U.S. Republican presidential candidate Trump announced early on the morning of the 6th that he had won the 2024 presidential election, marking his return to the White House. This news has not only had a significant impact on the global cryptocurrency market but also signals a historic shift in the U.S. government's attitude towards digital assets. In Trump's earlier speeches in 2024, he mentioned a series of plans, including firing current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and reappointing a leader more supportive of cryptocurrencies; urging the U.S. government to hold strategic Bitcoin reserves; promising not to introduce central bank digital currency (CBDC) during his term; and vowing to make the U.S. a global cryptocurrency hub. Additionally, Trump's victory in today's U.S. election caused the price of Bitcoin to soar, setting a new historical high of $75,400.

As the U.S. elections approach, the focus of the cryptocurrency market is gradually shifting towards the potential impact of the election results. QCP Capital noted that the market is exhibiting cautious sentiment ahead of the election results, primarily reflected in the decline of leveraged perpetual contract positions and reduced price volatility. However, data from the options market shows that some investors are preparing for a possible breakthrough market, particularly the large purchases of options expiring at the end of November with a strike price of $75,000, indicating the market's optimistic expectations for future prices.
Bernstein's prediction is more specific. According to their report, regardless of the outcome of the election, there remains a possibility that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. If Trump wins, Bitcoin may surge to between $80,000 and $90,000 before the inauguration on January 20, 2025; if Harris wins, the market may see some pullback, but Bitcoin is still expected to maintain a range around $50,000, which is higher than the previous estimate of $30,000 to $40,000. Historically, Bitcoin has performed exceptionally well after several U.S. elections. Whether in the 2012, 2016, or 2020 elections, Bitcoin's price reached a peak within a year, which seems to have formed a trend. If this trend continues, according to CoinDesk's calculations, Bitcoin's price could reach approximately $103,500 in 2025. The combination of historical patterns and current market sentiment instills confidence in the future; perhaps this election will become a catalyst for a new bull market for Bitcoin.

The election is now entering a 'melee' phase! The latest polls show that Trump and Harris are now tied in support, each at 49%. Harris's support has dropped by 2%, making the election situation even more uncertain. Regardless of who comes to power, the outcome of this election may bring about a wave of 'new trends'!
Let's talk about Trump first; if he wins, JPMorgan strategist David Kelly indicates that the Federal Reserve may 'hit the brakes' in December and pause interest rate cuts! After all, Trump is not one to be taken lightly; his expansionary policies will inevitably push inflation upward. Additionally, he may initiate a new round of infrastructure plans and trade wars, which are expected to increase market volatility. However, this presents a good opportunity for Bitcoin, as when the 'money printer' slows down, crypto assets will attract more safe-haven funds!

CZ (Zhao Changpeng) is back! With his 300 push-ups and expectations for the "recovery" of the future market, the crypto world is lively again! Zhao Changpeng's appearance at a certain blockchain week in Dubai made people feel that even after experiencing some "dark moments," he remains the confident and humorous CZ. Imagine, even the prison guards are asking him, "What coins to buy?" This is so interesting; it seems even regulators can't help but want to learn some investment "secrets"!
Will 2024 be the "year of recovery"? It sounds very reasonable! Historical cycles tell us that 2012, 2016, and 2020 were all called "years of recovery," and the following years soared. If this pattern holds, next year may be the bull market we have long awaited! After all, once the "recovery" is done in 2024, and another wave of bull market comes in 2025, that would be a dream for countless people in the crypto world. However, this does not mean we should all in right now, as the market's fluctuations are unpredictable. But CZ's actions and optimistic attitude indeed give us confidence! Seeing him do 300 push-ups shows that no matter how great the pressure, it can be resolved. What we need to do is to keep a positive and optimistic attitude like him and patiently wait for the market to warm up. In 2024, let's be ready to welcome the "year of recovery" together and prepare for the upcoming bull market!

Happy Birthday, Bitcoin! Sixteen years ago today, Satoshi Nakamoto mysteriously published a 9-page white paper on the P2P Foundation website, and thus the world gained a 'treasure'—Bitcoin! In just 16 years, Bitcoin has completed its 'rebellious phase' and become the 'digital gold' sought after by many.
Looking back over the past 16 years, Bitcoin has experienced dramatic rises and falls, being both 'abandoned' and 'sought after', yet this has not hindered its recognition as a valuable asset. Now, not only are giants like MicroStrategy and Tesla 'hoarding coins', but more and more institutions and investors view it as a 'secret weapon' against inflation. Bitcoin is now 16 years old, in its 'youth', with limitless potential for the future. Perhaps one day, it will truly become a part of the global financial system and even change the financial landscape of the world. Let's wait and see how it continues to shine in the future!

According to CME's 'Fed Watch', the market expects a 98.8% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in November, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 1.2%. This indicates that the market nearly unanimously believes the Federal Reserve will take action to cut rates in November to address the pressures of slowing economic growth and falling inflation.
For the cryptocurrency market, the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve usually brings positive effects. Rate cuts mean increased liquidity, and a rise in dollar liquidity will benefit the inflow of funds into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. As interest rates decrease, investors in the market will reallocate assets in search of higher returns, which could drive Bitcoin prices further up. Additionally, data shows that the market expects a larger rate cut by December, with a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut reaching 78.3%, demonstrating strong market expectations for further easing of monetary policy. In the short term, the Bitcoin market is likely to receive favorable stimuli from liquidity easing, but attention must also be paid to the uncertainties of Federal Reserve policies. If the Federal Reserve's policies do not align with market expectations, it could lead to significant price fluctuations.

VanEck's latest prediction brings great confidence to Bitcoin enthusiasts! According to their analysis, Bitcoin is expected to become a global reserve asset by 2050, with a price potentially reaching an astounding $3 million. This prediction is filled with optimism and anticipation. From the characteristics of Bitcoin, this prediction is not unfounded. Bitcoin possesses the qualities of decentralization and fixed supply, meeting the basic requirements of a reserve asset. Against the backdrop of rising inflation and increasing global economic uncertainty, more and more institutions and individuals are beginning to view Bitcoin as 'digital gold.' With the digital transformation of the global financial system, Bitcoin's recognition continues to rise, and its opportunity to become a reserve asset is expanding.

According to the latest data from CME 'FedWatch', the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in November is as high as 97.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 2.3%. This data almost confirms the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in November. With inflationary pressures gradually easing and the US economy slowing down, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will adjust its monetary policy by lowering interest rates. Additionally, expectations for a rate cut in December are also beginning to rise, with data showing that the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 0.6%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis points cut is 27.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis points cut is as high as 71.7%.

According to the latest Dune data, the on-chain total holdings of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF have surpassed 1 million BTC, reaching approximately 1.04 million BTC, accounting for 5.26% of the total Bitcoin supply, with an on-chain holding value of about $69.1 billion. This data marks the rapid development of the Bitcoin ETF market while also highlighting institutional investors' recognition of Bitcoin as a long-term value digital asset.
From a financial perspective, the rapid growth in Bitcoin ETF holdings indicates two important trends. Firstly, more institutional investors are entering the market, further driving the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin. ETF products provide a safer, compliant investment channel, allowing many traditional investors to avoid the complexities and risks associated with directly holding cryptocurrencies. Secondly, the Bitcoin ETF holdings have surpassed 1 million BTC, indicating that market confidence in Bitcoin is gradually recovering, especially amid high macroeconomic uncertainty, with investors seeking safe-haven assets. Additionally, it is noteworthy that 1.04 million BTC accounts for 5.26% of the current Bitcoin supply, a significant proportion reflecting the important position of ETFs in the market. This will further compress the circulating supply of Bitcoin in the market, thus driving up prices, especially as demand continues to increase. In the long term, as more countries approve spot Bitcoin ETFs, global capital will continue to flow into the Bitcoin market, steadily pushing its price up.

Recent data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is as high as 93%! This has clearly improved market sentiment, with investors anticipating that loose monetary policies will inject new vitality into the economy. Since the Fed began its rate hike cycle, there has been concern about the high interest rate environment, especially the negative impact of rising borrowing costs on business investment and consumer spending. However, as inflation gradually becomes controlled, rate cuts have become possible, and signs of a shift in the Fed's policy have emerged.
Looking ahead, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points by December is 65.4%, which suggests that there may be larger scale easing policies towards the end of the year. The market expects that rate cuts will release more liquidity, which will help boost asset prices for stocks, cryptocurrencies, and others, especially against the backdrop of recent global economic weakness, rate cuts will provide important support for the economy. For the Federal Reserve, the rate cut in November is not only a measure to respond to current economic challenges but may also signify the end of the rate hike cycle. Behind this policy shift is the Fed's confidence in the future of the economy and its optimistic attitude towards controlling inflation. Market expectations for the November rate cut are high, and investors are filled with confidence about the future. As the rate cut approaches, various asset prices may show positive reactions, increasing investment opportunities. For ordinary investors, closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy direction will be key to successful investing in the coming months.