Could MicroStrategy become the Terra Luna and FTX of the next bear market in cryptocurrency?
Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy recommended last week that everyone invest from 2-3% to 10% of their assets in #BTC. And just this week, he issued a warning that a crash in BTC could trigger a massive decline in the stock market: "If BTC falls, say, by 30, 40, or 50% in one day - there will be many bankruptcies, clearinghouses will not be able to pick up the pieces."
The first thought that comes to mind is, "What is there to wait for from MicroStrategy?" After all, they are the flagships among institutional investors buying BTC.
For MicroStrategy to go bankrupt, the price of BTC must drop to $16,500. This data was provided by CEO #CryptoQuant Ki Yun Joo based on the fact that MicroStrategy's current debt is $7 billion, while the value of their BTC is around $47 billion.
In his assessment, "MicroStrategy will only go bankrupt in the event of an asteroid hitting the Earth." Such a conclusion is drawn by Ki Yun Joo due to the fact that the price of #BTC has never fallen below the average level at which it was purchased by long-term investors. Currently, this level is around $30,000.
Here it should be noted that everything happens for the first time. Plus, the constant new purchases by MicroStrategy raise the price of BTC for their potential bankruptcy. In the previous cycle, this price was around $4,000, and expectations were already circulating in the market when #BTC fell below $16,000.
Yesterday, MicroStrategy reported a new purchase, acquiring 15,350 BTC for about $1.5 billion at a price of $100,386. This is the sixth consecutive week that the company has issued purchase announcements on Mondays. It is also a significant first purchase by MicroStrategy at a price above $100,000.
After the purchase, Michael Saylor stated that the average price of their investments in BTC has risen to $61,725. But he is not concerned about this growth; he compared BTC purchases to investments in building Manhattan:
"Every time real estate prices go up, they issue more debt instruments to build more real estate. That's why buildings in New York are so tall; this has been going on for 350 years. I would call it an economy."
As of now, Saylor's company has a "paper profit" in BTC of already $20 billion (!). They hold 439,000 BTC on their balance sheet.
Recall that last week, MicroStrategy was finally added to the Nasdaq 100 index. The changes were announced on Friday after the stock market closed. They will take effect on December 23. The company immediately breaks into the TOP-40 of the index by market capitalization. Recall that the index consists of the 100 largest non-financial companies by market capitalization whose securities are traded on #Nasdaq. Adding stocks to the index means that ETFs, including the popular Invesco QQQ Trust with assets of $325 billion, will automatically start purchasing them.
#Benchmark writes that MicroStrategy's addition to the Nasdaq 100 could pave the way for the company to be included in the S&P 500 index. Analysts believe that as early as the summer of 2025, MicroStrategy could be added to this index as well.
The British The Sunday Times reports that "MicroStrategy is the most popular purchase on Hargreaves Lansdown" (a TOP investment platform in the UK).
And the publication Barron's (owned by "Dow Jones & Company") writes: "MicroStrategy is winning by breaking Wall Street rules. Avoid these stocks."
Barron's assessment is not the ultimate truth, but it has the right to exist. The company's approach to investments indeed raises questions - they are betting on a single asset, which is volatile. Plus, it is still not entirely clear how the market will react to the start of MicroStrategy's BTC sales. At some point, it will happen. Even if the "bitcoin bank" strategy is implemented - in the next bear market, Saylor and Co will most likely have to sell.
Therefore, his task is to do everything possible so that in the current cycle BTC reaches the highest possible high and then achieves a deserved (not just for the sake of words) status of "digital gold." Not crashing drastically, while maintaining acceptable volatility for their portfolio. This is what Saylor is focused on, making loud statements and provoking governments to create BTC reserves.