Trump's victory will have a huge impact on the crypto market:
If Trump wins the election, it will undoubtedly be a critical turning point for the current crypto market. Trump has repeatedly pointed out his optimism about the crypto market, and he may also introduce some crypto-friendly policies after taking office.
Among them, the policies of regulatory executives such as Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren will also be checked, so that the price of BTC will directly climb to a new peak.
There is also a large influx of funds from ETFs, which has driven BTC to rise again. Some bigwigs, PlanB, believe that Trump’s victory will clear the way for the approval of BTC ETFs
It will also drive a large amount of liquidity into the crypto market, and the inflow represents the acceptance and recognition of the mainstream financial market and the trust of investors.
In summary: With Trump and the government’s opening up of crypto market policies, a large number of crypto industry companies and investors will resume business and bring them back to the United States. PlanB predicts: This will have a significant market demand effect, thereby pushing up BTC prices again, with a chance to directly hit $100,000!
Harris wins:
If Harris wins the election, BTC will most likely fall, because the current expectations of the crypto market are almost one-sided. Once it exceeds market expectations, it will form a sharp contrast, which will be reflected in the crypto market and cause panic.
And Harris' victory means the continuation of existing policies. Although there is no clear negative news, there will be panic selling as the news comes out. Once the key support level falls below, there is a high probability that capital operations will be used for a big cleanup. The 6.5w position can serve as a strong support.
Summary: The driving force behind the rise of BTC this time is mostly short-term investors, not long-term holdings by large institutions like before. Whether it is Mentougou or Dezheng, plus Grayscale, which bought crazily in the last bull market, they are currently selling their previous profit chips in batches.
For short-term investors, they will definitely not hold BTC for a long time. Once the election enthusiasm subsides, there is a high probability that they will quickly exit the market. Once liquidity cannot keep up, BTC will also face new selling pressure.
The preliminary election results are expected to be finalized after 12:00 noon Beijing time on November 6.
Currently, Trump’s chances of winning are 50%-59% and Harris’ chances of winning are 40%-48% (not accurate data)
