At 10:00 AM today, Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000, followed by a rebound, currently reported at $101,600. This pullback is not entirely surprising, as Bitcoin has been near historical highs, making short-term market fluctuations inevitable. However, in the long run, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong. Firstly, the ongoing monetary easing policies of global central banks continue to drive asset prices up, including digital assets like Bitcoin.

It is worth noting that the US interest rate cut cycle plays a significant role in the rise of Bitcoin prices. The Federal Reserve has once again cut rates by 25 basis points in its 2024 annual interest rate decision, bringing the benchmark rate down to the range of 4.25%-4.50%. This marks the Fed's third consecutive rate cut and signifies that it has cumulatively cut rates by 100 basis points this year. While rate cuts benefit traditional financial markets, a more accommodative monetary environment undoubtedly provides support for digital assets like Bitcoin. As interest rates decline, investors will increasingly be inclined to seek high-risk, high-return investment targets, and Bitcoin's decentralized, anti-inflation characteristics align perfectly with these demands.

MicroStrategy's Fundraising with Bitcoin: A Stronger Long-term Bullish Signal

MicroStrategy's strategic layout in the cryptocurrency field has been a focal point of market attention. It has been reported that MicroStrategy's co-founder and chairman, Michael Saylor, revealed that the company plans to raise funds through fixed-income securities to continue purchasing Bitcoin. Saylor stated that after the current fundraising plan is exhausted, the company will turn to a more focused approach on fixed-income securities to raise funds for cryptocurrency purchases. MicroStrategy's stock price has risen approximately 500% this year, significantly outperforming the increase in Bitcoin. This indicates that MicroStrategy's strategy has received widespread recognition in the market and validates the huge potential of Bitcoin as a long-term investment target.

Additionally, MicroStrategy has previously raised approximately $6.2 billion through methods such as issuing convertible bonds, further strengthening market confidence in Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Although some analysts point out that MicroStrategy may pause its Bitcoin purchases in January next year due to internal trading restrictions, this phenomenon does not affect the company's overall long-term strategy towards Bitcoin. On the contrary, this periodic adjustment may bring healthier price corrections to the market, reducing risks associated with excessive speculation.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's attitude towards Bitcoin: The regulatory environment may witness breakthroughs.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated at a press conference following the FOMC meeting that the Fed has no intention of holding Bitcoin and pointed out that this is a legal issue that Congress needs to discuss. Although this statement may seem unrelated to Bitcoin's long-term prospects on the surface, it actually reflects the growing importance of the regulatory environment in the US concerning cryptocurrencies. Although the Fed does not directly hold Bitcoin, this statement could imply that cryptocurrencies will receive a clearer regulatory framework in the future.

Currently, multiple countries and regions around the world are actively exploring regulatory policies for digital currencies. For example, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission recently issued licenses to four virtual asset trading platforms under an expedited licensing process, including Cloud Account Greater Bay Area Technology (Hong Kong) Limited, DFX Labs Company Limited, Hong Kong Digital Asset Trading Group Limited, and Thousand Whales Technology (BVI) Limited. This indicates that Hong Kong's regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry is becoming increasingly mature, providing a good reference for digital asset trading platforms in other regions.

Globally, the trend towards compliance in the cryptocurrency market is accelerating. Although US regulators currently take a cautious stance towards Bitcoin, as the market size continues to expand, more and more regulatory policies are expected to be gradually introduced in the future. We can foresee that in this process, Bitcoin, as an asset class, will gradually gain legal recognition and become an important component of global investors' asset allocation.

The Bank of Japan's policies and their correlation with the global market.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates in December 2024 and paused rate hikes for the third consecutive time. This decision reflects the Bank of Japan's cautious attitude towards the uncertainties in the global economic environment. While Japan maintains a low-interest-rate policy, other major economies worldwide are also using monetary easing to stimulate economic growth. This provides a more favorable market environment for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

The Bank of Japan's policies do not directly impact the cryptocurrency market, but they have significant indirect effects. As global central banks generally maintain accommodative monetary policies, investors will have to face a decline in deposit returns and a reduction in investment options due to low interest rates. In this context, Bitcoin's status as 'digital gold' will become increasingly prominent, making it a strong choice for a safe-haven asset.

The US spot Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of 643 units yesterday, worth $2.5 million.

The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 2,567 units yesterday, worth $272 million.

BTC: Yesterday, Bitcoin closed with a 'medium bearish candle' and pulled back to the 30-day moving average. The magnitude of yesterday's pullback was significant, accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating that there was some selling pressure at high levels, with bearish forces strengthening. Currently positioned above the 30-day moving average indicates that this position has strong support.

In summary, considering recent market performance and contract clearing data, the current high-frequency fluctuations in the market are likely aimed at clearing contracts and leverage positions for both bulls and bears. The market is expected to experience a volatile rebound, but caution is needed regarding a potential retracement due to insufficient rebound strength.

ETH: Yesterday, Ethereum closed with a 'large bearish candle'. Considering its overly high long-short ratio, it is normal for ETH to experience a certain degree of pullback and break below the 30-day moving average. This pullback is necessary to clean out contracts and leverage positions, making it easier for the market to rally in the future. A certain degree of rebound may be expected in the short term, so patience is essential during this adjustment; the overall trend remains positive, and there is still optimism for future gains.

Altcoins: Bitcoin's pullback has led to a significant adjustment in the altcoin market, with a lack of funds and market vitality. However, this adjustment has also made the market more robust. In the short term, a volatile trend may continue, and whether a recovery will occur in the future depends on whether funds will flow back. If funds restore, the market may gradually warm up.

Today's Fear and Greed Index: 75 (Greed)#加密市场回调