Advisor discusses hot topics:
After Christmas, although the market did not experience the expected intense fluctuations, the Bitcoin remains strong around 99k, which is a good signal. The Christmas market may have ended, but the advisor believes this does not mean the market's enthusiasm will dissipate immediately.
In fact, market fluctuations are likely to continue until around January 6, especially after the US stock market opens tonight. Although liquidity and trading volume will be much lower, this does not mean that market opportunities will disappear.
Reflecting on the past two days, the advisor saw many KOLs discussing the possibility of Bitcoin breaking through prices starting with 7 or 8, and now Bitcoin has broken 99k, which may surprise some.
From a trend analysis perspective, the market is not entirely driven by hype; some investors have begun to gradually accept the expectation that the Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates twice in 2025.
From the market response after Powell's speech, Bitcoin stabilizing around 100k indicates that investors are psychologically prepared for a long-term hawkish policy. The core PCE data released before Christmas may have somewhat eased market sentiment.
Before liquidity is restored, the market may continue to oscillate. In the short term, the movement after the US stock market opens tonight will be key to determining the market direction.
Although most institutional investors in the US are still in holiday mode today, liquidity after the US stock market opens will always be slightly better than during the holiday. So how will US stock investors choose in the face of Bitcoin, which has already broken 99k?
Will they reassess the market situation, muster the courage to continue going long, or choose to hedge and sell off? The answer will soon be revealed. Moreover, the New Year's holiday is approaching, and the market sentiment in the next two days will be crucial.
As for the short-term trend, the advisor personally believes that predictions do not hold much significance. It’s just about floating profits more; no, it's just a temporary paper loss. As long as you confirm that the big trend has not changed, holding positions remains the correct choice.
Additionally, looking at Bitcoin's turnover rate, it has decreased by nearly half since Christmas Eve, which was within the advisor's expectations. Clearly, market liquidity has decreased, and early investors have not continued to participate in the turnover but are in a wait-and-see mode.
Conversely, those retail investors who began bottom-fishing around 92k are gradually moving toward exit. The support from 95k to 100k remains rock solid. Unless there is substantial negative news in the short term, shorting Bitcoin is not recommended.
Short-term fluctuations in a bull market are often of a pinning nature, but the speed of recovery is usually very fast. The current Bitcoin trend should not raise doubts about whether it is in a bull market, even if it is just Bitcoin's bull market.
Although the decline in market liquidity has brought about a wait-and-see sentiment, the support from 95k to 100k has not changed. As long as there is no major negative news, the overall market trend still appears bullish.
Short-term fluctuations may cause some investors to feel anxious, but for those optimistic about the long-term trend, short-term adjustments are merely playful market behavior; ultimately, the trend will determine Bitcoin's movement.
Advisor views the trend:
From the current technical perspective, a rising triangle convergence pattern has formed. If it stabilizes at 99K, further increases can be expected. The rising lows and repeated tests of resistance, if it digests the selling pressure above after multiple tests, can be expected to break through in the short term; however, care must be taken as 100K is a strong resistance level, and selling pressure here should be approached with caution.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 99000
Second resistance level: 100000
Support level reference:
First support level: 98300
Second support level: 97700
Today's suggestion:
The current pattern has a higher probability of rising, but it does not completely rule out the possibility of a decline. Therefore, attention should be paid to the support situation of the trend line below and whether the pattern can be completed. If it breaks below the trend line, the pattern will fail, and the view will shift to a short-term adjustment.
Operate based on the short-term upward trend line, paying attention to rebound opportunities under the condition of rising lows. Adjustments should remain moderate, and it is best not to fall below key lows while closely monitoring the 20-day moving average trend at the one-hour level!
12.26 Advisor's segment prediction:
Long entry reference: 97700-97200 range for light long positions; if it pulls back to the 96600 range, go long directly. Target: 98300-99000
Short entry reference: 99700-100300 range for light short positions. Target: 99000-98300
