I withdrew the rebate early in the morning and helped this guy save 500USDT (almost an iPad). The bull market has come, and the transaction frequency has increased a lot without you noticing. The handling fee is a considerable expense. The key is that if you don’t use the rebate account, your superior will take it.
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November 20, 2024

Bitcoin is fluctuating in a high range, but it has not yet broken through a new high. It is conceivable that the next wave of new highs will aim for the $100,000 mark. This $100,000 figure will once again refresh everyone's worldview, especially those who have heard about it before and did not take it seriously: "What? This scam is already $100,000 each?" Bitcoin, with its tenacious vitality, continuously breaks its own limits, changing people's perceptions of it through price increases. The key point is that even now, no one knows where its upper limit is.

Looking at Bitcoin's market, it seems that the bulls have no intention of easing up. On the first day of BlackRock's IBIT options listing, 354,000 contracts were traded, with a nominal exposure close to $1.9 billion, of which 82% were call options. According to the data, the market has mostly turned bullish, and the players in BlackRock options are also represented by Wall Street funds, which almost predicts that Bitcoin will break $100,000.

However, even with such a strong market, I still feel that it is necessary for the market to continue consolidating or even pull back in the short term. For some cryptocurrencies, the scale of the pullback may not be small. After the DEXX incident, the activity of the 'dog coin' seems to have been little affected, but the number of coins that can lead to sudden wealth has begun to decrease, concentrating more in the tens of millions market cap, and the pace of listings has also started to slow down, signaling that a hot sector is entering its later stage.

Of course, the overall trend is still upward, which does not prevent a short-term view of a pullback. After all, a healthy bull market also experiences many sharp declines; only in this way can the bulls continuously receive fuel supplies. If you are worried about missing out, you might choose not to participate in this wave or wait another couple of days to see if the market continues to consolidate. If Bitcoin remains high and altcoins do not decline, this indicates that the market remains strong, and you can enter in time. Conversely, any decline increases the probability of a market pullback.

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November 19

Today I added a V to account X, so I can post long articles, making it easier for everyone to read. I also hope that those playing X can give a follow over there, @bilaoye2077. Let's have a quick chat about the current market situation. I was going to post a promotional article today, but it seems like everyone feels uneasy if they don't check the daily updates.

The overall market is sideways, which is actually similar to yesterday's judgment, as Bitcoin's rise has encountered resistance. This resistance should be enough for the market to take a breather, meaning a significant pullback would be reasonable, including the fear and greed index telling us that the short-term pullback risk is high. However, the bulls seem to be undeterred, with companies like MicroStrategy continuing to buy and ignoring prices, only buying and not selling, which gives the market a strong boost.

The good news on the charts is that some sectors have begun to attract capital attention, including DeFi, which I have always mentioned, with leading projects like UNI, AAVE, and MKR showing signs of a potential rally based on the candlestick charts. Therefore, if the market pulls back, I will focus on adding a position, and if Bitcoin continues to break through, it's highly likely these sectors will follow suit.

In summary, at this stage, the probability of a bull market starting has exceeded 90%, and we are soon entering the last month of 2024. It’s a good time to make some plans for a pullback, but make sure not to be out of the market entirely.

November 18, 2024

Compared to the craze of the previous few days, the past two days are slightly better, mainly because Bitcoin did not continue to reach new highs, but instead made a small range consolidation at a high level. In this case, we generally treat it as a relay rise in the process of rising. If it continues like this, it is likely to complete the adjustment by "falling sideways". In any case, even if Bitcoin breaks 90,000, it is still the early stage of the entire bull market. In this way, my bull market high of 100,000 for Bitcoin will become very easy.

Seeing that Bitcoin's 100,000 goal is about to be achieved, the second-largest Ethereum's goal of 10,000 US dollars is out of reach. This round of market did not start from the Ethereum ecosystem, which is the main reason. Another direct reason is that Ethereum's car is too heavy. In the absence of an ecological project explosion, it is not feasible to attract users and funds by pure pull. In terms of chip structure, it is obvious that SOL and DOGE are more concentrated, including BTC's chips are more concentrated than Ethereum, because retail investors may configure Ethereum, but they are unlikely to buy Bitcoin.

It is said that the cryptocurrency industry is still in its early stages. In addition to the low overall market value (of course, it is okay to only look at the market value of Bitcoin), the main reason is that there is no large-scale commercial application, and it is just a small fight among people in the circle. From the perspective of configuring Ethereum, it is not only to bet on the main force to pull the market, but also to bet on an ecosystem that is out of the circle and the birth of a supercomputer system. To put it in a bigger way, this is faith. Therefore, when the price of Ethereum rises less than expected, it may need a little more idealism, and isn’t this the purest thing in the Bitcoin community?

Combined with the market conditions, there is a high probability of adjustment at this position. If you don’t want to stop profit and exit U, I would suggest some high and low switching. Ethereum and its ecology, especially DeFi and LSD, are both offensive and defensive options. Of course, it is undeniable that the Solana ecology is still on the rise, but the market value of some new or sub-new coins is already a bit too high. Can the market really bear the market value of hundreds of millions of US dollars? The inscription cloud in March has not completely dissipated. This time, be cautious.

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November 15, 2024 "The market has retreated as expected"

The market has retreated. I will update the article earlier today. I made a relatively clear risk warning yesterday. I also restrained myself from chasing highs at high levels and reduced some of my positions. I hope this wave will be helpful to everyone. Looking back, when the market was frenzy, everyone felt that their positions were not enough and wanted to make more money. In fact, yesterday, I saw obvious risk signals and prompted the risk of a pullback. The biggest risk point is the crazy posting of Memes. I saw some groups frantically posting new MeMe passwords. In addition, Musk's random tweets can create a market value of tens of millions. The hype is indeed too outrageous.

The market plummeted in perception. In fact, the maximum decline of Bitcoin is only 10 points. Every time it rises, it will be accompanied by a decline. Therefore, 10 points is actually a medium-level adjustment. The key to the problem is that Ethereum and a group of copycats are not strong enough to follow the rise, and the fall is not ambiguous at all. However, at this point, there is no need to worry about these. The next key is to see whether the big cake will break 75,000. It is still safe at present.

There was a small retracement the day before yesterday. I thought it was also a small level yesterday. However, judging from today's situation, the small level is not enough to digest this wave of bullish sentiment, so the probability of further retracement in the short term is increased. Of course, the current decline is still reasonable, and it is also necessary for the long-term operation of the bull market. Remember what I have said many times in the past few days: the bull market has more crashes!

In fact, the price of big cake is still in the bull market range, and the strong support below is still the pressure zone of about 75,000. However, I think that in this slow decline, it is difficult for big cake to break 8, so don't be pessimistic because of the decline. This is just a normal retracement in the bull market. However, even so, everyone should manage their positions well. When the retracement occurs, you can intervene in the spot, but don't touch the contract.

Why do I say this? I will show you a current loss order. Due to the rush to buy the bottom (I also said before that I thought it was just a small adjustment), 2 cakes were trapped for nearly 5,000U, and the profit has been spit out. So, there is no invincible general, don't be deceived by high-yield screenshots.

If it really falls, it will feel a bit too hot, but a fall is healthier!

November 14, 2024

The frenzy of the bull market continues, and Bitcoin directly stands at 90,000, leaving no opportunity for the market to take over. This rhythm is unique to the big bull market. Another feature of the bull market is that there is a continuous sector hotspot, and the myth of wealth creation continues to appear, attracting new users and funds to continue to pour in. Obviously, this time it is the MeMe sector, and to be more precise, it is the Meme of the Sonala ecosystem. In addition, the madness of Meme this time, including the strong rise of Doge, is also inseparable from Musk's blessing. He has made an indelible contribution to this bull market.

However, as everyone joked, the worst of this wave are the old DeFi players and Bitcoin ecosystem players, especially those who rushed in at the late stage of DeFi and the high point of the inscription, and are still struggling below the poverty line. In fact, this rule will repeat in every round of bull market. Newcomers and new money are likely to play new projects. There is no problem rushing in during the upward momentum, but if they are successfully brainwashed and converted to long-term beliefs in the process, they are likely to be trapped at the top of the historical mountain.

Of course, it is not wrong to say that some projects will still be in the next bull market, such as the largest MeMe Bitcoin, but they are few after all. This time, the most classic one is the dog that Musk shouted, which is entirely because the abbreviation of the government efficiency department created by Trump for him is also D.O.G.E. This should be called the greatest marketing and edge case in history, which is almost equivalent to using the US government to endorse Dogecoin, which is a super high-level gameplay.

What stage is it now? Various smart contracts have begun to fly around in the group, and then a lot of unknown meme prices will rise and fall, accompanied by a large number of runaway plates. At present, I think this wave is still too enthusiastic, and the market should have a bigger retracement to be reasonable, which should be in the next few days, so I don’t recommend chasing the rise again. On the contrary, those who succeeded in yesterday’s wave can continue to reduce their positions.

Thank you for your attention and support. I want to open a Binance chat room recently, that is, to chat in Binance. If the demand is large, I can open one here, but if the demand is not large, forget it.

November 12, 2024

Brothers, the price has risen too much. I have to keep an eye on this market. I will update today. In short, I want to pour cold water and remind you of the risks. The main logic is as follows.
1. Many coins have risen too fast. Dogs doubled in one day. It is not good to rise too fast. They often have to step back to consolidate the price.
2. The funding rate has skyrocketed. It has reached 100% in the past year. This is a risk signal. I am arbitrage madly. If you are interested, please read my pinned article.
3. The bull market has plummeted. The risk of short-term retracement is high, but the bull market has been formed. Reducing positions is to avoid short-term risks. Of course, don't be anxious if you want to buy the bottom. Wait for a wave of retracement. This is more reasonable.

November 11, 2024, "Bitcoin Stabilizes at 80,000, the Bull Market Horn Officially Blows"

The market is still rising, Bitcoin has broken through and stabilized at 80,000 USD. I didn't expect the 80,000 level to come so quickly, which also means the bull market has officially started. Bitcoin has surpassed the small bull market peak from March, and once it breaks through this pressure and stabilizes, it basically signifies that the rhythm of a major bull market has begun. Moreover, this time, it is not just Bitcoin's independent market; although Ethereum hasn't continued to push forward today, I believe a slower bull market is healthier and more reasonable.

Every round of bull markets needs hotspots to continuously attract external funds into the market. This round of capital basically comes from the Solana ecosystem's memes and various new projects, and the price of SOL directly confirms this point. Additionally, a bull market requires a wealth effect; today Binance announced the launch of two tokens from the Solana ecosystem, one of which, ACT, surged 10 times right after its launch. Some people became wealthy thanks to ACT, and the stories of getting rich are starting to spread, attracting new funds to rush in.

In terms of market rhythm, there is no doubt that we are in the early stages of a bull market, or that the overall trend is starting to rise, which is quite suitable for right-side trading. The primary goal is still to hold onto coins. For those with insufficient positions, I still believe ETH can continue to be held, as there is still space if we reach the target price of the bull market. Although the hot money in this wave of the market is playing in the Solana ecosystem, Ethereum belongs to the old money ecosystem and will eventually explode, including the DeFi ecosystem.

However, bull markets often retrace. It has risen quite a bit over the past two days, and I predict there might be a wave of retracement soon. Therefore, for those wanting to chase positions, it might be better to place a buy order at a lower price. Bull market retracements usually occur in the form of spikes, generally within the 10-20% range below the current price. Regardless, the bull market is a good time to make money; after waiting so long, we shouldn't easily exit. The overall trend has emerged, so let's adopt a bull market mindset to deal with it.

Thank you for your attention and likes.

November 10, 2024

Bitcoin has refreshed its historical high of 79,000 USD, just a step away from the 80,000 mark. It is currently consolidating and building momentum, and there is no doubt that we are experiencing a bull market rally. Markets always rise amidst skepticism, and after Bitcoin broke through the pressure of 75,000 points, it has slowly begun to climb. From the current extent of the rise, it has fully broken through. The reason why an effective breakthrough of this resistance level is important is that 75,000 is not only the peak of this year's minor bull market but also a level that has seen multiple failed breakthroughs. Crossing this point indicates that Bitcoin is about to enter a market above 75,000.

Another corroborative signal for this judgment is the overall rise of the market, especially Ethereum, which has been heavily criticized in the early stages. Today, it has successfully reclaimed an exchange rate of 0.04 and even touched 3,200 USD. In recent days, it has almost risen by 100 USD daily. As you would say, this is a bulldozer-like market, not giving opportunities for low-level pullbacks to get in. Additionally, there is a wild surge in altcoins, including the SUI token, which, despite high market cap and a massive unlocking, has risen from 2.2 to 3 USD. Although the main forces are heavily controlling the market, during a bull market, they dare to pull it up casually.

There will definitely be altcoins that do not rise, as this is a common issue in every bull market, because there are simply too many altcoins and the main forces have limited funds. After the bull market rises and completes the distribution of chips, once retail investors stubbornly hold onto their chips, the main forces lose the desire to push up. Therefore, we can see that those altcoins with a strong rise are often new coins with high control. As for the established altcoins, they will generally lag behind when funds rotate, but in a big bull market, there will still be some distribution.

The current market is viewed as a bull market. Shifting thinking from the previous bear market is a test, but it is generally advised to hold your positions well, as the market has not completely entered a FOMO stage. Of course, a healthy bull market will also experience pullbacks. If you want to increase your position, you might as well wait for a pullback. Additionally, bull markets will always have FOMO; investment is inherently like this. You should buy in a bear market and sell in a bull market, keeping an eye on your cost price, taking profits in batches. When the market shows signs of madness, I will prompt you to bravely sell some off, and having your own profit-taking plan is even better.

Thank you for your attention and likes; let’s wait together for the madness of the bull market.

November 8, 2024

In the past two days, everyone has noticed something: CCTV has reported on Bitcoin again. Unlike previous criticisms, attacks, and warnings about risks, this report is relatively objective, mentioning that Bitcoin has broken its historical high of $75,000, with wording that even shows a hint of envy. As a financial asset, it is not an exaggeration to say that Bitcoin is the greatest creation of the 21st century, after all, its returns have outperformed any single asset, and early steadfast holders have also achieved a leap in social class as Bitcoin's price has risen.

The emergence of new things generally follows this pattern: any innovation will affect the cake of vested interests, and naturally, it will face various suppressions and killings. If it cannot survive, it will be eliminated by competitors. Various suppressions are both a kind of honing and a manifestation of capability; only after this can one know whether they truly possess strength. Over the years, Bitcoin has followed this path; whether it is the approval of ETFs or the change in CCTV's attitude, these are direct manifestations.

In terms of market trends, after significant positive news for Bitcoin, there has not been a major pullback, indicating that funds are choosing to continue betting on the implementation of Trump's policies. He has stated that he wants to fire the SEC chairman, and if he really fulfills some of his promises, Bitcoin will rise further. Additionally, a new interest rate decision will be announced tonight; if interest rates continue to be lowered, it will undoubtedly be another good thing for the capital market. The market expectation is a moderate 25 basis points, which can still be accepted even if so.

However, in the short term, if Bitcoin does not continue to reach new highs, I believe it is still necessary to pull back a bit, but even so, it won't be too deep, possibly testing around $72,000 to $73,000, so there is no need to swing trade. The current market is very good, ETH has also reached $2,900, and SOL has even broken $200. When Bitcoin shows strong performance, the overall market has also seen a rebound. If you don't have many positions, just hold onto your coins without moving, and wait for the market to show some FOMO signals before continuing to reduce your positions.

Thank you for your attention and likes.

November 7, 2024

After Trump was elected, Bitcoin hit 75,000, then fell back below 73,000 and came back above 75,000, and continued to refresh the historical high. There is no doubt that Bitcoin's short-term trend is invincible, but the bears did not surrender directly. This pressure zone does not seem to be so easy to break through. In this case, it may need to consolidate at a high level to see whether it is direct.

It is worth noting that Ethereum has risen above 2,800 US dollars today, and the exchange rate has also reached above 0.037. Perhaps for most people, if Ethereum is taken at a high of more than 3,000, the current price is just a return or a small profit, and the current price is not very attractive. But don't forget that this is not actually the market of Ethereum. The real main rising wave is accompanied by the rise of the entire Ethereum ecosystem such as DeFi, L2, and pledge.

In the past two days, the market has risen. In addition to Bitcoin, the hot spots have quickly switched to DeFi blue chips. On the one hand, it may be affected by Binance's launch of CETUS and COW. Both of them belong to DeFi, especially COW is a very early project. On the other hand, it is Ethereum and its ecological projects. DeFi blue chips have already killed more valuations, and these are projects supported by business models. It is only a matter of time to canvass votes.

Back to the specific operation, someone asked about DeFi yesterday. My suggestion is not to rush to sell, but looking at this market, Bitcoin may consolidate at a high level. After all, it is under pressure from historical highs, and the rise of DeFi projects is expected to be adjusted. The bottom-fishing a few days ago can also be used for the band, and appropriate defense. However, in the general direction, this pressure level of Bitcoin is still quite critical. A breakthrough is likely to directly start a big bull market, otherwise it will start the last big retracement before the big bull market.

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