The low of the closed daily candle of BTC was set exactly at $100,000. Not to sleep, we watched both Bitcoin and altcoins at the time of the candle closure. The psychological level of $100,000 for BTC held, although the candlestick structure after this dump is not good for bulls.
The candles of December 16-18 - this is not a pure 'Evening Star' - but it absorbs all the growth of the previous four days + breaks through an important volume and mirror level of $101,376. If on the hourly timeframes the level of $102,757 was indicated as important, then on the daily it is exactly $101,376. The price clearly consolidated below it from December 6-14 before it impulsively went to a new ATH.
Moreover, although there were not so many (relatively) liquidations in the past day - the candle of December 18 looks worse in terms of BTC bulls' reaction than the candle of December 5 (huge doji) and December 9 (significant lower shadow). The firmness of bulls in buying the correction has weakened this time. Apparently, positive sentiment will start to decline.
As long as the price on the daily timeframe does not return above $101,376 - it is reasonable to expect a test of other volume supports:
- $99,481,
- range of $97,553-$98,433. At its beginning, the EMA 50 of the 12-hour timeframe is currently passing, which was tested on December 5 and 9. There were no closures below it since October 9, when the price was still around $60,000.
Locally, on the smaller four-hour timeframe, our indicator shows a potential low structure, and this is a chance for a reversal. The third and last candle is the current one.
It is permissible for it to rewrite the low. But within the idea of reversal, the low of this or the previous candle (that is, $100,000) should already become the extreme from which the reversal occurs. After the closure of the current candle, to maintain the structure, it is no longer possible to update the low today. According to our indicator on the four-hour timeframe, the last, third basic target of the correction remains - $98,997. Accordingly, if it is to be closed - then in the next 3 hours.
It is worth noting separately that despite the recent decline, the price of #BTC remains in a stable uptrend according to our indicator on the 12-hour timeframe (started on October 14 at a price of $64,920) and on the daily timeframe (started on September 18 at a price of $61,759).
The past correction reset the ascending candlestick structures on these timeframes. This is generally a plus, as they were already at highs or near them. Now growth can continue. But it is important not to catch a false start here.
For us, signs of #BTC returning to growth after the dump will now be:
- price consolidation above the EMA 50 on the four-hour timeframe (currently at $102,711),
- return to a stable uptrend on the 30-minute, preferably also on the hourly timeframe,
- closing the daily candle above $101,376, and preferably also $102,757.
Until then, the asset locally remains in correction.
We predicted the upward reversal of the BTC price volatility index from December 18-20. On Saturday, December 14, we wrote: 'We expect a return of volatility growth for BTC from December 18-21.' We expected this could be a pump in the framework of the Santa Claus rally 😬. But Santa has again let retail down. However, the reversal of volatility seems to have already happened, and very impressively. We will wait for the breakdown of the descending candlestick structure to assess how long volatility will continue to rise.
