团子财经
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每日宏观分析，大盘走势解读，一起把握区块链时代的红利，公众号团子财经
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How crazy can the next bull market be? How to find 100x coins?
Let’s not mention it since it was too long ago. If we only look at the last bull market (2021-2022), Bitcoin was already halved for the third time. Bitcoin rose by up to eight times. After all, Bitcoin is already the number one cryptocurrency. The market value of big coins is already very high, and it is unlikely that they will rise dozens of times again. What about other coins?
The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.
If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.
The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.
If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.
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The key question in the market right now is whether this rebound is driven by short-term speculative behavior or marks the beginning of a sustained rise in Bitcoin for 2025?
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Bitcoin is at 100,000 again, when will the broad rally start? When to enter and when to exit?
Bitcoin has once again broken through the $100,000 mark.
Since entering January, Bitcoin ETF spot has again achieved net inflow, with its total net asset value reaching $111.46 billion. The ETF net asset ratio (the market value compared to the total market value of Bitcoin) is 5.72%, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $35.91 billion.
Institutions are increasingly adding BTC.
On January 3, according to official news from MicroStrategy, it plans to raise $2 billion in the first quarter through the issuance of preferred stock to buy more BTC. This lays the foundation for an increase in BTC buying. Since last Monday, 11 publicly traded companies have purchased more Bitcoin. In 2025, many companies will join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has scripted a campaign.
Since entering January, Bitcoin ETF spot has again achieved net inflow, with its total net asset value reaching $111.46 billion. The ETF net asset ratio (the market value compared to the total market value of Bitcoin) is 5.72%, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $35.91 billion.
Institutions are increasingly adding BTC.
On January 3, according to official news from MicroStrategy, it plans to raise $2 billion in the first quarter through the issuance of preferred stock to buy more BTC. This lays the foundation for an increase in BTC buying. Since last Monday, 11 publicly traded companies have purchased more Bitcoin. In 2025, many companies will join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has scripted a campaign.
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Didn’t ACT announce good news today? Is this guy going to cheat again?
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Five notable token unlock events this week: Are bull market unlocks positive or negative?
Token unlocks are events that release previously locked tokens, typically related to financing agreements. Projects usually plan strategically for these events to minimize market pressure and maintain price stability.
Here are five notable token unlock events occurring this week:
ENA
Unlock date: January 8
Number of tokens unlocked: 12.86 million ENA
Current circulating supply: 3.03 billion ENA
Ethena is a synthetic currency protocol running on Ethereum, providing bank-independent savings solutions through 'internet bonds' pegged to the US dollar. ENA tokens serve as governance tokens, allowing holders to participate in protocol development decisions.
Here are five notable token unlock events occurring this week:
ENA
Unlock date: January 8
Number of tokens unlocked: 12.86 million ENA
Current circulating supply: 3.03 billion ENA
Ethena is a synthetic currency protocol running on Ethereum, providing bank-independent savings solutions through 'internet bonds' pegged to the US dollar. ENA tokens serve as governance tokens, allowing holders to participate in protocol development decisions.
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Bitcoin is once again approaching the $100,000 mark, with plenty of data this week—will it pull back?
The cryptocurrency market, aside from a significant rise in AI Agents over the weekend, saw most other coins maintain a narrow trading range. Bitcoin hovered between $97,000 and $99,000, while Ethereum fluctuated between $3,500 and $3,700. Bitcoin's market share showed signs of stabilizing and slightly recovering, indicating that altcoins are underperforming compared to Bitcoin.
Weekends typically see lower market volatility, and as European and American investors resume normal trading days, as long as Bitcoin does not drop below last night's low of $97,200, there is a possibility of challenging the $100,000 mark again in the short term. Currently at $99,400, it is indeed sprinting towards $100,000.
Weekends typically see lower market volatility, and as European and American investors resume normal trading days, as long as Bitcoin does not drop below last night's low of $97,200, there is a possibility of challenging the $100,000 mark again in the short term. Currently at $99,400, it is indeed sprinting towards $100,000.
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Funds start to flow back, accumulating on dips, patiently waiting for a rise
After the Christmas and New Year holidays in Europe and America, the cryptocurrency market experienced a brief decline, with Bitcoin dropping from $100,000 to a low of $92,000. However, as the holidays ended, significant funds flowed back into the cryptocurrency market, pushing Bitcoin back up to $98,000. Meanwhile, existing funds in the cryptocurrency market began to flow into main chain coins and DeFi concept tokens. Ethereum surged stronger to over $3,600, and other DeFi tokens also performed well, contrary to the previous situation where Bitcoin was the only strong performer.
The main reason for this structural change is quite understandable. The price trend over the past two weeks shows that the strong trend of Bitcoin is fading. This is mainly due to weakened investor demand, especially among U.S. market participants. Before the Christmas holiday, the Coinbase premium index showed a decline in demand, dropping to -0.237, the lowest level since December 2023.
The main reason for this structural change is quite understandable. The price trend over the past two weeks shows that the strong trend of Bitcoin is fading. This is mainly due to weakened investor demand, especially among U.S. market participants. Before the Christmas holiday, the Coinbase premium index showed a decline in demand, dropping to -0.237, the lowest level since December 2023.
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In 2025, Bitcoin at $150,000+, Ethereum at $6,000+, which altcoins can produce hundredfold projects?
Despite signs of market liquidity shortages during the holidays, it is a fact that Bitcoin is about to rise.
Bitcoin is currently down more than 10% from its peak of $108,300 recorded on December 17. Data shows that the trading price has been below $100,000 since December 19.
Although momentum is slow, Bitcoin could rise to $105,000 in January.
As investors seek to allocate capital across various asset classes, Bitcoin's market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations. By the end of January, Bitcoin may fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000.
Bitcoin is currently down more than 10% from its peak of $108,300 recorded on December 17. Data shows that the trading price has been below $100,000 since December 19.
Although momentum is slow, Bitcoin could rise to $105,000 in January.
As investors seek to allocate capital across various asset classes, Bitcoin's market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations. By the end of January, Bitcoin may fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000.
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Three Tracks I Think Will Erupt in 25 Years
The first is the AI sector. Most current AI is still meme concepts, and no standout projects have emerged. After a year-long hot trend, there will definitely be a breakout project that will trigger wealth creation effects.
The second is the DEFI sector, which is essential infrastructure in a bull market. Especially now that Trump is in office, the current planning is extremely favorable for the development of DEFI, particularly for projects that have revenue-generating capabilities, such as AAVE, UNI, etc. The Trump family's continuous investment in DEFI coins is strong proof of this.
Lastly, there is the RWA sector. Institutions like BlackRock are accelerating their layouts. For traditional assets, this provides a new settlement method, allowing illiquid assets to be arbitraged or quickly settled. The influx of funds brought by ETFs has already demonstrated the interest of external capital in the crypto market. Once the trend of RWA erupts in the future, the influx of capital will be unimaginable. Compliance and practicality will be the main themes of this bull market.
The first is the AI sector. Most current AI is still meme concepts, and no standout projects have emerged. After a year-long hot trend, there will definitely be a breakout project that will trigger wealth creation effects.
The second is the DEFI sector, which is essential infrastructure in a bull market. Especially now that Trump is in office, the current planning is extremely favorable for the development of DEFI, particularly for projects that have revenue-generating capabilities, such as AAVE, UNI, etc. The Trump family's continuous investment in DEFI coins is strong proof of this.
Lastly, there is the RWA sector. Institutions like BlackRock are accelerating their layouts. For traditional assets, this provides a new settlement method, allowing illiquid assets to be arbitraged or quickly settled. The influx of funds brought by ETFs has already demonstrated the interest of external capital in the crypto market. Once the trend of RWA erupts in the future, the influx of capital will be unimaginable. Compliance and practicality will be the main themes of this bull market.
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Interest Rate Cut Expectations Lowered, BTC High-Position Consolidation; After Liquidity Recovery, It's a Crazy Bull Market
Since the issuance of the BTC Spot ETF, the correlation between BTC prices and U.S. stocks has become increasingly strong. This has been vividly reflected in the market since November.
After Trump's election victory, U.S. stocks and BTC simultaneously started the 'Trump market.' Trading parties have strong confidence in Trump's economic policies, driving this market to continue rising, lasting until December 18th. On that day, the Fed made hawkish statements, suggesting a possible change in monetary policy, and the market expected the number of rate cuts in 2025 to be significantly revised down from 4 to 2. After this, both U.S. stocks and BTC started significant downward adjustments.
After Trump's election victory, U.S. stocks and BTC simultaneously started the 'Trump market.' Trading parties have strong confidence in Trump's economic policies, driving this market to continue rising, lasting until December 18th. On that day, the Fed made hawkish statements, suggesting a possible change in monetary policy, and the market expected the number of rate cuts in 2025 to be significantly revised down from 4 to 2. After this, both U.S. stocks and BTC started significant downward adjustments.
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Does Alipay's touch-to-pay have vulnerabilities?
It feels like the money spent is the same as flowing water.
In the cryptocurrency world, money is spent like dirt, and life is just patching things up.
It feels like the money spent is the same as flowing water.
In the cryptocurrency world, money is spent like dirt, and life is just patching things up.
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The market is currently experiencing a short-term volatile correction, and part of the profit-making funds at the end of the year will be cashed out. In addition, the market needs time to digest the Fed's possible hawkish turn and policy expectations of reducing the number of interest rate cuts at the beginning of next year. In the short term, there is a lack of new driving force, and the price may fluctuate between $90,000 and $105,000.
After the consolidation phase is over, funds will re-enter the market, and the negative news will be gradually digested. The market will usher in a new round of increases in the first quarter of the first half of the year. The price of Bitcoin may break through the $120,000 mark at this stage, and it is expected to reach $150,000 to $200,000 in an optimistic situation.
Throughout the historical cycle, the Bitcoin bull market usually enters an adjustment period about 15 to 18 months after the halving, which also means that the market is likely to enter an adjustment period after hitting a new high in the middle or second half of the year.
After the consolidation phase is over, funds will re-enter the market, and the negative news will be gradually digested. The market will usher in a new round of increases in the first quarter of the first half of the year. The price of Bitcoin may break through the $120,000 mark at this stage, and it is expected to reach $150,000 to $200,000 in an optimistic situation.
Throughout the historical cycle, the Bitcoin bull market usually enters an adjustment period about 15 to 18 months after the halving, which also means that the market is likely to enter an adjustment period after hitting a new high in the middle or second half of the year.
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The market is currently experiencing a short-term volatile correction, and part of the profit-making funds at the end of the year will be cashed out. In addition, the market needs time to digest the Fed's possible hawkish turn and policy expectations of reducing the number of interest rate cuts at the beginning of next year. In the short term, there is a lack of new driving force, and the price may fluctuate between $90,000 and $105,000.
After the consolidation phase is over, funds will re-enter the market, and the negative news will be gradually digested. The market will usher in a new round of increases in the first quarter of the first half of the year. The price of Bitcoin may break through the $120,000 mark at this stage, and it is expected to reach $150,000 to $200,000 in an optimistic scenario.
Throughout the historical cycle, the Bitcoin bull market usually enters an adjustment period about 15 to 18 months after the halving, which also means that the market is likely to enter an adjustment period after hitting a new high in the middle or second half of the year.
After the consolidation phase is over, funds will re-enter the market, and the negative news will be gradually digested. The market will usher in a new round of increases in the first quarter of the first half of the year. The price of Bitcoin may break through the $120,000 mark at this stage, and it is expected to reach $150,000 to $200,000 in an optimistic scenario.
Throughout the historical cycle, the Bitcoin bull market usually enters an adjustment period about 15 to 18 months after the halving, which also means that the market is likely to enter an adjustment period after hitting a new high in the middle or second half of the year.
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When will the new round of copycat season start? Build positions in batches and operate patiently
The alt season often begins at the high point of Bitcoin. The first time was when BTC hit $69,000 but failed to break through effectively; the second time was when BTC hit $100,000.
The next altcoin cycle is likely to begin after BTC stabilizes above $100,000. I can’t predict the future, and while I hope this will happen in the first quarter of 2025, based on facts, we may also see a repeat of the 2024 Q2 and Q3 volatility in the coming months - we must be prepared for this.
Cottage Season Condition 1: Evaluation of Capital Overflow Condition
The next altcoin cycle is likely to begin after BTC stabilizes above $100,000. I can’t predict the future, and while I hope this will happen in the first quarter of 2025, based on facts, we may also see a repeat of the 2024 Q2 and Q3 volatility in the coming months - we must be prepared for this.
Cottage Season Condition 1: Evaluation of Capital Overflow Condition
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Will the market rise after Trump takes office? What other factors are currently affecting the market trend?
Overall, the current indicator group shows that the crypto market is in the mid-stage of a bull market, with major market indicators well above the cycle lows, but not yet at the levels that marked the previous market tops. High trading volumes and continued growth in DeFi lock-up represent further increases in market activity, while the growth in the total amount of stablecoins and accelerated capital inflows indicate that the market funding environment is loose and liquidity is increasing, providing basic support for the rise in the cryptocurrency market and driving prices higher.
What else can threaten the market at present?
Currently, Bitcoin prices have largely reflected the market’s optimistic expectations for policy shifts. However, this also means that if the policy is delayed or falls short of market expectations, it may have a significant impact on market sentiment. For example, the replacement of the SEC Chairman or the related release process of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan may become potential risk points.
What else can threaten the market at present?
Currently, Bitcoin prices have largely reflected the market’s optimistic expectations for policy shifts. However, this also means that if the policy is delayed or falls short of market expectations, it may have a significant impact on market sentiment. For example, the replacement of the SEC Chairman or the related release process of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan may become potential risk points.
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European and American users are gradually returning from their holidays, and the overall market heat has picked up. However, the market is currently clearly divided, and there has not yet been a relatively sustained hot spot.
In late January, Trump took office, and the entire market was very optimistic about 2025. However, the obvious correction of US stocks in recent days has also brought greater uncertainty to the market. This month's interest rate meeting is very likely to maintain no interest rate cuts, and the market will still have to wait for new positive fermentation in the short term.
In late January, Trump took office, and the entire market was very optimistic about 2025. However, the obvious correction of US stocks in recent days has also brought greater uncertainty to the market. This month's interest rate meeting is very likely to maintain no interest rate cuts, and the market will still have to wait for new positive fermentation in the short term.
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One major trap in a bull market is the inability to sell. Even when the market rises, taking some profits is key to maintaining long-term advantages. Even if you miss higher points, managing risk always takes precedence over chasing higher returns.
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Focus on opportunities for capital rotation in the market and develop your own trading strategy.
In the cryptocurrency market, major players profit through accumulation and distribution, and during this process, on-chain holding behaviors inevitably change. The core of trading strategy lies in how to capture the behavioral patterns of major players through data. For example, during accumulation, major players exhibit specific on-chain behaviors that can be aggregated and transformed into trading signals.
However, when more people adopt similar strategies, major players may adjust their strategies or even conceal their behaviors. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify potential hidden behaviors of major players; this is an ongoing game.
However, when more people adopt similar strategies, major players may adjust their strategies or even conceal their behaviors. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify potential hidden behaviors of major players; this is an ongoing game.
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FTX will begin paying its former users $16 billion in stablecoins on January 3rd. A portion of this is likely to be reinvested into the cryptocurrency market.
Previously, some tokens held by FTX/Alameda, such as SOL/WLD, have been largely sold off. The compensation received by creditors is in cash rather than tokens, indirectly reducing market selling pressure and increasing the likelihood of some compensation funds flowing back into crypto, thereby boosting market sentiment.
Previously, some tokens held by FTX/Alameda, such as SOL/WLD, have been largely sold off. The compensation received by creditors is in cash rather than tokens, indirectly reducing market selling pressure and increasing the likelihood of some compensation funds flowing back into crypto, thereby boosting market sentiment.
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This wave of AI agent concept coins, none were caught