Intraday Analysis November 12, 2024, Tuesday

1、BTC
Upper Pressure: 89600~90500
Lower Support: 86900~86300

Yesterday (Monday), the US Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of over 1.1 billion dollars again, and 90,000 is not the end of this round of gains. Currently, Bitcoin has risen to the technical pressure level at 1.618, and the integer level of 90,000 will undergo a brief technical consolidation, with a low probability of a significant pullback and a greater probability of further increases.
【Suggestion】Intraday operation, mainly going long at lower levels; be cautious about going short, as short positions are against the trend, and be sure to take profits in time and strictly set stop losses.

2、ETH
Upper Pressure: 3345~3390
Lower Support: 3265~3220

Yesterday (Monday), the US Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of nearly 200 million dollars, showing a trend of continuous net inflow. The exchange rate shows that Ethereum has been significantly weaker than Bitcoin for two consecutive days, and a hanging man pattern appeared in one hour, but with strong support from Bitcoin, the possibility of a significant pullback in the short term is relatively low, and the probability of a weak consolidation with downward pin action is relatively high.
【Suggestion】Ethereum is weaker than Bitcoin; intraday operations can be high short and low long.

#BTC连续破新高，你看到多少？ #BTC何时破9万？ #牛回速归，晒晒你的持仓？ #DOGE看涨情绪飙升 #ETH大涨

The most difficult night to predict is the non-farm night, will it be a V-shaped rise or a fall?

BTC analysis:
Upper pressure: 70800 ~ 71400
Lower support: First support 69100 ~ 68800,
Second support 68000 ~ 67600

【Fundamentals】
1. Four days later on November 5th, the US election will be held, six days later on November 7th, the Federal Reserve’s November resolution will be held, and tonight on November 1st, the US Department of Labor will release the US October non-farm employment data.

Tonight’s non-farm report may be the most unpredictable this year. On the one hand, the two hurricanes since late September may cause serious interference to economic indicators. On the other hand, at the last moment of the presidential campaign, the report may easily be suspected by the outside world of being used for political manipulation.

Different investment banks have made very different forecasts for tonight's non-agricultural data. The median estimate is about 113,000 people, the highest forecast is 180,000 people, and the lowest is a shocking -10,000 people.

2. Yesterday (October 31), the US Pie ETF had a net inflow for the seventh consecutive day, but the amount dropped sharply to 31.3 million US dollars, and the aunt had a net inflow for the third consecutive day, with the amount increasing to 13 million US dollars. Under the situation of continued net inflow of ETFs, $BTC broke down, mainly due to the influence of macro uncertainty and unfavorable economic data. The disk has not changed fundamentally, waiting for the election results.

Tonight's non-agricultural data is on Friday again, and there may be large fluctuations. 🈴 Forex players need to guard against the risk of up and down pins.

[Technical side] BTC daily level moving average still maintains a long arrangement, MACD column line top divergence, and may form a dead cross, which requires a certain amount of time to repair. Currently supported by the rising trend line and the last round of bull top 69000 area. There is a high probability that the market will maintain a wide range of consolidation before the election.

[Suggestion] Wait patiently for non-agricultural data, focus on short-term operations, stop profits in time, and strictly stop losses.

#非农就业数据 #加密货币急跌 #BTC走势预测 #美国大选后行情预测 #ETH投资

Trump's probability of winning skyrockets, BTC intraday analysis 20141029 Tuesday

Upper resistance: 70900 ~ 71300
Lower support: 69400 ~ 69000

Trump held a high-profile campaign event at Madison Square Garden in New York, reigniting market confidence in his victory, causing his winning probability to soar, which boosted related stocks and Bitcoin significantly.

$BTC surged to 70,000, currently closing above the downward trend line, with the weekly chart forming a golden cross above the near-zero axis, and the daily moving averages in a bullish alignment. The 200-day moving average is starting to turn upwards, maintaining a bullish trend at a larger scale.

On Monday, the ETF continued to see strong net inflows, with current data showing a net inflow of $473 million, and the upward trend is expected to continue.

【Suggestion】Focus on going long near the technical support level during pullbacks, and move the stop-loss for held long positions to secure profits.

#BTC可以站稳7W吗 #phantom钱包宕机 #BTC走势预测 #非农数据 #GDP

BTC Analysis Monday, October 28, 2024

Upper pressure: 68300 ~ 68850
Lower support: 67400 ~ 67000

1 hour strong upward breakthrough of Vegas channel, short-term rebound trend. MACD 30 minutes form a top divergence of the column line, 15 minutes form a top divergence, the intraday white plate will pull back for technical repair, the pullback can be shorted, but the stop loss must be strictly set or the business must be stopped in time. After the opening of the US stock market in the evening, the net inflow of ETFs last week may bring a wave of upward rush.

Suggestion: The white plate can be shorted near the pressure technical level, and the callback can be long near the technical support level. It is recommended to trade in the white plate for short orders, strictly stop the bamboo shoots, and stop the business in time. The callback support is long to welcome the upward rush brought by the ETF buying volume after the opening of the US stock market.

#年底牛还熊？ #PCE、非农数据来袭 #BinanceBlockchainWeek #BTC走势预测

BTC Technical Analysis 20241026 Saturday

Upper Resistance: 67200-67500
Lower Support: 65800-65500

The 1-hour level has completed a five-wave rebound from the previous low of 65260, and after the rebound, it has entered a three-wave adjustment, currently positioned in wave C. Wave C has completed a minimum adjustment drop of 1600 points, which may end at any time. A Pinbar pattern has formed on the 1-hour chart, and a bullish engulfing has formed on the 30-minute chart, indicating a short-term bottoming signal.

It is the weekend now, with smaller fluctuations, and there is a higher probability of weak consolidation within the support and resistance range.

【Suggestion】 Day trading can be conducted, shorting at the resistance area during a rebound, and going long at the support area during a pullback.

#年底牛还熊？ #加密货币市场持续震荡 #美国大选前行情观察 #Tether否认调查和制裁 #BTC突破7万大关

Player's friend asks: Is it appropriate to exchange ETH for BTC now?

$ETH The performance of this bull market is indeed relatively weak, mainly due to:
(1) Lack of new narratives to speculate on;
(2) The development of its L2 ecological projects has siphoned off Ethereum's popularity and funding;
(3) Technology inherently has a latecomer advantage; the later a technology emerges, the more advanced it will be, while Ethereum is an early public chain and is now facing challenges from newer public chains like Solana.
(4) The Ethereum Foundation often sells at high positions, leading to dissatisfaction among investors, loss of faith in Ethereum, and questioning whether the Ethereum team only knows how to sell coins and does nothing.

Can ETH be exchanged for BTC now? Yes, it can be exchanged.

How to exchange? Currently, it is a consolidating and fluctuating market; one can sell Ethereum at high prices and buy Bitcoin at low prices to gradually achieve the exchange operation.

Personal opinion, for reference only!

#BTC回升至6W7 #Btcoin #ETH投资 #美国大选前行情观察 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

BTC Technical Analysis 20241023:

1. Weekly: MACD forms a golden cross above the near zero axis; this week saw a pullback, but the histogram remains above the zero axis and continues to expand. Volume maintains a head-and-shoulders bottom formation, making the probability of a sharp short-term decline low, while the probability of a new round of medium-to-long-term rise is very high.

2. Daily: The 200-day moving average is flattening, while the 120-day and below moving averages form a bullish arrangement, maintaining a bullish outlook in the medium to long term. However, it faces resistance from the descending trend line since the historical high of 73777. The candlestick forms a bearish engulfing pattern and breaks below the 7-day moving average. MACD converges above the zero axis for five consecutive days and may form a dead cross, while the volume does not show a significant downward trend; a technical pullback is expected in the short term.

3. 4-hour: The moving averages form the first dead cross, currently supported by MA60. MACD shows a second top divergence, with the histogram converging below the zero axis; however, the volume shows a notable decline, indicating a potential downward trend, and the pullback is not yet over.

[Attention] Tesla will announce its Q3 earnings report tonight (Wednesday) after the U.S. stock market closes, with the earnings reports of the seven giants following suit. As the earnings reports of the seven giants account for nearly half the weight, particularly the AI performance of NVIDIA, which is the engine of this round of bullish momentum, will directly affect the U.S. stock market's trend and indirectly determine the short-term trend of the crypto market. Currently, the probability of Bitcoin pulling back to a new low is increasing.

[Prediction] Short-term: Continued pullback. Support: 66500~66000

Feel free to leave a message for discussion 🌹🌹

#YGG、ADA、ENA解锁 #币安上线SCR现货 #牛市赛道是那条？ #SEC批准多支比特币ETF期权 #BTC突破7万大关

This week, for four consecutive trading days, US spot ETFs have received large net inflows, fully supporting the rise of sugar oranges, and the "Trump deal" has reappeared. Volatility has not risen synchronously, and the larger market is still not mature, and it will take some time.

1-hour MACD top divergence, 4-hour may form a dead cross, short-term technical correction, the correction range is limited.

1. Weekly: MACD has converged below the zero axis for six consecutive weeks, and may form a golden cross above the zero axis; the volume forms a head and shoulders bottom, and the probability of forming an upward trend is very high, and the probability of forming the next round of upward trend in the medium and long term is very high.

2. Daily: Breaking through all moving averages of 200 days and below, the long arrangement is in the process of formation. After MACD forms a golden cross above the zero axis, the column line continues to diverge, and there is no sign of weakening bullish momentum; the 30-day volume average continues to rise, and the probability of further rise and challenging the upper pressure is high.

3.4 hours: The moving average forms a bullish arrangement; the MACD column line shows a top divergence, and the two lines may form a dead cross. The volume shows a significant decline, but it is still above the 30-period average. There will be a technical correction in the short term, and the correction range is limited.

[Prediction]

1. Short-term: technical correction. Support: 66500~66000.

2. Medium and long-term: bullish, pressure: 70000~71000.

#BNB涨至600 #特斯拉转移比特币 #特朗普家族加密项目 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #BTC突破7万大关

BTC: Volatility has not rebounded significantly, news stimulates the rise, and the medium- and long-term bullish pattern is gradually formed, but there will be twists and turns in the short term.

1. Daily line: Breaking through all moving averages of 200 days and below, the moving averages tend to be entangled, and the moving averages within 200 days are all located in the upper 200-day moving average (63342) and the lower 60-day moving average (60912) interval. The 60-day and below moving averages remain upward, and the 120-day and 200-day moving averages slow down; MACD forms a golden cross near the zero axis, and the volume has a trend of breaking through the decline. The 30-day volume average has slowed down, but it still remains upward. The probability of continued rise in the medium and long term is relatively high.

2. 4 hours: The moving average forms a mild bullish arrangement, MA30 (62963) and MA60 (62626) are close; MACD bar line completes aerial refueling above the zero axis, and after reaching a new high of 66500, it forms a real bearish engulfing, and the MACD bar line begins to converge. The possibility of a short-term correction is large, but the volume can maintain an obvious upward trend, and the correction range is limited.

[Prediction]

1. Short-term: technical correction. Support: 64300~63800.

2. Medium and long-term: bullish, pressure: 70000

PS: Trump's poll recovery, Mentougou's delayed repayment and other factors have boosted the rise of the big cake. Recent polls and the winning rate of the Bo Cai website show that Harris's advantage over Trump has disappeared, and to some extent has turned to a direction that is favorable to Trump. Trump Media Technology Group's stock price rose 20% on Monday.

#美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #特朗普概念币 #Btcoin #Meme浪潮持续，你看好哪一个？ #灰度考虑新增35种加密资产

Brief analysis of copycat LPT.

The cost of building a position in LPT is 13.5u, and the current price is about 11.5u, with a drop of about 15%. Q: What should I do?

From the daily K-line chart:

1. It is in a convergent triangle operation, the 60-day moving average is flat, and multiple moving averages tend to be entangled.

2. MACD bottom divergence, light trading, 10-9u is likely to be the bottom.

[Suggestions]

1. It is not suitable for short-term trading. Medium and long-term trading can be entered in batches below 11u.

2. LPT belongs to the AI ​​sector. Nvidia will release its financial report from October 21 to 25. If the performance is good, the AI ​​sector will have a wave of market.

3. For those who are trapped, it is not suitable to cut losses at the moment. Wait until the market stabilizes before operating.

#LPT.24小时交易策略 #6万保卫战 #山寨币热点 #Btcoin #EthereumEFT

Market Analysis Thursday, October 10, 2024

BTC
Coin stocks are separated, there is no narrative in the coin market, and the news dominates the trend. It is necessary to prepare for a three-wave decline to 58,000.

1. Daily line: It fell below the 7-day moving average (61840) and the 30-day moving average (62000), and formed a dead cross, and fell to the 60-day moving average (60498) to temporarily gain support. The MACD bar line diverged again below the zero axis, and the volume showed a downward trend. It is necessary to prepare for a three-wave decline to 58,000.

2. 4 hours: It fell below the rising trend line, the MACD double line broke the zero axis, the bar line continued to diverge below the zero axis, and fell below the Bollinger middle track (62416). MA60 remained downward and formed a death triangle. MA120 began to turn downward, and the decline has not yet ended.

[Prediction] Consolidation, which may form a downward relay. Consolidation range: 62000~60000

Negative factors led to the decline:
Negative factors 1: On Wednesday (October 9), the FBI created a token "fishing enforcement" to detect misconduct, and the U.S. federal prosecutor in Boston sued four crypto companies and 14 people for suspected crypto market manipulation and false transactions. This is the "first criminal prosecution" related to market manipulation and false transactions of crypto financial services companies. The case will hit the confidence of over-the-counter investors to enter the market.

Negative factors 2: The concubine seized in the multi-billion dollar PlusToken scam has awakened on the chain for the first time since 2021, and in the past 24 hours, about 7,000 of the remaining 542,000 were sent to exchanges, and may continue to sell.

#6万保卫战 #特朗普当选概率上升 #CPI&PPI来袭，美国通胀升还降？ #Btcoin #ETH收益

Intraday Analysis Tuesday, October 8, 2024

[BTC]
Big A continues to attract money from the global screen, and cryptocurrencies are also attracted. The big market may delay the pleasure.

1. Daily line: Rebound as expected and consolidate in the consolidation range. The 7-day moving average (61894) is upward for the first day, and the 30-day moving average (61789) remains upward, close to MA7, and the position will be an important support. From the current macro environment, the probability of breaking is high, and the 60-day moving average (60473) may be tested again. The MACD bar line continues to converge below the zero axis, and a golden cross may be formed. The volume has not seen an obvious downward trend, and the possibility of a short-term sharp drop is small.

2. 4 hours: Bearish engulfing is formed, breaking the upward trend line, and the MACD bar line converges above the zero axis, which may form a dead cross. It is currently supported by the Bollinger middle track (62552). MA60 is still downward, and the probability of breaking the middle track is high.

[Prediction] Bearish, support range: 61600~60800.

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Market Analysis Monday, October 7, 2024

BTC:
Daily moving average is close to entanglement, and a multi-period moving average bullish arrangement is about to form. A new round of rising market is getting closer and closer, with a target of 70,000.

1. Daily line: The 200-day moving average is between the 60-day moving average (60471) and the 200-day moving average (63557), close to entanglement. Currently, it is trying to break through the 200-day moving average above the interval. The probability of multi-period moving average bullish resonance is very high. The MACD bar line has maintained a convergence pattern below the zero axis for three consecutive days, and a golden cross may be formed; RSI and KDJ have formed a golden cross, and the current round of callback volume has formed a rejection of the dead cross pattern, and the probability of multiple indicators forming a multi-fork resonance is very high. This round of callback is over, and a new round of rising market will start at any time.

2. 4 hours: Return to the upper 62350~64600 dense chip range, MACD, RSI enter the strong zone, MACD column line diverges above the zero axis, the double line breaks through the zero axis and the probability of idling is high, the Bollinger middle track is stable and there are signs of opening, the moving average forms the first golden cross, but MA60 is still downward, and the long arrangement needs some time to repair.

[Prediction] Consolidation (upward relay), consolidation range: 62300~64600. Possible black swan: escalation of Middle East conflict, Israel attacks Iranian oil fields, oil prices soar, and inflation returns.

#非农人数大幅升温 #Bitwise申请XRPETF #HBO纪录片或揭示中本聪身份 #加密市场反弹 #BTC☀

Market Analysis Friday, October 4, 2024

BTC
The 60-day moving average is upward for the second day, breaking through the upper track of the falling wedge. The probability of good non-agricultural data in the evening is high, and a small rebound may be ushered in.

1. Daily line: The 30-day moving average (60737) remains upward, and the 60-day moving average (60190) is upward for the second day. This round of upward trend has not been broken. The MACD bar line still maintains a divergent shape below the zero axis, and there is no end signal for the callback; RSI remains upward below 50, and the volume has also recovered. There are signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing in the 60,000 area for the time being.

2. 1 hour: MACD, RSI and other indicators have a secondary bottom divergence, breaking through the upper track of the falling wedge. The moving average has not yet formed a long arrangement, but it may form the first golden cross, and the probability of a rebound is high.

[Prediction] Rebound. US stock index futures opened low and moved high in the morning. The probability of good non-agricultural data in the evening is high, and the big cake may usher in a small rebound. Rebound target: 62000~62500.

#加密市场急跌 #美SEC对Ripple案裁决提出上诉 #Bitwise申请XRPETF #伊朗导弹袭击以色列 #BTC走势预测

Market Analysis Thursday, October 3, 2024

Reduce operations, whether to stop the decline and stabilize or to continue the decline, wait for the non-agricultural data on Friday.

【BTC】
1. Daily line: The cumulative decline in this round is 9.77%, which is still within the normal fluctuation range. The 30-day moving average remains upward, and it is supported at the 60-day moving average (60081), and the 60-day moving average is flat, and it has not fallen below the 60-day moving average. The rising structure has not been destroyed, and there is still a possibility of setting a new high. MACD forms a dead cross above the zero axis, and the bar line remains divergent, which requires a certain amount of time to repair. RSI began to turn upward below 50. After three consecutive days of continuous large-scale declines, the trading volume shrank yesterday and formed a near cross with a slightly longer upper shadow line, showing signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing.

2. 1 hour: MACD, RSI and other indicators have bottom divergence, but are still running below the downward trend line. The moving average has not yet formed a long arrangement, and it needs to consolidate for a certain period of time. Is it a staged bottom consolidation or a downward relay? In the short term, we need to wait for the next guidance given by the non-agricultural data.

[Prediction] Continue weak consolidation, waiting for the big fluctuations that may be brought about by the non-agricultural data on Friday. Consolidation range: 62000~60000

#加密市场急跌 #大A香还是大饼香 #Bitwise申请XRPETF #美SEC对Ripple案裁决提出上诉 #Btcoin

Technical Analysis Wednesday, October 2, 2024

BTC
The 9.53% drop from the high point is a normal fluctuation, and it is supported by the 30-day moving average, and the trend has not changed.

1. Daily line: It fell below the average cost of short-term holders of about 62,800 and the Bollinger middle track (62,562), and fell to the 30-day moving average (60,396) for support. MACD formed a dead cross above the zero axis, and RSI continued to fall below 50. The trading volume continued to fall for three consecutive days, and the correction has not ended.

2. The S&P and Nasdaq of the US stock market fell out of the bald big negative line, while the Dow consolidated, which is usually a manifestation of market risk aversion. On the one hand, the non-agricultural data on Friday will be released soon, and on the other hand, the sudden escalation of the US port strike and the Middle East war may increase the uncertainty of the US election, thereby bringing risks to the risk market. The trend of rock sugar orange has not changed. The industry currently has no narrative. In the short term, it will be affected by the macro environment and US economic data, and follow the US stock market into a correction.

[Prediction] Weak consolidation, waiting for the big fluctuations that may be brought about by Friday's non-agricultural data. Consolidation range: 62800~60000

#币安上线EIGEN #非农就业数据即将公布 #加密市场急跌 #大A香还是大饼香 #Btcoin

Technical Analysis Saturday, September 28

BTC

The weekend market was quiet. If it breaks through 66500, it will reach 69000. Whether it can break through or not will have to wait until Monday.

1. Daily: A new high of 66498, breaking through 66500 will reach 69000. The moving average is about to form a golden triangle, the 30-day moving average is upward, the 60-day moving average is flat, and the 120-day moving average is downward, while MACD remains above the zero axis. The bar lines are high and low, indicating that the bulls are slightly better and will repair the technical indicators in a slow-rise mode. After three days of ups and downs, the daily volume has resumed growth again, and the probability of a short-term sharp drop is small.

2. 4 hours: Running in the rising channel, MACD forms a golden cross near the zero axis, and the previous secondary top divergence has been repaired. The 4-hour volume has re-formed an upward trend. The previous callback did not break 62500, indicating that the main three waves of the rise have not yet ended.

[Prediction] Consolidation at a high level over the weekend. The US stock market opened high and closed low for three consecutive days. The short-term trend is facing choices. The correlation between the currency market and the US stock market is close to the historical record. We need to wait patiently for the opening of the US stock market on Monday. Be cautious🈳

#HMSTR开盘 #美国8月核心PCE创4月以来新高 #BTC走势预测 #ETH投资 #币安上线CATI

Options data analysis Friday, September 27

BTC and ETH third quarter delivery is about to expire, there is downward pressure, and it will be the last chance to enter the market.

1. On Friday (September 27), BTC and ETH third quarter options are about to expire.

BTC: The biggest pain point is $59,000, with a nominal value of $5.8 billion.

ETH: The biggest pain point is $2,500, with a nominal value of $1.9 billion.

2. Quarterly delivery will bring a large amount of position transfer and margin release. With the end of quarterly delivery, there may be downward pressure. This will be the last chance to layout the fourth quarter.

[Prediction] The callback may be accompanied by a rapid market with pins up and down.

[Suggestion] Buy in batches in the spot support range, 🈴 stop profit in time for long orders and set protection loss, control the position, and short with a light position.

#美联储11月降息预期升温 #美国二季度核心PCE符合预期 #币安上线CATI #比特币盈利供应能否推动价格上涨？ #BTC金LTC银

Technical Analysis Thursday, September 26

BTC:
If it does not break 62500, it will consolidate at a high level. You can go long or short in the consolidation range.

1. Daily: After setting a new high of 64817 yesterday, the real closing formed a bearish engulfing, and the decline stopped at the 1-hour Vegas channel. KDJ formed a dead cross, and MACD continued to converge above the zero axis, but the daily volume did not show a significant decline, and the consolidation continued.

2. 4 hours: Running in the rising channel, MACD pulled back to a new low of 62670 after the second top divergence. The 4-hour volume has a downward trend, and the three waves of the callback have not yet ended. The bottom divergence appeared in 30 minutes, and the A wave callback may end, and the B wave rebound will begin.

[Prediction] Rebound. The A wave callback ends, and the B wave rebound begins, with a target of 63900~64300.

#新币挖矿已上线HMSTR #比特币盈利供应能否推动价格上涨？ #币安上线CATI #Btcoin #EthereumEFT

Technical Analysis Wednesday, September 25

BTC

The macro impact is large, wait patiently for the callback signal to appear, and don't chase the rise.

1. Daily line: Yesterday, it hit a new high of 64817 and closed at 64262, closing above the 200-day moving average (63904). KDJ formed a rejection of the dead cross, but MACD remained convergent above the zero axis. The daily volume did not show a significant increase, and there is still a possibility of a callback. The pressure around 65000 is heavy.

2. 4 hours: Running in the rising channel, MACD has formed a golden cross after a top divergence, breaking through the previous low of 64133 and breaking the 2B rule. When will the five-wave rise end? We need to wait for the end signal again.

[Prediction] Consolidation. The correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks has reached 0.67, which is greatly affected by the macro environment. Yesterday, under the series of policies of the People's Bank of China and other departments to stabilize the stock market, the property market and growth, such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio, lowering interest rates, and lowering the interest rates of existing mortgage loans, global Chinese assets soared across the board, among which the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by more than 9%, leading the U.S. stock market to reverse during the intraday trading, and Bitcoin also continued to rise, but the probability of subsequent adjustments in the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin is still relatively high.

[Suggestion] Don't chase the rise. The spot position can be controlled at 30%~50%, long contracts should stop profit in time, and short orders should wait patiently for entry opportunities.

#币安上线CATI #本周美国将公布PCE、GDP数据 #BTC走势预测 #ETH大涨 #火星城