Crypto币卡丘

This week, the focus of the economic field is undoubtedly on a series of key data and financial reports of technology giants. According to news on October 28, this will be a busy week for economic data, and the concentrated appearance of many important information will inevitably have a profound impact on the market trend.

First, the PCE data, the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, and the October non-farm payrolls report have attracted much attention. The PCE data is key to measuring the level of inflation, which directly affects the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. The non-farm payrolls report is an important indicator of the state of the US job market, and the quality of the job market is closely related to the overall health of the economy. If the PCE data shows that inflation is higher than expected, it may trigger market concerns about the Federal Reserve's further tightening of monetary policy, leading to a decline in risky assets such as stocks and an increase in bond yields. On the contrary, if the inflation data is milder, it may bring certain easing expectations to the market and support asset prices. If the non-farm payrolls data is strong, it may enhance market confidence in the US economy, but it may also prompt the Federal Reserve to consider adjusting monetary policy earlier; if the data is weak, it may trigger concerns about a recession.

On the current American political stage, the campaign between Trump and the Democratic Party is fierce and attracting much attention.
As the campaign progresses, many factors gradually emerge.

Trump has a considerable support base among voters, and if he can run a fair campaign, his chances of being elected should not be underestimated.
The Democratic Party will never give up the presidency easily and will certainly go all out and fight to the death.

This not only involves the political interests of the two parties, but is also closely related to the domestic political landscape of the United States and the direction of international affairs.

The Ukraine issue is a key focus in international affairs.

The eye of the Fed’s storm: Powell’s tough choices and ripples in global finance
In the vast ocean of the financial world, Fed Chairman Powell is standing at the center of a storm, surrounded by turbulent public opinion and conflicts of interest. Wall Street bosses are like strong winds and huge waves, constantly putting pressure on him to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy; on the other side, there are conservative forces worried about economic overheating and potential risks. As the September interest rate meeting approaches, this financial drama is gradually reaching its climax, and the world's attention is focused on Powell's every move.

Banning Apple phones? Cook didn't expect the situation to reverse so quickly
No iPhone? Cook didn't expect things to change so quickly.
As we all know, since the beginning of the smartphone era, Apple has completely overturned Nokia's dominance in the smartphone field with the iPhone. At its peak, it pushed Samsung to the top of the world more than once, and maintained an absolute dominant position in China's high-end mobile phone market, and made a lot of money by relying on high prices. Especially in China, 20% of China's annual revenue comes from Apple, which means huge benefits.

With Trump and Harris becoming the presidential candidates of the two parties in the United States, the US election has entered the final stage. But from the current situation, it is still impossible to judge who will win the final election. On the Democratic side, after "replacing" Biden, Harris has shown a continuous upward trend in fundraising and public opinion, suppressing Trump, and even getting the support of many Republicans, which is unexpected by the outside world. But on the Republican side, Trump has successively received strong support from Musk, Zuckerberg, Kennedy Jr. and others. These situations make the televised debate held on September 10th crucial and may change the current stalemate in the US election.

News

1. The Black Swan has officially landed! My mood has fallen to the bottom, and the market has fallen below 2,800 points. There are reasons behind this.

The external market has plummeted, Japan has plummeted by 4%, and this has just begun. South Korea is also following suit. The US economy is showing signs of recession. The market has also plummeted, Buffett has reduced his holdings, Musk has shorted US bonds, and the US technology stock bubble is not big at present. However, after the interest rate cut, whether inflation can be controlled is a huge unknown. Japan's inflation is close to 3%, and their original intention is 2%. In order to reduce inflation, there is no better way than to raise interest rates. Black swans continue to appear, and there is not much drama in the Japanese economy. Japan has a lifetime employment system. The population is aging, young people have low desires, do not have children, and have no innovation. Relying solely on economic policies to stimulate the economy without solving the fundamental problems, China is better than Japan in terms of innovation capabilities. At present, China is the closest to the United States in terms of technology.

As competition between China and the United States in the semiconductor field becomes increasingly fierce, the stock price of Nvidia, a giant in the US chip industry, has plummeted. What are the main reasons for this? One factor is that Chinese capital is withdrawing from the US market at an accelerated pace, and the policy orientation of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, has also changed.

The semiconductor industry has become a key area of ​​competition between China and the United States, and both sides have invested a lot of resources. However, the US chip industry has recently suffered a major blow. On September 3, the US stock market ushered in the first trading day of September after the long weekend, but investors encountered a "black start" and US stocks generally fell sharply. Among them, technology stocks led the decline, with the Nasdaq index falling 3.26%. The situation in the chip industry is particularly severe. The stock price of US chip giant Nvidia fell by nearly 10%, and the entire chip stock index fell by more than 7.7%. This level of plunge has been very rare in the past two years. So, what caused the decline in US stocks and the collapse of the stock prices of US chip giants?

Powell said that the US interest rate cut in September was just a delaying tactic. What is the Fed's plan?
Powell says September rate cut is a relief for the US? No way, the Federal Reserve doesn't lie
In Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made it clear that he was going to cut interest rates! Are he and the Federal Reserve deceiving the world? Many people in our country think so. To understand this issue, we must first understand the policy-making body of the Federal Reserve and its internal structure.
In order to understand the Fed's policy-making process, we have to mention the Fed's core institution, the FOMC.

Will China cut interest rates before the US? The financial war is "determined"
Will China lower interest rates before the United States? This means that the financial battle for the U.S. interest rate cut in September "has been decided."
We all know that the financial market is a huge stage that never stops, and its every move will have a huge impact on the world economy. China's unexpected early interest rate cut has caused a stir around the world. Why did China decide to lower interest rates at this time? Does it feel that its economic growth has been "tightened"? The United States, the weathervane of the world economy, is also discussing the possibility of a rate cut in September. What kind of economic game is behind this?

The United States is pulling out all the stops to deal with the global economy. From raising interest rates to Bitcoin to virtual currencies, the United States seems to be constantly looking for new ways to maintain its economic hegemony. At the same time, China is also responding in its own way, fighting back through its strong manufacturing industry and low-cost advantages.
【Events】
The United States has been busy in recent years, trying to maintain its economic hegemony. First, it raised interest rates crazily, then it introduced Bitcoin, and now it has set its sights on virtual currencies. These moves may seem unrelated, but they are all for one purpose: to attract money from all over the world to the United States.

When it comes to Elon Musk, many people will think of Teslas running on the streets and Starlink satellites flying in space.
As his "work" quickly changed the world, people could not help but regard him as the Edison of the 21st century. However, he was not satisfied with the praise of the physics community, and then published aphorisms about capital.
Unfortunately, his ethereal feeling did not last long. A sudden disaster shattered his fantasy in an instant, making him truly experience the bitterness of losing everything with just one mistake.

Musk's ambitions
There was once such a joke: when you ask on the street who is the president of the United States, some people may shrug helplessly. But if you ask Musk, I believe most people will enthusiastically tell you about his brilliant achievements.

Recently, a strange phenomenon has appeared in China. On the one hand, the domestic money supply is huge. In December 2023, the balance of broad money (M2) was as high as 292.27 trillion, close to the 300 trillion mark. This growth rate is very alarming. Looking back at December 2021, the balance of broad money (M2) was only 238.29 trillion, which means that in just two years, the M2 balance has surged by more than 50 trillion. However, on the other hand, whether it is the government, enterprises or ordinary people, they all seem to feel the tightness of funds. Many people are asking, where did all this large amount of money go?

Recently, a revised news about the US employment data caused an uproar in the global financial market. The latest data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that between April 2023 and March 2024, the number of new jobs in the United States was 818,000 less than previously estimated. This revision caused the total employment growth for the year to drop sharply from the original 2.9 million to 2.1 million, a shrinkage of nearly 50%. This astonishing data revision can't help but make people question: Is there a serious "water injection" phenomenon in the US employment data? What kind of economic game is hidden behind this? What role does China play in this complex international economic competition?

"We will not train a Chinese employee!"
There is a company that eats the food given by the Chinese, but wants to smash the pot that the Chinese cooked.
It has monopolized the Chinese market for 30 years and made a fortune, but it regards China as its biggest rival and charges huge service fees to Chinese companies.
This company is from the United States and its position in the database field is second only to Bill Gates' company. It is Oracle led by Larry Ellison!
It was precisely because of Larry Ellison’s “brainless operation” that Oracle finally left the Chinese market in disgrace.

Recently, a piece of news about the US economy went viral on the Internet. Stephen Zhan, chief monetary economist at Morgan Stanley, warned that the Fed's interest rate cuts could lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, and more than $1 trillion of capital would flow into the Eastern superpower, while the United States would be unable to intervene. In this way, what impact will the depreciation of the US dollar and the influx of capital into the Eastern superpower have on the global economy? Why is the United States unable to intervene in this phenomenon? Today, let's explore this topic in depth.

1. The dollar depreciates, and one trillion yuan of capital flows into the Eastern giant

The current situation is very unfavorable to the United States. On the one hand, the US government debt is high, and on the other hand, the dollar hegemony will continue to face challenges. So why doesn't the United States start a war? I find that many people make war sound so easy.
War is a money-burning machine. No matter whether it is a big country or a small country, if they are not sure of winning, they will not take the initiative to start a war because they simply cannot afford to lose.
Weren't Spain and Britain powerful in Europe back then? Spain was the world hegemon before Britain, but because it lost several wars, Spain became a small country in Europe. Of course, Spain's economy is still very strong today.

He Youjun's Star Jing Weiwu Group went public on the US stock market, and his net worth skyrocketed overnight, bringing about changes in family and personal wealth
On July 26, 2024, when the world's attention was focused on the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, another piece of news caused a sensation in the financial world and wealthy families: He Youjun, the fourth son of gambling king Stanley Ho, announced that his Star Win Group was successfully listed on the Nasdaq. This move not only marked a new height for He Youjun in the business field, but also brought unprecedented wealth growth to the He family.

The grand occasion on the listing day
At the listing ceremony, He Youjun's wife Xi Mengyao stood behind him and became the focus of the whole audience. At the climax of the ceremony, He Youjun turned around and kissed his wife Xi Mengyao affectionately. The scene was warm and high-profile. He Youjun also shared several photos through social platforms, showing a group photo of him and his family in front of the advertising screen at the Nasdaq headquarters, including family members such as Stanley Ho and Angela Leong. The happy picture of the whole family became the focus of media attention for a while.

The first point to be made clear is that we have not yet officially entered the deflationary phase where prices are generally falling. It just looks a bit like deflation, but it is not real.
The second point is that banks may adjust interest rates in September, but this is not certain because unexpected events may happen at any time, just like the "black swan" events we often talk about.
The third point is that China's economic performance should improve as expected. If you understand these three points, any smart person will have a general idea.

Many people believe that we are in a state of deflation, but this is not the case. How can we be in deflation when the world is dealing with inflation?

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on the 24th that US President's National Security Advisor Sullivan will visit China from August 27 to 29 at the invitation of Wang Yi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, and conduct a new round of China-US strategic communication.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on the 24th that US President's National Security Advisor Sullivan will visit China from August 27 to 29 at the invitation of Wang Yi, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, and conduct a new round of China-US strategic communication.
Many people may not be familiar with Sullivan, the US President’s National Security Advisor, and may even underestimate the importance of the position of “Assistant”.