A cover letter has been published regarding the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate.
Key points:
- The Federal Reserve forecasts only a rate decrease in 2025, totaling 0.5 percentage points. And another 0.5 percentage points in 2026 (this estimate is a 'sponsor' of the intensified correction of BTC - already at -1.3%).
- Inflation has approached the target of 2%.
- The unemployment rate has risen but remains low.
- Since the beginning of 2024, labor market conditions have improved.
- Risks related to the Federal Reserve's dual mandate (inflation and labor market) are balanced.
- Economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace, but economic prospects are uncertain.
- Further monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve depends on incoming macroeconomic data.
Essentially everything, except the first point - nothing new. But the first point is very important and negative for risky asset markets. Such a forecast in the statement will make Powell's speech even more significant.