In 2021, Axie Infinity surpassed Honor of Kings in terms of revenue, setting off a GameFi craze In 2024, Black Myth Wukong was born, hoping to drive blockchain games back to their peak The cryptocurrency world is in great need of new narratives to attract new Web2 users and new funds to enter the market, ending the market adjustment and volatility
The market currently has too high expectations for rate cuts, and JPow's statement at Jason Hole will be crucial
1. My base case: It will be slightly more dovish than the July meeting:
There is greater confidence in inflation and a slight focus on growth. Pay attention to employment data and say that there are a lot of tools available at any time
This means that everyone's expectation of 50bps is gone, and there will be a maximum of 3 times this year if the data supports it
2. It may not be too soft or too hard, after all, there is still a month before the interest-bearing meeting. It is unwise to say that there is no room for maneuver
My judgment is still that inflation is controllable and the economy is soft. 2-3 times this year (depending on employment), 1% next year
Therefore, the market may be a little disappointed with Jason Hole, but the Fed's toolbox is still deterrent. There is no long-term bond issuance in August, and the 10-year bond has been bought at 3.8%. Therefore, even if there is an adjustment, it will not affect the general trend of stock market repair. After a rapid repair in 2 weeks, the stock market may fluctuate and then rise more slowly. It is still safe for the time being
If the market is weak and really wants to be disappointed with the Fed, it should be after the official rate cut in September. In addition, September is a big month for long-term bond issuance. Once disappointed, long-term interest rates will be more vulnerable. At that time, we need to pay more attention
Of course, if JPow's statement is very weak: seriously concerned about economic growth, or thinks that the current interest rate level is too high. Then it means that the market pricing is correct, and the rate will really be reduced by 50bps in September, and the rate will be reduced rapidly and continuously. Although I think it is a bit abstract, if it really happens, it means that the real bull market of liquid assets such as BTC is about to begin
In this range of fluctuations, the short volume is a little stronger than the long volume, but it is not very strong. In fact, both the long and short volumes are relatively weak.
I am not sure whether the bulls will pull up and break through at the end of the triangle. So, stay alert. If the bears exert their strength, the price will fall to 530-540.
Instead of betting on rising or falling, it is better to wait patiently for the direction of the short-term trend to become clear, and then we will follow the trend.
I found that many people are waiting for $BTC to hit 40,000 to buy the bottom, but will the market really give you 40,000?
I have always believed that no matter how to buy spot, as long as you buy $BTC $ETH $SOL in batches according to the proportion of your positions, no matter how the market fluctuates, the cost price you hold will be very low, and you will not miss every rising market
Even if you don’t look at the market so far, like the one on August 5th when it fell to 49,000 in one breath, many people are looking at the 42,000 position and telling everyone not to buy the bottom randomly, only I am calling for buying the bottom in batches , the result is that it rebounded from 49,000 to 63,000 in 4 days. The truth is always in the hands of a few people. There will be a rebound after each decline. At this time, it is OK to buy some relatively strong altcoins to eat the band.
I can't predict what the next market will be like. The interest rate hike data in September affects the entire financial system. What we have to do is to operate according to our own system.
The goal of trading is to catch a big extreme market, and the rest of the time is to test the market. When the big market does not come, just ensure that your funds do not lose too much. As for whether to make money or not, it doesn't matter at all. All short-term, all shocks, and all small trends should be abandoned at the original price. If you want to make money, make big money.
Tether minted 1 billion USDT on the Tron chain. With the inflow of new funds, Bitcoin has stabilized at 60,000 again. It is expected to hit 63,000-64,000 this week. If it can break through 64,000, the current round of market correction will end and a complete reversal will be ushered in.
8.20 Will it break through? 1. The trading volume in the morning began to increase, indicating that the main force has the desire to attack today. If the volume breaks through 62,000, it will usher in the main upward wave of the daily line 2. At present, the BTC funding rate is negative, and MACD is golden below the 0 axis, which are all conducive to an upward breakthrough
$PEPE teacher asked when we can "buy the bottom", probably starting with 5, there is a potential harmonic target here and there is a certain support in the previous consolidation range. At present, the big level is a trend of oscillating and falling.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are still fluctuating in the box, but the altcoins have started to pull up the market recently. Yesterday, the overall blockchain game sector and some NFT platforms rose, such as DAR TLM BURGER RARE, etc. Most of the market capitalizations are very small.
Most people have begun to get tired of the recent overall market. It has been rising for a few days and falling for a few days, and the price has not changed much. For example, sats ordi in the big cake ecosystem, and some meme coins bome people turbo (the dealer has also been trading with each other) have also led to missing many opportunities. For example, banana fell sharply on August 5 and the project party began to protect the market. It was very good on August 6, 7, and 8. It was sideways. I saw it at the time, but I didn’t push it or buy it. The first reason is that the recent market makes people tired. The second is that the market was still very bad at that time. The third is that the funds are all in other coins, and I am too lazy to change, etc., which leads to the missed opportunity to double. I also haven’t studied the recently popular TRON first-level dog. I should continue to catch up with these later and study more.
I haven't talked about ETH for a long time 1. The weekly line is closest to completing the decline, 2100 should be the bottom, even if it falls again later, it should be at 2000-2100 as the bottom.
2. The daily OBV prompts that although it has been maintained at around 2600 recently, someone is shipping on the pallet. The daily MACD golden cross looks healthy.
So there is a reluctant inference: ETH may lead and bring about the cottage season (25% probability); ETH needs to make up for the decline once to complete the weekly bottoming (75% probability)
I think blockchain is good, the cryptocurrency world is good, but they are all a bunch of gamblers, so don't pretend. You have to write a fresh and simple essay to quit the circle. It's 2024 and no one will buy this. Everyone is selling their houses and wives to gamble. If you think it will rise, go long, and if you think it will fall, go short. You are not allowed to quit the circle. Jumping off a building is the way to quit. Get up and have fun!!!
Also, VCs and exchanges should not pretend. People who have been in the circle for ten years know what they think. Just jump up and play. You hype your VC meme, and I play my dog meme. If we cooperate, we will make money together. If we don't cooperate, we will mess with each other to death. If you don't accept it, come and fight. In the cryptocurrency circle, you either obey public opinion or violence, and the law does not exist.
Are you all busy quitting the circle? Once you get off the train, the market will come. I don't feel anything, I'm just too busy every day. I went through all the memes on Coingecko last week, and I went through the memes on Bitget in the past few days. I found many excellent and low-quality memes. Bitget should have the best meme layout at present. Everyone should be able to find it when it explodes in the fourth quarter of this year.
It's the same old saying, you are greedy when others are panicking, and you panic when others are greedy.
I felt very panicked around January this year because Twitter was full of earnings, but now I feel very greedy. The bullets are slowly fired, waiting for the big harvest in the second half of the year.
Extreme speed + channel rebound test channel starting point 59820 Encountered resistance and turned down (Benbai filled 10 short orders at this time) CTMD Wall Street V V back and forth The price killed the key position of 563xx that we paid attention to yesterday Started to rebound strongly, this market is not a pattern at all Currently recovered the trading range, hunting the shorts chasing the shorts Expected to continue to fluctuate, high 6w short orders are still holding some while walking and watching
Looking closely at the reality, the Fed has not brought benefits to ordinary people, nor has it made the economy more stable.
The overall performance is currently acceptable, neither up nor down, neither high nor low. The Fed will never cut interest rates unless it is absolutely necessary.
Expectations have been overdrawn so much, is the September rate cut really a foregone conclusion?
$ETH fell along with the market, and stopped falling after reaching the support level of 2610. It is currently running at 2650. I just checked that the exchange rate of ethbtc is still strong. You can still open long eth this time.
Intraday short-term personal plan is to open long eth at 2530-2510, and stop loss at 2580. See 2690-2710 above