The BTC exchange rate on Saturday entered a tight range, with a range of $98,300-$98,908. The champagne bottle under $100,000 is still waiting for its moment.
The breakout of the ascending trend line from November 5 has failed, but at the same time, the price is not going into a downtrend even on the 15-minute time frame. The range has led to the point that to reach $100,000, the asset's price doesn't even need to break the trend line from November 5. It is currently at the level of $100,795.
Considering the situation on higher time frames - #BTC has only November 23 and 24 to confidently reach $100,000. Or at most, Monday, November 25. Because next week is already the first of the range weeks we are expecting. Reversal signals on the weekly, two-day time frames, are also Strong signals.
We are waiting for a range for several weeks and assume that its lower level could well be the volume level of $84,737. Entering a range of such a wide range for us will be a correction below the volume level of $91,306.
BUT at the same time, despite expectations of a correction/range on higher time frames, it's too early to talk about the start of this movement while:
- the price is in a stable uptrend on the 15-minute time frame,
- the price is in a stable uptrend on the 30-minute time frame,
- the price is holding above the volume level of $97,511.
The first two signals are generally dangerous to short. And it doesn't make sense to close long/spot positions while the price is in an uptrend on the 15-minute time frame.
Will BTC manage to reach $100,000 before the correction/range? So far, based on the technical picture, we believe it is more likely yes. But it is still difficult to say for sure. With correction signals on the higher time frame, there are signals for growth on the lower time frames. For example, on the two-hour time frame, the asset currently has a potential low signal. Plus, in general, the movements since yesterday still resemble a 'Double Bottom' or 'Adam and Eve'. With the start of the development upon breaking $98,780 and targets around $99,250. And this is already a claim for a return to a stable uptrend on the hourly time frame.
Uncertainty is high, everything will be decided in the next two days.
By the way, futures trading on BTC at CME ended yesterday at $99,815. The level is a 'magnet' for Monday.
According to the BTC price volatility index, the decline has been ongoing since November 17 and has reached the 50-day EMA. We expect a reversal and an increase in volatility from November 24-26.
