The Bank of Japan, which had been silent for a long time, suddenly made a big move today. At around 11:00 am, it unexpectedly raised interest rates by 15BP to 0.15%-0.25%, and at the same time reduced the scale of bond purchases, which had a short-term negative impact on the risk market. Fortunately, it was the yen that raised interest rates. If it was the dollar that raised interest rates after 2:00 tonight, it would be a nuclear bomb, and the Pound Sterling would not be able to hold the 58,000 points.
Of course, the US dollar interest rate hike has completely become a thing of the past in this cycle, and it has now entered a critical node in the interest rate cut cycle. The main reason why the yen can be raised is still due to the weak demand for the yen. Objectively, Sanshu believes that the expectation of a strong yen brought about by this basis point and the impact of the macro environment will not last long.
The Fed's interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. overnight is expected to have a great impact on the short-term market, especially Powell's monetary policy press conference after the decision. No matter what he says, it will bring huge fluctuations to the short-term market. Based on the data, Sanshu tends to keep the interest rate unchanged this time. It depends on whether Powell can clearly send a signal of a rate cut in September.
Immediately afterwards, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data for July at 8:30 p.m. tomorrow. These two data will directly affect the expectations and magnitude of the September rate cut. The non-farm data remains to be studied. After all, the data was revised in the next month after the previous releases, and policy considerations are relatively large. The unemployment rate, combined with previous data, is likely to meet or exceed expectations.
The impact of Mentougou has also visibly decreased recently. It has transferred 33,963.8 BTC today, and has transferred a total of 95,522.7 BTC since the 5th of this month, and has realized bond compensation of more than 60,000 BTC. The impact is basically consistent with Sanshu's previous judgment. The compensation of the number of tokens and the sufficient dispersion of the number of retail investors directly lead to a significant reduction in the possibility of concentrated selling. In the future, the negative impact of Mentougou will further decline.
Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 18.3 million USD yesterday. Among the nine institutions, only BlackRock had an inflow, while the others were in a state of outflow. Ethereum spot ETF achieved its first net inflow since its launch, with data of 33.7 million USD, of which Grayscale had an outflow of 120 million USD. Grayscale currently has 2.17 million Ethereum. Grayscale's outflow data has gradually eased, and the data is expected to reverse in the short term.
The amplitude of the evening market is expected to expand. Just continue to wait patiently for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting data and Powell's speech overnight. The market's first decline and then rise will inevitably lay the cyclical tone of this bull market after the Federal Reserve's monetary easing policy is implemented.
This is how it is during the day, with news coming one after another, it is simply too wild. The market will not be achieved overnight, it will show its original trend after stumbling, let it go, and it will eventually come to fruition.
BTC: If Bitcoin is pulled back in the evening due to news, those who have shipped at high levels before can gradually take it back. It is expected that the turning point of the small cycle of the market will gradually move out of the direction after Powell's speech. The most critical market signal in August is to completely lay the foundation for the next round of rebound lows at the previous 53,000 points. The signal laid is that this round of rebound breaks through the previous historical high. It is expected that this signal will be seen before the end of August. In the short-term market, the bottom strong support of Bitcoin remains unchanged at 63,000 points. I hope that there will be another downward attack before the good news lands to give me an opportunity to get on board. The small support is 65,000 points, and the upper pressure is 72,000 points. Hold the currency and wait. .
ETH: Ethereum is likely to choose to fluctuate upward. The gradual weakening of Grayscale data and the oversold buying of other institutions, as well as Bitcoin’s previous reference trend, show hope for the dawn.
Shanzhai: In the short term, Sol is expected to reach a new high after adjustment. Solana concept JTO is linked to strength, with pressure around 3.5 points, and positions are reduced on rebound. Bome without positions should continue to pay attention, and the rebound expectation has risen to 0.015 points, and it is expected that there is still about 50% space. Doge has broken through the daily pressure trend, and it is optimistic in the long term. Shanzhai season has not come yet, sats, ordi, ens and ssv are a bit lagging recently, and they are optimistic in the medium and long term. Shanzhai has not linked to callbacks during the day, and most Shanzhai are bottoming on the right side. The old Defi projects are currently showing signs of strength, which can be regarded as a signal before the next stage of the general rise in the market.
The Fear and Greed Index was 61 during the day.
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