Brother Su, these two charts are very interesting.
However, the growth rate of asset prices is greater than the inflation growth rate.
This is because money has a time value. But the time value of money comes from nature; I use air, land, and water for free... I have never paid the Earth for it. However, our excessive consumption of resources and the destruction of the ecological environment will eventually lead to retaliation when it becomes excessive.
This is the reason for the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Don't turn it into some conspiracy theory; humanity's destruction of nature leads to ecological imbalance, and ecological imbalance means that some species will leave us while others will proliferate. This can result in the outbreak of certain viruses.
Such a situation is likely to occur after an economic boom, so the pandemic coincided with the tail end of the Kondratieff wave cycle.
This is the current economic environment.
Returning to these two charts, rather than saying that expectations > reality, it is more accurate to say that reality < expectations.
Because expectations come first, and reality follows.
This is why I suggest that friends only open contracts when they feel 90% confident, because when expectations are at 90%, reality might be only 80% or even less.
This is also why there is a principle of prudence in accounting, as it aims to be cautious based on expectations, making it closer to reality.
In simple terms, it means there should be a process of 'removing optimism' when making judgments.
Why doesn’t MicroStrategy buy at the very bottom? Why do institutions not sell at the top? It's the same principle.
If an institution expects that 1 million is the peak, they might start selling at 900,000. Because institutions are the most rational; they understand this principle of 'removing optimism.'