The remaining unfilled gap on BTC futures on CME has decreased to $99,275-$99,515. Significantly, the initial was $98,565-$99,515.
As mentioned, the probability of closing the gap is high. The question is how high they can push the spot price. Specifically, will they drive the price up to $100,000?
The situation is contradictory, and we do not have a clear expectation for today. There are key levels and trend levels that are important for assessment. We will stop here for now. This remark is more for the users of Binance Square, who after reading may write 'got it, up or down'. Yes, there are times of uncertainty. In such moments, markers are important.
Below is a general analysis of the picture 👇
There is a local chance of a gap filling on the spot chart, as rightly pointed out by a subscriber in our chat. Our assessment is that there is a chance of partial fulfillment. The full target for the pattern, starting from today, is around $101,000.
In favor of fulfillment is the morning transition to a stable uptrend on the hourly timeframe and the overall continuation of growth since yesterday. However, against it is a whole series: the fact that these are lower timeframes, the price is at global highs, on the hourly and two-hour timeframes - a signal of a potential high. The latter suggests, at the very least, that the current attempt to break the figure in the last hours is false. At best, there will be consolidation. If it weren't for the gap on CME and the proximity to historical highs, we would rather bet on a breakdown of the figure.
Regarding yesterday's indicator signal of a transition to a stable downtrend on the two-hour and four-hour timeframes - the situation is contradictory. Currently, after the signals, there is a 'full-bodied' bounce on the verge of possible cancellation on both timeframes. A breakdown is likely, we remind you, if the price settles above $98,453 (for the two-hour timeframe, and here the situation is on the edge) and $98,813 (for the four-hour timeframe). Although higher timeframes do not give peace and make one wait for a potential breakdown, if it occurs, it might be false.
According to volume levels, during yesterday's decrease, the price came almost exactly to the level of $95,665. It then recovered above the levels of $97,553 and $97,944. As long as the price remains above the last two levels, it is an important argument for growth. However, the third volume level in this zone, $98,433, remains a resistance.
We maintain the opinion that the price is being pulled towards closing the gap on CME, while on higher time frames the asset is preparing for a correction or range in the coming weeks. Only a return to a stable uptrend on the two-hour timeframe could change this opinion. Ideally, it should be on the four-hour timeframe. Then there would be a chance of breaking potential highs on higher time frames.
It is definitely worth remembering that the BTC price volatility index is in a reversal zone. If there is no breakdown, volatility growth will start today or tomorrow. The question is which direction the price will take.
In Binance Square, there was a question about how a correction/range scenario could combine with a signal to start a bull run for #ETH and the upcoming alt season.
Firstly, a local pullback in the price of altcoins or the same range within this scenario is possible. The growth signal is on the weekly timeframe, local corrections and 'breathers' are quite permissible.
Secondly, the growth of altcoins during the BTC range is quite a realistic scenario during liquidity flow, characteristic of an alt season.