The 60th U.S. presidential election has officially begun, with voting focused on seven swing states, whose election results will have a decisive impact on the final outcome of the election. Voting in New Hampshire began at midnight Eastern Time (1 PM Beijing Time), marking the start of the election finale. Although early voting results have already been mostly determined, the most noteworthy are still the following seven key states: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. Based on the closing times of polls in these states, it is expected that as long as the ballots are not particularly close, the final results can be basically determined around noon tomorrow.
Current polls show that Vice President Harris has a slight advantage. In several major polling sites like Forbes/HarrisX and NPR/PBS/Marist, Harris generally leads Trump. However, in the Atlas Intel poll, Trump has overtaken Harris, while TIPP's polling results show a tie between the two. It is worth mentioning that the trends in prediction markets give a different signal; currently, on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, Trump's winning odds lead over Harris's. Especially on Polymarket, Trump's probability of winning reaches 61.1%, while Harris's is only 39%, almost reflecting a 64:36 scenario. This indicates that in prediction markets, large capital betting determines market direction, suggesting that Trump's supporters are more steadfast. In contrast, the credibility of polls can sometimes be affected by various factors, so I personally believe that Trump holds a certain advantage in the current situation.
The potential impact of Trump's victory on the market
If Trump wins, the crypto market is expected to experience a strong surge. First, Bitcoin may break through the $80,000 mark in the short term, further attracting a large influx of capital into the crypto market. During Trump's tenure, he has repeatedly expressed support for cryptocurrencies and promised to include Bitcoin in the national strategic reserve, even planning to fire the current SEC chairman to increase support for the crypto market. If these policies are implemented, Bitcoin's price is expected to experience a new explosion by 2025, with the end-of-year price potentially breaking $200,000.
In terms of altcoins, especially $DOGE, $SOL, and $XRP, these three cryptocurrencies will become the biggest beneficiaries if Trump is elected. The biggest driving force behind $DOGE comes from Musk, and as Musk's 'private cryptocurrency', $DOGE is expected to become the world's largest political meme, integrating with Musk's 'streamlined government' plan and becoming a cultural phenomenon. $SOL and $XRP may benefit from changes in SEC policy, as Trump may loosen crypto regulations after taking office, particularly with the replacement of the SEC chairman potentially leading to more approvals for crypto ETFs, further boosting the prices of these two assets.
In addition to these well-known cryptocurrencies, the entire crypto market may also see a large-scale increase, especially the market capitalization of leading coins in various sectors is expected to rise more than tenfold. It can be said that as long as Trump takes office, the crypto market will usher in a wave of prosperity.
The potential impact of Trump's defeat on the market
If Harris wins, the market may face some correction in the short term. After all, the current coin price already includes a part of the premium from Trump's potential victory, and this capital may withdraw from the market. However, I expect this correction will not be too severe, as there is still support around $50,000. Although Harris's attitude towards the crypto market is not as aggressive as Trump's, she will not excessively suppress the crypto industry. There were rumors that Harris would consider replacing the current SEC chairman; although she did not pay special attention to crypto votes during the election, she may adopt some more moderate policies to win the support of this growing community.
It is worth noting that under Harris's leadership, the Democratic government has shown relative tolerance in promoting crypto-related policies. Bitcoin futures ETFs and spot ETFs were approved during the Democratic administration, which also indicates that Harris is not completely opposed to the innovation and development of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, although Trump's policies may be more favorable to the crypto market, the crypto industry is still expected to maintain a long-term growth trend after Harris takes office.
Moreover, Harris's victory may mean that the U.S. and the global economy will continue to expand, accelerating the process of globalization and ongoing monetary issuance. Under this policy backdrop, the crypto market will benefit from more liquidity and capital inflow. Therefore, whether it is Harris or Trump taking office, the long-term strengthening trend of the crypto market will not change.
Conclusion
Regardless of the election outcome, the long-term growth trend of the crypto market cannot be changed. If Trump wins, it will further promote the popularity of cryptocurrencies, leading the market into a new wave of explosion; while if Harris takes office, although policies may be relatively mild, the crypto market can still benefit under the backdrop of global monetary expansion. Therefore, whether in terms of short-term market fluctuations or long-term policy direction, the crypto market will be in a relatively favorable growth phase.
