(2//2) The turning year is turbulent, and a technical rebound is about to begin!
4. Tonight (Friday), at 20:30 Beijing time, the United States will release July non-farm employment data. Whether it will trigger the perfect signal "Sam Rule" to warn of economic recession will be revealed soon!
The market expects that the number of non-farm employment in the United States will increase by 175,000 in July, lower than the previous value of 206,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain the same as last month at 4.1%.
If the number of non-farm employment increases:
* Greater than 250,000: S&P rises by 1%;
* Between 200,000 and 250,000: S&P rises by 0.5%-1%;
* Between 150,000 and 200,000: S&P rises by 0-0.5%;
* Between 100,000 and 150,000: S&P falls by 0.5%-1%;
* Less than 100,000: S&P falls by at least 1%.
5. "Sam's Rule": refers to the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate. If it exceeds the lowest three-month moving average in the past 12 months by 0.5 percentage points or more, it will indicate that the US economy may begin to shuai recession.
According to official statistics from the Federal Reserve, the current gap is 0.43%. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.2% tonight, it will just trigger the Sam's Rule. If it is in line with expectations and remains at 4.1%, it will be able to escape.
2. BTC Setting and Suggestions
1. The short-term industry fundamentals are flat, and are greatly affected by macro fundamentals. The technical 30-day moving average is upward, and the callback of this round of rise has been touched for the first time. It has not yet broken, and there is a need for a technical rebound. The 30-day, 60-day, and 120-day moving averages are about to entangle. In the short term, it may maintain consolidation in the 63,000-66,000 range for 1-2 weeks. The 63,000 area below this range can be intervened on dips.
2. The cost of short-term participants is about 65,500, which is the current key pressure and support position. It is usually also the position to distinguish whether the market has ended the correction or not. Breaking through this position will be a signal that the correction has ended. In the short term, the 65,500~66,000 range can be shorted at highs for hedging.
