25.1.8-8:58PM(Wednesday)
Recap of yesterday's events: The major cryptocurrency experienced a significant pullback, and I set a small stop loss. The stop loss for Ethereum was 27.5 points, while for Bitcoin it was 1132 points. The long position gamble failed, which is something that needs reflection. Currently, the sentiment is not easy to reignite; it was extinguished before it even began. The retail investors were not allowed to grow and were cut down too harshly. Under such a large drop, being able to control the small stop loss is already the biggest luck; otherwise, it would be all for nothing. Therefore, the risk-reward ratio for each order should really be calculated properly using the Kelly formula!
BTC 4H Market Trend and Strategy
Currently, Bitcoin is at a critical pullback point. If it continues to drop with increased volume, it might go down to around 95800, which is a relatively key level. Yesterday, there was a significant outflow of ETFs; several major institutions sold without any preparation, causing great harm to the market. To prevent a secondary decline, we should wait for the market to weaken in its downward volume before considering entering. Combining this with the Fibonacci retracement lines, the support at 95800 serves as a preliminary entry point for long positions. We still need to observe whether the downward volume weakens and whether the SKDJ can produce a golden cross at the midline of 50, as well as the reversal of the K-line pattern.
ETH 4H Market Trend and Strategy
Currently, Ethereum appears to be pulling back slightly better than Bitcoin because it did not spike high previously; it just collapsed last night without any preparation. However, I still view this as a healthy pullback. We just need to find the right pullback entry points for significant profit potential. This pullback has increased the upper space. According to the Fibonacci lines, the first support below is around 3312, which is also the preliminary entry point for long positions. We still need to check whether the downward volume weakens, whether the SKDJ can show an oversold golden cross at the bottom, and whether the K-line pattern can reverse.
Intraday Strategy
Direction: Up
BTC
B: 95795
T: 97124-98454
S: 95072
ETH
B: 3312
T: 3405-3477
S: Break below 3260