) bucked the trend and attracted $7.6 million in inflows. Binance Coin (BNB), Litecoin (LTC), and Cardano (ADA) also recorded some inflows.

🗺️ Regionally, the United States was the country with the largest outflow of funds, reaching $318 million. Germany and Sweden also saw outflows. Canada, on the other hand, saw the largest inflow of funds, followed by Switzerland and Brazil.

🤔 As the Fed's policy changes get closer, the digital asset market may react more sensitively to interest rate expectations. Investors are closely watching these macroeconomic data to predict future market movements.

Conclusion:

📈 Strong macroeconomic data in the United States led to an outflow of $305 million in funds from Bitcoin and other digital assets, showing the significant impact of traditional economic indicators on the cryptocurrency market.

📊 At the same time, the economic data that exceeded expectations reduced the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cuts, which in turn affected investors' interest in risky assets, including Bitcoin.

🌐 This also shows that the correlation between the digital asset market and the traditional financial market is strengthening, and investors are paying more attention to macroeconomic factors.

💬 Crypto assets have experienced capital outflows for two consecutive weeks. What do you think? Do you think US economic data and the Fed’s policies are key influencing factors?Share your thoughts!

#比特币 #数字资产 #资金流动 #美国经济数据

There are many macroeconomic data in the United States this week: PPI on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday, retail data on Thursday and the number of initial unemployment claims for the week. Inflation data represented by PPI and CPI are likely to be consistent with market expectations. However, retail data and initial claims data may fluctuate. The market is now very sensitive to whether the US economy is at risk of recession. Any data that can judge the trend of the US economy will be highly concerned by the market. Overall, the market may be volatile this week. Everyone should pay attention to risk control and continue to hold spot XDM without worry, preparing for the climax of the second half of the bull market. #美国通胀数据 #美国CPI数据 #美国经济数据 #美国PPI #美国经济衰退 $BTC

$BTC $ETH

Breaking news!

The US economic data for September has been released!

CPI and unemployment benefits both exceeded expectations!

Let's take a look at the highlights!

📊 CPI data highlights:

Unadjusted core CPI annual rate: 3.3%! 0.1 percentage point higher than expected, the previous value was also 3.20%. It seems that the inflationary pressure in the United States is still not small!

Unadjusted CPI annual rate: 2.4%! It also exceeded the expectation of 2.3%, and the previous value was 2.50%. This wave of turbulent CPI is unpredictable!

Seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate: 0.3%, the same as the previous value, but 0.1 percentage point higher than expected. Does the slight increase mean that inflationary pressure is still continuing?
Unemployment benefit highlights:

The number of initial unemployment claims in the week ending October 5: 258,000! It hit a new high since the week of August 5, 2023, 28,000 more than the expected 230,000, and the previous value was 225,000. Once this data comes out, will the labor market face new challenges?

What kind of economic trends and investment opportunities are hidden behind these data?

In short, the US economic data in September showed the characteristics of continued inflationary pressure and labor market fluctuations.

These data will undoubtedly have an important impact on the Fed's future monetary policy decisions, and will also affect investors' views and expectations on the economy. Therefore, we need to pay close attention to the subsequent changes in these data and their impact on the economy and the market.

Follow me and share the latest high-quality market information for you every day, so that you can make a fortune without getting lost.

#美国经济数据 #CPI数据 #失业金人数 #热门话题 #BTC☀

What factors have driven Bitcoin's strong performance today?
First, #美国经济数据 boosted confidence and eased recession concerns. The U.S. labor market data released on August 5 became the focus of the market. The data showed that the number of initial jobless claims fell from the recent high, far below economists' expectations, indicating that the U.S. economy may not have fallen into recession as the market had previously worried.
Second, short liquidations helped the rise and market sentiment tended to be positive. On the eve of Bitcoin's rise, large-scale short liquidations occurred in the cryptocurrency futures market. In the past 24 hours, short liquidations exceeded US$114 million, far exceeding long liquidations, showing the rapid collapse of short forces. The increase in Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) and funding rates also reflects that traders are beginning to take risks again, and market sentiment is gradually turning to optimism.
Finally, whales are actively buying, and the market bottom may have been confirmed. The exchange BTC balance has fallen to a five-year low, indicating that the market bottom may have been confirmed and investors are optimistic about future price increases. In the future, as the market environment continues to improve and investor confidence continues to increase, crypto assets such as Bitcoin are expected to usher in a new round of rising cycles.

I chatted with a big shot in the circle, and he said that this week:
25% interest rate cut, big drop
50% interest rate cut, big drop
Interest rate hike, crash and circuit breaker
His opinion is that interest rate cut is a recession
My personal opinion
Interest rate cut does not necessarily mean recession.
First of all, we must understand that the Fed raises interest rates to curb inflation and cool down the overheated economy, and cuts interest rates to avoid economic recession, inject funds into the depressed market, and improve the vitality and resilience of the economy.
Due to the lack of experience before the Fed's previous interest rate cut cycles, the interest rate cut started later than now, and the general public lacked confidence in the Fed's ability to control the economy, resulting in a large economic recession before the interest rate cut. At the same time, due to people's lack of understanding of the Fed's ability and insufficient confidence in it, the economic recession and people's panic were further exacerbated after the interest rate cut.
Today's Fed is no longer the Fed of ten or twenty years ago. It has sufficient experience in macroeconomic regulation such as interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts, and people have confidence in it. Coupled with the strong performance of non-agricultural, ICP, and other data in recent months, the Fed directly started to cut interest rates and release water this month, which is just right and may not necessarily cause a major economic recession. #美国经济数据