#庄家思维 looks at $BTC , what does the dealer want to do?

The current market trend of BTC is likely a carefully planned long-short conversion operation by the dealer. From a weekly perspective, after experiencing a wedge adjustment for half a year, the market has initiated a new wave of upward momentum, with bullish sentiment running high and retail investors aggressively chasing the rise. However, with five weeks of overbought performance, the dealer has fully utilized the market's optimistic sentiment to complete a round of high-level distribution.
Recently, BTC has fallen to the upper Bollinger Band and has broken through the critical Fibonacci 1.15 support, while also testing the EMA7 support level, signaling a clear retracement. This is indicative of the dealer using technical retracement to wash out and clear out the floating funds.
From the indicators, the weekly MACD bullish volume is gradually weakening, the fast line is turning downward but still in the bullish zone, indicating that the dealer has not completely turned bearish, but is intentionally creating a false illusion of a retracement to lower market expectations and suppress retail confidence.
The daily MACD bearish volume has exploded, with the fast and slow lines turning downward, further reinforcing the short-term bearish atmosphere, attracting panic selling and counter-trend shorting funds. The dealer is likely using this operation to create the illusion that "the bulls are dead," while in reality, they are accumulating at low prices to prepare for the next round of upward movement.
Additionally, from market news, the recent hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve and the decline in interest rate cut expectations are undoubtedly important tools for the dealer to harvest the bulls. These bearish factors, combined with market adjustments, not only amplify retail panic but also provide ample chips for the dealer to accumulate at low prices. The actions of Trump and his family fund WLFI quietly bottoming out ETH and LINK tokens further validate the possibility of the dealer's strategic positioning behind the scenes. This unusual market dynamic indicates that the current strong retracement is more like a planned harvesting under the cooperation of the dealer and policies.
In summary, the current BTC trend is not simply the end of a bull market, but a necessary means for the dealer to create short-term panic and adjust the rhythm. In the dealer's operational logic, every retracement is a process of accumulation and clearing floating funds, especially near key support levels (such as EMA55 and Fibonacci 1.382), which often serve as the starting point for the next bullish launch. One should avoid being influenced by short-term market emotions, rationally analyze technical signals and market dynamics, and wait for the new round of upward signals after the dealer completes their accumulation.

The market maker's trading methods and corresponding trading strategies for strong market makers (2)

Trading opportunities

1. Short-selling opportunities Short-selling opportunities mainly occur when the following signals are met at the same time:

(1) The funding rate turns negative rapidly, and even the spot contract has a price difference. The market maker quickly closes long orders and opens short orders, resulting in a huge trading volume in the contract in a short period of time, but the price no longer rises. In addition, the market maker does not sell the spot, so there will be a price difference between the contract and the spot, thereby attracting arbitrage parties to open multiple spot contracts.

(2) Multiple and rapid price cuts. The market maker's large position closes long orders and opens short orders.

(3) The market maker's position address begins to transfer large amounts of money to the delivery wallet (millions or tens of millions of US dollars). This means that the spot market has begun to crash. You can consider monitoring addresses and other operations.

It is important to note that when trading short orders, you must wait for the signal to be met and open a short position after the trend is formed.

Do not try to compete with the market maker for the first profit at a high position with high leverage, because there is a high probability of being pulled out.

Moreover, this type of token that is pulled up usually has a drop of 75%~80%, and the high short position and short position are opened after the trend is formed. The profit difference will not be very large.

 2. Long opportunities
The long trading opportunity is in the middle and late stages of the rise, and it is difficult to grasp the timing compared to short positions.
During the rise, the dealer will continue to pull and smash to clear the 3-5X leverage position, and the trading range is only in the middle and late stages of the rise.
When the dealer opens a short signal, close the position quickly. And because there will be a price difference between spot and contract before the market crash, there will be more time to buy spot than contract operations.
#合约爆仓  #合约带单 #庄家思维

How big is the correction after the production cut? How long will the correction last?

Referring to the halftime of the bull market in 2021 (519), Bitcoin retreated by about 55%, bottomed out from mid-May to June 21, and bottomed out again in mid-July. The overall correction time was 2 months, and then the second half of the bull market began.

But after June 21, the game currencies that were in the hot sector at the time no longer followed Bitcoin's second decline, but started the second half of the market in advance.

The correction of this wave of market in 2024 is currently around 20%. It has really started to be considered a correction since the beginning of April, and it has only been less than 28 days in terms of time.
So from the perspective of time, it is still not enough at present, but from the perspective of amplitude, I think it is difficult for BTC to have a large correction. Even if it is a deep correction, it will recover quickly. The mining cost is about 52,000 yuan. Because the first half of the last bull market rose sharply, the correction was also deep. This round is not the case. The increase is relatively small, so the correction is also relatively small. Only time can end the correction. It is inevitable that the wash phase will be accompanied by various negative news. The dealer's trading method is to advance one step and retreat two steps to suppress the currency price. The purpose is to make retail investors panic and sell their chips. The dealer absorbs chips at a low level and starts a new round of pull-ups with enough chips. What we have to do is to dance with the dealer, choose a good track, choose a good target, buy small when it falls, sell big when it falls, and leave the rest to time. Give time some time#比特币减半 #大盘走势 #庄家思维 $

The market maker's manipulation methods and corresponding trading strategies of the strong market maker (1)
 
The original text comes from Twitter @Michael_Liu93. The content in this article is a product of the editing and may deviate from the original intention of the author.
 
 
Characteristics of strong market maker tokens:
 
1. The token has little attention and generally no one hoards spot tokens.

The chips are extremely concentrated. One address or several related addresses occupy most of the total chips (60%~70%, or 80%~90% of the total circulation).

l Holding address query tools: Arkham, OKlink, token corresponding chain block browser

l Address association tool query: Bubblemaps

2. Only spot tokens are available in large exchanges with good liquidity.

This type of token usually has trading pairs in Korean exchanges with spot liquidity and user sentiment to chase the rise (mainly upbit and bithumb, and some in binance), and is paired with several exchanges with good liquidity (mainly binance and bybit combination). Most of them only have spot tokens and no contracts. Usually, a token with only spot tokens starts to rise and meets several other characteristics. Then Binance announced the launch of the contract, which means that the dealer is ready to harvest.

3. The speed of pulling up and smashing the market is very fast
The market will rise tenfold within a month, the main rising wave will not exceed one week, and then smash 80% within one week, and sell it after the harvest or abandon it directly.

General means of dealer operation

1. Build long positions at the bottom
Some dealers will not place long orders, but take the top short-selling profits. Only earn part of the profit of long orders through spot

2. Small funds pull up the market to attract retail investors to enter
Use small funds to pull up the spot and drive the contract up. Attract retail investors who trade short-term to short in order to earn band profits. Among them, the funding rate reached a negative extreme for the first time in this operation, mainly because a large number of retail investors and quantitative institutions were shorting

3. Induce shorts and continue to pull up
The dealer continues to use small funds to quickly leverage the spot to rise, and continue to drive the contract up. The rise of contracts leads to the liquidation of retail investors, and the forced liquidation of retail investors will further lead to the rise of contract prices

4. Open short positions at the top and smash the market. After all the short positions are blown up, the dealer starts to close long positions, then establish short positions at the top, and finally smash the market to complete the harvest. Among them, the second time the funding rate reached a negative extreme value, the main reason was that the dealer opened short positions

Due to space limitations, the rest will be seen in the next article.
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