xntm566
Recently, many friends have privately contacted me about the market. In fact, it has been said for more than a month. BTC is bullish in the medium and long term, with the goal of breaking 10w first and the end point To the moon, which is unpredictable; A-shares are also slightly bullish, but it will take longer.
Let’s talk about the big logic first:
1. The global monetary easing cycle is coming
No matter what asset, the core of the rise and fall is the capital side, not the technical side, not the fundamental side, not the policy side! There is enough money in the market, even if it is a black swan, it will quickly pull back to a new high, such as the US stock market and the cryptocurrency circle during the epidemic. So:
The two superpowers of China and the United States will continue to cut interest rates and reserve requirements in the next year, and the same is true for Europe, Australia, etc. (except Japan)
The global monetary tightening cycle has ended and ushered in a new round of easing cycle.
2. In the US election, Trump is likely to be elected, the cryptocurrency circle is good, and the A-share market is bad
Trump’s support for digital currency is self-evident. The phrase "Let the future of BTC happen in the United States" is passionate. It is very likely that the big cake will explode with the trend.
But on the contrary, Trump is very extreme in attacking China, even more than Biden. After being elected, he may issue a stricter policy to restrict China, which will be bearish for the A-share market in the short term.
3. The risk of war in the Middle East is lifted, and Russia and Ukraine may usher in a white swan
Israel and Iran in the Middle East can only fight a small fight, and neither side has the intention to go to war. All provocations are good opportunities to pick up low-level chips.
The Russian-Ukrainian war may gradually start peace talks after the US election, and may end next year, which will be a white swan for global assets.
4. BTC ushers in a four-year cycle
The last bull market of the big cake was 20 to 21 years. According to the four-year cycle of the big cake, this round will start in 24 years and will reach a climax in 25 years. The bull market generally starts a few months after the halving. Don't forget that the last halving was April 20, 2024, and it has been half a year since then!
The global easing cycle is superimposed on the four-year cycle of BTC, plus the Trump effect. If the white swan of the Russian-Ukrainian war talks breaks out again next year, then this will be another great opportunity for a leap in wealth in life!
Are you ready?
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