甜梦讲币

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Meme coins have entered the darkest moment of this cycle.

Data shows that, as of now, about 83.7% of altcoins on the Binance spot market have already fallen below the 200-day moving average. In other words, for every 10 altcoins in the market, nearly 8 are still in a long-term downtrend. This widespread doldrums has lasted for nearly eight months—making it the second-longest stretch since 2020, surpassed only by the previous bear market.

Many people see it as despair, but history tells us that every truly great opportunity often emerges in a stage when “no one believes.”

That’s because when the market undergoes a full liquidation, worthless projects get eliminated, the bubble gets squeezed out, and liquidity begins to concentrate in assets that genuinely hold value. The people who make money in the next cycle likely won’t do so because they bought more coins—but because they bought the right ones.

In the past, an altcoin season could lift almost every project at the same time. But in the future, it’s more likely that only a very small number of projects will be able to survive the cycle, leaving the other thousands far behind.

The real altcoin season may already be over; the real alpha era has just begun.

The most ruthless part of this bear market isn’t how deep prices are falling—it’s that it’s telling everyone: making big money in the future won’t rely on luck anymore, but on knowledge and understanding.

Core Gameplay of Strong-Whale Coins:
“‘Only trade spot, absolutely don’t touch futures!’”

After a long period of consolidation, strong-whale coins will basically deliver both a long and short knockout—double-kill!

The market maker controls the board: a quick lift here, a sharp dump there,
and they can wipe out leveraged longs, then sweep away the shorts.

Funding rates + price “needles,” a perfect harvest.

With spot, you can take the roller-coaster ride—yet the coin is still in your hands!
As for futures… it directly goes to zero！！！！！！！

To play strong-whale coins,
just laying low with a small-amount spot position is enough;
futures will very easily end up turning into money sent to the market maker.$NVDAB #AAVE涨13.16%至$94.32

In the short term, if the amplitude narrows, you need to be more cautious about going long or short. At this time, it’s not just pushing upward; it’s also likely to drift downward—both happen at once, which means the segment’s two ends are effectively extended. For example, within the past 24 hours, ETH’s highest point was 1610 and the lowest was 1561. The amplitude was compressed into a tight space of only 49 points. In that case, you shouldn’t open a position based on the Fibonacci retracement. Also, because the timing is around the end of the month and the beginning of the month, normal pullbacks are likely to be suppressed to some extent. In such conditions, the price is likely to first overflow above the resistance point at 1610 and also to drift below the support point at 1561. But you don’t know how far it will overflow or how far it will drift down. Therefore, for a low-entry long, take profit a bit earlier; for a short, try to enter a little higher (watch the entry closely and set take-profit/stop-loss while targeting a relatively low position).

In a bear market at level one, it’s still very hard to play—you must rely on KOL relay handoffs. The general process is as follows:
1. Scan for chain explorers: find good projects on the domestic market, and follow the trade.
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Send it out through a small group; once it opens on the overseas market, there are sniping specialists that specifically eat the liquidity during the migration window. When it opens on the overseas market, they push the price up instantly; the domestic market liquidity exits, and the sniper bot withdraws. Since they can snipe a few hundred to a few thousand markets in a day, it adds up over time.
2. After sending it to the overseas market, if the project’s narrative is solid (√), the official account’s BlueV is active (√), and the Dev keeps operating (√), then you find quality discovery KOLs (usually with fewer than 5,000 followers). Generally, four to five of them will coordinate to shill for a period; usually this results in a decent rise. The liquidity that buys at the open starts to exit.
3. Because liquidity is insufficient, the upside has already tightened, but some small “cluster” market-making bots have already entered. They’re waiting for big KOLs to buy in and follow, as well as for the call-out liquidity. Once they get it, they’ll buy alongside and push the price up within an hour—only that hour of liquidity exits.
4. If you want to break 10m in a bear market, you must absorb the float before the first two phases are over. KOLs from major domestic and international circles relay and coordinate the calls.
5. A conspiracy clique colludes.

If you’re not familiar with level-one, don’t jump into the trenches yet—but you can observe their candlesticks to build experience. Operate again next year when liquidity is better. Watch more, trade less.

The hidden upward momentum at the daily chart level is strengthening. This time, the breakout point is 64. Near-term resistance is 75–76.5; after a breakout, watch the 78–81 range. This pullback not only didn’t touch the early-June low of 60, it actually lifted it by 4 points. So if you’re trading spot, don’t try to be overly precise and catch the exact bottom—just get in when it’s roughly right. If you enter a few points higher, so what? To make money in a bull market, why worry about these temporary few points? Even if, in the short term, you enter a few points higher, it doesn’t really matter. If you insist on chasing the absolute lowest entry, there are basically only two outcomes: either you miss the move, or you end up only able to chase. That’s why you should buy in batches to bottom-pick. If you only want to buy at the very lowest point in one shot, then you might end up being able to trade only once a year. In that case, watching the chart every day would be meaningless.

The ETH price is moving within a triangle pattern, and it is gradually approaching the end of the pattern—meaning a breakout/turning point is imminent. At present, the probability of an upward move is higher. The price continues to rise, and it is in a low-level golden cross trend. Moreover, it has repeatedly tightened below, which is enough to show that the bulls are launching a counterattack. Once it breaks through the upper boundary line, the price may move into the 1680–1700 range. Just wait and see—hold your long positions!

Tell me about the knockoff coins you’re really optimistic about
Hope that in mid-July, $BTC hits a bottom. In past bear markets, by this time it was basically the mid-to-late stage. If it bottoms in July, then the sideways trend to September should slowly rebound. If it can’t bottom in July, then it might not be until the end of the year.
For this cycle, I’ll mainly go for two coins that I’m very optimistic about: one is $SOL, the other is $UNI.

The reasons—everyone can look them up and check the information for yourselves. I’ll start buying SOL at 60 and buy gradually down. I’ll start buying UNI at 2. If they don’t reach those levels, then I’ll chase on the right side.
For these two coins, in the next cycle, I won’t dare to say there will be 3x profits, and I can’t be certain about the timing. What I can be sure of is that they will definitely rise.
That’s under optimistic assumptions. If BTC really drops to 40k, then SOL would have to reach 40. And then UNI might also have to go to around 1+ U.

This guy buys in and then starts shouting buy signals—his methods are really shady!
$SYN, an old-timer from the previous era, directly binds Hypercall to SYN governance. In other words, he’s just trying to relaunch things by riding on a low-valuation old project plus a narrative for a new product.
I don’t recommend you follow this. It’s already surged a lot this month. This shady guy is really bad. And I just looked into it: compared to SYN’s former state, there hasn’t been much change. Right now, it’s mainly about the governance token, with no clear fee-splitting, buyback, or burn mechanism.
If it can’t go up, the downside is huge—so everyone be careful.

Crypto world: what hours/thoughts to watch:
1. This hardware rally has been going for 3 months. It may not be at the top yet, but spot trading is basically fine—it's all about cost. There are two kinds of costs: entry cost and time cost. If you don’t have an advantage on either side, then right now hardware must be played with a speculative mindset. For example, in the last version, true god-level Nvidia was popular—now it has become “dogs don’t eat it” (nobody’s interested).
2. Since this round of decline in the crypto market started, I’ve kept changing my trading habits: I don’t do short trades, and I don’t trade perpetuals/futures. I just hold. Historically, crypto cycles are bullish long and bearish short. This isn’t the time to waste the big bull after a big bear, just to chase contract profits worth a few cents.
3. If your capital is relatively small, or you’re aiming for ALPHA returns, opportunities are still in altcoins. Don’t just look at how much the U.S. stocks are rising. Compared with the small altcoin “mountain forts” in crypto, it’s really not that big a deal. It’s just that one is a bull market and one is a bear market—one is relatively easier to trade and the other is relatively harder. But now, the long bear market in crypto—after getting halved again and again—plus prices being cut down like that, is actually making the previously hard-to-trade crypto market easier to trade.
4. People who are chasing “the ultimate price” (not below 50,000 / 45,000 / 40,000) and refuse to buy the dip now share the same mindset as those back then who didn’t sell when BTC was under 130,000—135,000—140,000.

$ANSEM brought the whole $SOL market’s trading volume along with it, but I found that apart from a few friends around me, not many people made money in this round of market action—including some of the foreign friends I know. Friends who are doing daily chain scanning: most of them should have seen this coin pretty early on. During these days when this coin has been pumped, you could see what the broader market is like—no matter how bearish it looked. When BTC broke below 60k, I think it’s absolutely fine to be more cautious and just watch from the sidelines.
Not making money on the ride, I still think that’s a good thing—the wealth-creation effect on-chain is still there. The heat around $ANSEM has pulled the attention of the crypto community back to the chain. But I feel that the surrounding narrative of celebrity coins can’t carry everyone’s emotions; instead, you see more new coins getting rugged.
The on-chain emotional outlet—something that can let everyone make money—must be an innovative thing. $ANSEM may go even higher, but since I missed the entry, I’m not going to chase it. Instead, I think it’s more worth paying attention to BASE’s B20 right now—maybe some new opportunities are quietly brewing.

On the last day of the month, watch for the monthly line to close, through July 2. After the June non-farm payroll report is released, the big picture will become clear. In these two days, watch more and move less. The 6.25 reminder about “small-position” trading was based on the idea that the chop between the end of the month and the beginning of the next month isn’t very friendly for traders with small capital.

At this point, current BTC and ETH definitely shouldn’t be shorted. If you go long below 60k and get stuck, it would only be a shallow pullback-to-hold situation—there are plenty of chances to take profit. Shorting, however, is a bit awkward: if it suddenly spikes upward, you’ll panic. No matter where you short, you absolutely must defend 61,000.

SOL is holding up strongly. The “light” for an oversold weekly rebound is on again. It isn’t really running its own independent story—it’s just that SOL moves a step earlier than BTC. If SOL starts to strengthen, BTC usually follows up soon as well. So SOL’s price action is typically used as a barometer to predict BTC’s next move and direction.

There’s a clear change in the market lately:
Before, when everyone talked about
$BTC
, they discussed the halving, inscriptions, and the ecosystem.
Now people talk about BTC—how much ETF inflows there are, and whether institutions have bought.
Many people are still using the mindset from the previous bull market to look at the market, but in this cycle, what truly moves the price isn’t how good the story sounds anymore—it’s who is actually placing orders with real money.
So you’ll notice a phenomenon:
When BTC drops, the whole market loses spirit.
It’s not that the projects have gotten worse—it’s that the water level is too low.
In history, every major bottom has had a common trait:
It’s not because the decline was harsh enough.
It’s because the sellers can no longer sell, while the buyers start to increase.
What matters most now isn’t guessing where the bottom is.
It’s watching when the capital comes back, because prices can be misleading, but capital won’t.

The way Binances’ life chart moves is absolutely crazy!
In a short time it dumped by more than 30%, then after a brief sideways bottoming, it quickly reclaimed and even traded higher than before. Won’t the main force keep using short-selling profits to pump and continue to squeeze long positions? This is the classic “double squeeze” of both longs and shorts!
Core logic:
1. First, a drop from around 0.70 down to 0.455 smashes through highly leveraged long positions, follower orders, and stop-loss orders.
2. After that, it doesn’t continue bleeding lower with more downward drift. Instead, it quickly recovers 0.55, 0.60, and 0.70, showing there’s support underneath. The sell-off looks more like a washout plus liquidity-taking, not a full-on distribution.
3. During the rally, the majority of the time there’s active buying where “>1” (meaning >1). OI (coin-margined) is basically flat; while the dollar OI rises as price goes up. This suggests it’s not just retail FOMO chasing longs, and it’s not massive new long positions being hard-stacked. It’s more like the main force pushes price higher with only a small amount of chips, forcing shorts to cover.
There’s still a chance Binance’s “life” could surge again, but right now it’s a late-stage endgame, not an entry point for heavy positioning. This is just the dog cartel’s probing attempt—maybe the next drop will be the real one. After all, maintaining a high price level for a long time comes with a high cost!

1 hour
A very brutal reality
Both USDC+USDT are continuing to see large outflows from exchanges
The hardest part isn’t just for users—it’s for the exchanges themselves
This also suggests that the more U.S. stock assets on exchanges are actually having no effect
But removing trashy altcoins is a good thing ​​​

July 2nd: the big non-farm payrolls.
Release the June data, July 14th CPI data
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Wage hearings
July 20th: the World Cup ends, and funds return
July 30th: the Fed meeting—most likely the interest rate will be kept unchanged
What’s being sold off right now is all trading on expectations; it’s currently an interest-rate hike expectation
In the second half of the year, we’ll have to trade expectations for the election
October and November are Trump’s midterm elections
So it’s a matter of waiting for an opportunity to do DCA when a “golden dip” appears
At the moment, the main BTC whale order flow is placing 55,000-limit orders waiting
The market will most likely test that level

AAVE
Avalanche ecosystem: a 100x coin from the bull market of 2021. In the last bull market, there was still about 5–6x room to go. This time, prices have been falling all the way; the weekly chart is now roughly at its fourth bottom. The weekly and monthly charts are both starting to rise from the bottom. Personally, I think this coin’s correction is also about done. The weekly chart will most likely see a wave of upward rebound.