Bitcoin reserve strategy may become a new weapon for the U.S. to reduce debt—potential for 35% debt reduction
Recently, VanEck released a report that proposed a bold idea: if the U.S. establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins based on the bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the national debt of the U.S. could potentially be reduced by 35% over the next 24 years. VanEck's head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz pointed out in the report that if Bitcoin grows at a 25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), U.S. debt could shrink by $42 trillion.
Specifically, VanEck assumes that Bitcoin will steadily rise from its current price, ultimately reaching $42.3 million by 2049, while U.S. national debt will continue to grow. According to the assumptions, by 2049, U.S. national debt will reach $119.3 trillion, which means the appreciation potential of Bitcoin reserves could offset 35% of it, about $42 trillion in liabilities. Although this assumption is filled with imagination, it also provides a new perspective, leading us to a deeper understanding of the value and function of Bitcoin as an asset.
Coinbase's 2025 cryptocurrency market outlook: opportunities in stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and DeFi
Another market outlook from Coinbase is also worth noting, especially its predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025. Coinbase points out that the next few years will be a crucial period for the further development of the cryptocurrency industry, particularly in areas such as stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and DeFi.
First of all, the prospects for stablecoins are very broad. Coinbase believes they are just getting started, and more regulatory policies may emerge in the coming years, promoting the widespread adoption of stablecoins. The growth of RWA (Real-World Asset) tokenization is another highlight of the cryptocurrency industry, and this market is expected to achieve significant growth in the future. As asset tokenization deepens, the boundaries between traditional finance and crypto assets will become increasingly blurred, and more physical assets will enter blockchain platforms as tradable tokens.
In addition, Coinbase also mentioned that the launch of crypto ETFs will change the supply and demand dynamics of cryptocurrencies. With the participation of more traditional investors, market liquidity will greatly improve, driving up the prices of crypto assets. The revival of DeFi is also expected to enter a new era. As protocols and infrastructure continue to improve, decentralized finance will provide users with more diverse and low-cost financial services, promoting innovation across the industry.
Finally, the regulatory attitude is expected to change in the coming years. Coinbase anticipates that while the cryptocurrency industry currently faces many regulatory challenges, as technology matures and policies become clearer, the future regulatory environment will shift from headwinds to tailwinds. The 'legalization' process of the cryptocurrency industry will accelerate globally.
Metaplanet and El Salvador increase Bitcoin holdings—accelerating entry of global institutional investors
In the trend of global Bitcoin holdings, the actions of Metaplanet and El Salvador cannot be ignored. Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, announced it purchased 619.70 bitcoins for 9.5 billion yen (approximately $60.68 million), increasing its total holdings to 1,761.98 BTC. It is evident that more and more institutional investors are beginning to see Bitcoin as an important reserve asset and gradually incorporating it into their asset allocation.
At the same time, El Salvador's Bitcoin purchasing actions are continuing. According to Lookonchain's monitoring, in the past week, El Salvador purchased 29 BTC, with a total amount of approximately $2.84 million, bringing its total holdings to 5,995 BTC, approximately $562 million. The large-scale purchases by these countries and institutions undoubtedly reflect the growing appeal of Bitcoin as a reserve asset globally.
Zhao Changpeng's question: The calculation method for the UAE holding $40 billion in Bitcoin remains a mystery
Recently, Zhao Changpeng expressed doubts on social media about the UAE holding $40 billion in Bitcoin. He pointed out that this figure seems excessively large and its source is difficult to verify. According to media reports, the UAE's Bitcoin reserves have approached $40 billion, far exceeding previous expectations. Zhao Changpeng also stated in response that the data collection process is quite challenging, especially in the absence of transparent data support, making it hard to confirm its accuracy.
This event has attracted widespread attention, especially against the backdrop of the UAE, a traditional oil-rich country, gradually turning to the cryptocurrency market. Nevertheless, Zhao Changpeng's doubts also highlight the shortcomings of the cryptocurrency market in terms of information transparency and data accuracy, a point that still requires the industry to strengthen self-discipline and regulation in the future.
Trump's ZF may accelerate the launch of DOGE ETF
Finally, Bloomberg analysts pointed out that the launch of the DOGE ETF may have to wait until Trump is re-elected. The expansion of the ETF market has been a hot topic in the cryptocurrency industry, and the launch of DOGE as a globally popular digital currency is considered an important part of the market. However, Bloomberg analysts believe that due to the uncertainties in the current environment, the approval of the DOGE ETF may need to wait until Trump or Atkins officially takes office. This expectation, while seemingly optimistic, also reveals the deep-rooted contradictions that still exist between the crypto market and traditional financial markets.
According to Token Unlocks data, a large amount of tokens such as IMX and DBX will unlock this week, including:
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3:00 PM Beijing time on December 25, accounting for 0.44% of the current circulation, valued at about $13.22 million;
Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 26, accounting for 0.05% of the current circulation, valued at about $16.3 million;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 27, accounting for 1.45% of the current circulation, valued at about $32.12 million;
Beldex (DBX) will unlock approximately 330 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 30, accounting for 4.78% of the current circulation, valued at about $25.46 million.
BTC: Yesterday, Bitcoin closed with a 'small bearish line,' indicating a relatively weak short-term trend. The weekly level closed with a 'large bearish line,' indicating an overall bearish market sentiment. The flow of ETF funds after the U.S. stock market opens tonight will be key to influencing market trends. If there is a significant outflow of funds, it may intensify bearish sentiment, putting further pressure on Bitcoin prices; but if the outflow is limited or there is net inflow, the market still has a chance to maintain the current fluctuating rebound pattern.
Overall, this week looks like a fluctuating rebound upwards, but after the rebound, the market is likely to choose a fluctuating downward trend. It is estimated that this round of adjustment will require at least a month or even longer.
ETH: Yesterday, Ethereum closed with a 'spindle line,' currently at the 60-day moving average position. Overall, the trend this week looks like a fluctuating rebound upwards, but the height of the rebound may be limited. It is expected that after the rebound, the market may choose a fluctuating downward trend, so patience is needed for adjustments.
Altcoins: The performance of the altcoin market is generally a rebound from an oversold state linked to Bitcoin. Although there has been a short-term recovery, signals for a revival of capital flow remain unclear. To see sustained growth in altcoins, the market needs more speculative sentiment and capital inflow. However, currently, the inflow of funds is unstable, which makes the rise of altcoins lack lasting momentum. Overall, there has not yet been a truly strong sector in the market, and all rises are just minor fluctuations driven by Bitcoin, lacking independent upward momentum. In other words, the 'spring' for altcoins may not have arrived yet, and the market is still in a waiting phase.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 70 (Greed)#圣诞行情分析