October 2, 2024
Have a happy holiday, everyone. However, the market is not reassuring at all. It started to plummet at 9 o'clock last night. At 4 o'clock in the morning, it had fallen from above 64,000 to around 60,000, and the market fell in tandem. As for the reason, I believe everyone knows that Iran once again launched missiles at Israel, exacerbating the tension in the Middle East. In theory, Bitcoin is known as digital gold and is a safe-haven asset. Why did it fall when the turmoil intensified?
First of all, the safe-haven property of Bitcoin was indeed more obvious in the early years, but it may also be a coincidence, because when the turmoil intensified, the black market demand for Bitcoin increased, which led to the price of Bitcoin rising every time there was turmoil. In fact, the large-scale safe-haven property has not been verified. Especially after the approval of the Grayscale Fund and ETF, the entry of Wall Street funds has made Bitcoin a risky asset, which is also an important reason for its close linkage with the US stock market in the past year. In fact, the US stock market also fell last night, verifying that this wave was affected by the tense situation in the Middle East.
As for the tense situation in the Middle East, which led to the decline of US stocks, in addition to the market's concerns about the escalation of conflicts, the biggest reason is the fear that rising oil prices will lead to repeated inflation, which will inevitably affect the pace of interest rate cuts in US stocks. In fact, the Fed's direct interest rate cut of 50 basis points has made the market a little worried, because a direct large interest rate cut means that there may be hidden worries in the fundamentals. However, the good news is that the missiles launched by Iran were intercepted by Israel's "Iron Dome" system and will not trigger a war for the time being. This attack is more like a warning. After all, Israel has indeed gone too far recently. However, the Middle East has always been chaotic. I happened to be listening to a history book on this subject recently. I have the opportunity to talk about it in detail.
As for the market, the pressure of 65,000 has been verified. Looking at the shock trend in the past few days, I thought it would break through, and most of the market also made this judgment, because this wave of plunge brought more than 600 million US dollars of liquidation, and the general bull market is only 1 billion, which shows that the market is still very bullish. But I also said at the time that we should not do more if we are bullish. Although it did not break through according to the established route, we did not continue to reduce our positions, but we released all the 20% positions of the bottom-fishing before 65,000. The fall is a good time to increase positions. Because this wave of decline was caused by an unexpected event, we will observe whether to open a position directly. If it is supported, 55,000 is relatively strong, so we can wait and see if the market gives us a chance.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
