October 5, 2024

The US non-farm payrolls data for September showed an unusually strong performance, with an increase of 254,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and also the highest level since March. Since the interest rate cut cycle has already begun, the non-farm payrolls data has little impact, but this time the data exceeded expectations by a lot, which reduced the probability of a 50bp rate cut in September and increased the probability of a 25bp rate cut. The decline in the unemployment rate will give the Federal Reserve more confidence to maintain high interest rates, which is the logic, but the current probability of a 25bp cut in September is 89.4%, which can only be said that the non-farm payrolls may slow down the pace of rate cuts this time.

Yesterday, someone asked me about the possible impact of non-agricultural data on the market. I just said that the reference is not very meaningful at present. The slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts is bad news, but yesterday's market rebounded slightly. If you ambush this news in advance, you may have made the wrong move. I also said yesterday that although the support of 60,000 points is not strong, it is a large integer point after all. You can consider a small position to do a short-term, but I didn't do it myself because I think the cost-effectiveness is not high.

I don’t know if you have noticed another piece of news. BN said that some areas in China have lifted restrictions on access to the official website, and that registration for +86 mobile phone numbers has been reopened. I don’t know if this is a unilateral action by BN or some kind of negotiation has been reached. In short, this is good news, which will prepare for the bull market next year and provide convenience for more new users and funds to enter the market. The recent surge in the A-share market is the best example. Domestic investment and speculation sentiment is still very strong. This news is not big, but the impact may be very large. Let’s wait and see.

In terms of market conditions, there has been a small rebound in the short term, but the strength is still a volatile trend. This position is undergoing a large-scale rebound. I think it is still difficult to go up in the short term, after all, it has just come down from the pressure of 65,000 points. Next is the US election, and there may be some unexpected situations. Overall, because it is at a low level now, you need to hold more positions on hand, but considering the small probability of black swan events, keep some funds and operate some positions according to the points.

Thank you for your attention and likes.