Mentor discusses hot topics:
New Year's Day has arrived; I wish everyone a Happy New Year! While everyone likes to make New Year's wishes in their social circles, the mentor reminds you not to treat your social circle as a wishing well, or you might find yourself making the same wish next New Year's Eve, resulting in 'year after year of wishing, year after year of disappointment.'
Back to the point, 2024 is full of challenges and opportunities for the crypto market. From the sprint to the peak to the pullback and adjustment, the market volatility is magnificent. The yearly close is below 100k; although the result is a pin bar, this does not mean it has stopped.
A pin bar indicates that the market may experience a wave of downward liquidity raids for recovery. From the yearly perspective, the mentor personally hopes to recover to around 70k, but this is just an expectation; how things develop depends on the market situation. For now, it is wise to focus on the 85k area, maintaining cautious optimism.
Looking at the monthly chart again, December's bearish close can be considered a good result. As the mentor said earlier, the trend of Bitcoin is characterized by oscillation. The movement in December was as expected, presenting a complex oscillation trend.
The bearish close on the monthly chart has formed the high and low points for December, creating a liquidity gap with prices between 90k and 73.7k. It can be expected that the December low is likely to be raided, and after that, the next step for the market will depend on how much liquidity can be obtained. Therefore, the mentor personally still favors support near 85k, and the later target is naturally to continue moving towards new highs, so the mentor sees a rhythm of falling first and then rising.
In the short term, Bitcoin prices may oscillate around 95k, and the range of oscillation may even increase. However, from an overall trend perspective, the trend has not changed. Recent trading volume and price fluctuations have led many retail investors to hold a pessimistic view of the market at the beginning of 2025.
The main reason is that liquidity is constrained by the Federal Reserve's policies, and the dollar price is currently at high points for 2023 and 2024, even nearing the 2022 high. Therefore, unless the Federal Reserve changes its stance, the market's momentum will more likely come from market sentiment in the short term.
The biggest source of market sentiment, without a doubt, is the US elections. Comparing the elections to the first wave of the market, the transition is the second wave, and the actions to fulfill commitments to the cryptocurrency industry will be the third wave.
Currently, we are at the point of the end of the first wave; maintaining emotional stability is already good. Unless there is new positive news, oscillation may be the most probable outcome. Starting next week, there will be only two weeks left until the transition, and some market movements are expected to gradually emerge.
As for the current Bitcoin, the turnover rate is still high, and early profit-takers have begun to reduce their holdings in recent days. However, from the emotional perspective, the overall market remains stable without signs of panic.
The key support level of 95k remains important, but a significant amount of chips has begun to accumulate around 93.8k, so changes in support levels may not be seen until next week.
My personal view is that if the market performs well before next Monday, I may consider selling Bitcoin at 95k and then waiting for a low buy during the pullback. If the market continues to decline, then 89k might be my third mid-line-level buying opportunity.
However, it is uncertain whether the price will reach 89k in the short term; in any case, it is currently a period of oscillation and consolidation. The future direction is still full of variables, and no one can predict it. But as the ancients said, heroes emerge in chaotic times.
In such a complex and ever-changing market, those who can remain calm amid the tumult will surely be the ones who laugh last. Everyone should wait patiently, cherish the moment, and remember that opportunities in 2025 will always belong to those who are prepared.
Mentor's view on the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 94200
Second resistance level: 95300
Support level reference:
First support level: 93100
Second support level: 92200
Today's suggestion:
In the short term, Bitcoin lacks further upward driving factors, so attention can be paid to whether a slow bottom formation will occur, and based on this, look for ultra-short-term rebound opportunities. The current price is in the trading range of 93~94K; if it continues to maintain in this range, a rebound viewpoint can be kept.
If the first resistance level is broken, it needs to be observed whether the price can stabilize above 94K and the 120-day moving average. If so, one can attempt ultra-short-term rebound operations.
Currently in a trading range and forming a bottom, a breakout through resistance is expected. If it rebounds to the upside, further increases may be possible. However, due to strong resistance in the trading range, it is suggested to consider bullish operations only after gradually breaking through resistance.
After breaking through, it is in an oscillation range; observe for signs of bottom formation and maintain a rebound viewpoint. Moreover, the US stock market is closed tonight, so smaller fluctuations may occur; it is suggested to maintain operations within the oscillation range and pay attention to entry opportunities at the lower edge of the range.
1.1 Mentor's segment pre-positioning:
Long entry reference: light position long near 93100; if it retraces to the 92200-91500 range, go long directly. Target: 94200-95300
Short entry reference: not currently referenced