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1. The Black Swan has officially landed! My mood has fallen to the bottom, and the market has fallen below 2,800 points. There are reasons behind this.
The external market has plummeted, Japan has plummeted by 4%, and this has just begun. South Korea is also following suit. The US economy is showing signs of recession. The market has also plummeted, Buffett has reduced his holdings, Musk has shorted US bonds, and the US technology stock bubble is not big at present. However, after the interest rate cut, whether inflation can be controlled is a huge unknown. Japan's inflation is close to 3%, and their original intention is 2%. In order to reduce inflation, there is no better way than to raise interest rates. Black swans continue to appear, and there is not much drama in the Japanese economy. Japan has a lifetime employment system. The population is aging, young people have low desires, do not have children, and have no innovation. Relying solely on economic policies to stimulate the economy without solving the fundamental problems, China is better than Japan in terms of innovation capabilities. At present, China is the closest to the United States in terms of technology.
Domestic confidence is still insufficient, people's consumption is reduced, investment is reduced, and enterprises are laying off employees to increase efficiency. Important industries such as automobiles, photovoltaics, and wind energy are all engaged in price wars, and in essence, there is still insufficient effective demand. The real estate policy of affordable housing is a bottom line. Banks reduce existing mortgage loans, which is good for the restoration of confidence. From a policy perspective, these are long-term policies, but in the short term, it still requires the efforts of market protection funds.
2. Data show that the 72 listed companies in the traditional Chinese medicine industry achieved a total operating income of 189.434 billion yuan in the first half of the year; the net profit attributable to parent company shareholders was approximately 23.006 billion yuan.
Among them, the trend of "the strong will always be strong" in the traditional Chinese medicine industry is becoming increasingly obvious. According to data, among the A-share listed traditional Chinese medicine companies, Yunnan Baiyao, Baiyunshan, China Resources Sanjiu, Pien Tze Huang, Jichuan Pharmaceutical, and Tong Ren Tang have achieved a total net profit attributable to parent company shareholders of about 12.22 billion yuan, accounting for about 53% of the total net profit attributable to parent companies of all listed companies in the A-share traditional Chinese medicine sector.
3. Why have high-dividend stocks fallen during this period, while small-growth stocks have risen?
Some netizens have analyzed that this is a rule or phenomenon of A-shares, that is, the mid-year report market ends in September every year, which is often a time window for market switching. During this period, stocks with poor performance in the year will perform well, while stocks with good performance in the previous period will also adjust. The logic behind this is that the main funds lock in the annual returns in the fourth quarter and plan the market for the new year in advance. This process generally takes several months to complete the switching layout. If this logic is correct, then the small and medium-cap stock market next year is indeed worth looking forward to.
4. The bond market stopped falling in the short term and entered a sideways consolidation phase. After nearly a month of decline and adjustment, the bond market showed signs of stopping falling and stabilizing in September.
At present, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds is 2.152%. It is difficult to fall below 2.10%. If it reaches 2.25%, there will be buying orders. Small and medium-sized banks, bank financial management, and insurance funds need to allocate bonds. In the short term, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds will be sideways between 2.1% and 2.25%. There is no income if stocks go sideways, but bonds have coupon interest after all. As long as they go sideways, investors will have coupon interest income on bond funds and bank financial products. Therefore, investors who hold bond funds and bank financial products in the short term can continue to hold them.
Let's see how the bond market chooses its direction after the platform is sorted out. The central bank enters the market to sell long-term government bonds and buy short-term government bonds. The purpose is to regulate the yield of long-term government bonds and prevent the yield of long-term government bonds from falling rapidly. This is more beneficial for holding short-term bond funds.
A-shares continued to decline on Wednesday under the influence of foreign markets, Hong Kong stocks were weak at the same time, Asian stock markets fell sharply, and the main force outflowed 18 billion. The market fell more than it rose, and it felt that the decline was smaller than that of foreign markets, because A-shares are in a downward trend. After holding on for a day, the sensitive time in the second half of the week is in place. The market will continue to be cautious, and speculation will be abandoned. Option shorts are still strong. Some counter-trend hot spots on the market are confusing, and the oversold rebound style is highly random and difficult to operate. It is necessary to wait for the worst time point to pass. The judgment that the risk level in September is relatively high is maintained. The bottom arguments without basis are all tools to lure more people. Hold your hands and wait for opportunities. #加密市场急跌