➤ Pullback Signal
Brother Bee mentioned the pullback signal in the group on Saturday night. Saturday and Sunday are supposed to be rest days for institutions, so altcoins should be more active. The altcoins in the previous two weeks were indeed quite active.
In addition, according to on-chain data analyst Twitter @Murphychen888 (strongly recommended to follow), the signal for a phase peak includes: LTH accelerating distribution, huge profits exiting, and the higher the price, the lower the profit peak.
It is more apparent that when BTC fell to around 94 and 90, altcoins hardly dropped. However, this time, just breaking 98, altcoins are dropping very actively.
These are all signals of a pullback.
➤ Pullback
Firstly, some say the Syrian conflict is a factor, which may be one of the influencing factors. Some war factors may not necessarily affect liquidity but can influence sentiment.
Secondly, interest rate cuts have just started for less than a quarter, and QT is still ongoing, so liquidity in the market is still not loose, hence the weak rise is not surprising.
Again, the pullback at the beginning of a bull market is also logical. Because at the start of a bull market, the market remains relatively cautious. On one hand, it is more sensitive to some bearish factors. On the other hand, the main players (whales) wish to further accumulate, thus they will use bearish events to depress prices for accumulation.
In 2017 there was 94, I don't remember the reason, and in 2021 at the beginning of the bull market, there was also a wave of 28 days of pullback with BTC pulling back by 25%.
If this wave continues to pull back, it should correspond to the pullbacks in September 2017 and January 2021.
Brother Bee thinks that the pullback will at most go below 80,000 for a brief dip, which is about a 20% pullback. Just at 78,000 and 79,000 there is a gap to fill. Moreover, a bearish event is needed to stimulate it.
➤ Bull Market
As long as we see the term "rebound", the big trend is still downward.
As long as we see the term "pullback", the big trend is still upward.
There is no need to worry about the bull market; considering BTC is more sensitive to macro factors, BTC should just be at the beginning of a bull market now, and 2026, at least the first half of 2026, should still be a loose cycle.
Some say various altcoins have risen, but in fact, some smaller coins, not referring to meme coins, are those with fundamentals and some products and technologies that haven't really risen yet.
For example, these two small coins of mine, #aleph# and #fort#, haven't really risen yet. Both of these coins are listed on Coinbase and have technology, products, and ecosystems. The former is decentralized storage, and the latter is Web3 security.
So, we have just gone through the mountain's spring season, and in the future, there will still be altcoin summer and altcoin autumn.