LIVE小辛不新苦
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At this stage, the basic cleaning of the copycat is very good. Many of the price peaks have returned to the prices in January. It is a very good choice to suppress the copycat and welcome the vitality cycle. I don’t know if you still remember that I wrote a post before. Although the content is relatively brief, it summarizes a lot. Whether it is betting on the copycat later or this wave of callback, it may be boring for a while, but it is better than not daring to increase the position and regret it when it rises later.
Then what are the opportunities in each track in the second half of the next half?
1: Top sports events such as the European Cup on June 15 and the Olympics in July usually start to hype about one or two months in advance. SANTOS is the son of a certain An, Por is endorsed by Ronaldo, and AGK is endorsed by Messi. Small market value can be several times.
2: Ethereum Prague upgrade is coming! Ambush in advance OP (2), IMX (1.8), ETHFI (3.5), SSV (35), PENDLE (5) should all be good choices
3: Sol's annual conference will be held in September this year, jup (0.85), pyth (0.55), jto (2.3), ray (1.2), and meme-based bome are all worth considering.
4: There will be news of GPT5 being released in the middle of the year. On May 2, ocen, fet, and agix will announce the details of the merger. RNDR (8), WLD (4.5), arkm (1.3) will follow the trend and narrative hotspots and start a new wave.
5: ETC will reduce production in June, and there is hype. In the past, ETC (24) can double its production every time it reduces production.
#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETHFI🔥🔥🔥 #ETH🔥🔥🔥
Then what are the opportunities in each track in the second half of the next half?
1: Top sports events such as the European Cup on June 15 and the Olympics in July usually start to hype about one or two months in advance. SANTOS is the son of a certain An, Por is endorsed by Ronaldo, and AGK is endorsed by Messi. Small market value can be several times.
2: Ethereum Prague upgrade is coming! Ambush in advance OP (2), IMX (1.8), ETHFI (3.5), SSV (35), PENDLE (5) should all be good choices
3: Sol's annual conference will be held in September this year, jup (0.85), pyth (0.55), jto (2.3), ray (1.2), and meme-based bome are all worth considering.
4: There will be news of GPT5 being released in the middle of the year. On May 2, ocen, fet, and agix will announce the details of the merger. RNDR (8), WLD (4.5), arkm (1.3) will follow the trend and narrative hotspots and start a new wave.
5: ETC will reduce production in June, and there is hype. In the past, ETC (24) can double its production every time it reduces production.
#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETHFI🔥🔥🔥 #ETH🔥🔥🔥
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I am a little uncomfortable with Ethereum's strength. The market was unanimously bearish two days ago, but today it is unanimously bullish. KOLs are fickle, only our city has always been consistent in sticking to Ethereum. #以太坊ETF批准预期 #机构积极投资比特币ETF #芝商所拟推出比特币现货交易 #BTC走势分析 #BTC走势分析
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The European Central Bank has predicted that interest rates will start to be cut in June. Powell's rhetoric may be deceptive, but the one who knows you best must be your opponent. In addition, the G side has also introduced unprecedented new policies for the property market.
The turning point of global liquidity is getting closer and closer.
When it falls, I don't want to sell my meat, and I live in fear of falling every day. When it rises, I sell it immediately after getting my money back, and I live in fear of rising every day. "The Voice of the Poor"
The world is a decryption game.
Everyone's mission is to face various puzzles and unlock their innate wisdom and enlightenment.
People who can see through the essence of things in one second and those who can't see the essence of things in half a lifetime are destined to have completely different destinies.
Don't wait until you are 40 to understand the truth that you can understand at 20, and don't wait until you can't learn it with 10,000 yuan. It's better to do it early than late.
Finally, there is no conflict between long-term and short-term. One is the economic cycle and the other is the short-term power of the market. #以太坊ETF批准预期 #机构积极投资比特币ETF #MemeWatch2024 #芝商所拟推出比特币现货交易 #BTC走势分析
The turning point of global liquidity is getting closer and closer.
When it falls, I don't want to sell my meat, and I live in fear of falling every day. When it rises, I sell it immediately after getting my money back, and I live in fear of rising every day. "The Voice of the Poor"
The world is a decryption game.
Everyone's mission is to face various puzzles and unlock their innate wisdom and enlightenment.
People who can see through the essence of things in one second and those who can't see the essence of things in half a lifetime are destined to have completely different destinies.
Don't wait until you are 40 to understand the truth that you can understand at 20, and don't wait until you can't learn it with 10,000 yuan. It's better to do it early than late.
Finally, there is no conflict between long-term and short-term. One is the economic cycle and the other is the short-term power of the market. #以太坊ETF批准预期 #机构积极投资比特币ETF #MemeWatch2024 #芝商所拟推出比特币现货交易 #BTC走势分析
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I'll just make a random prediction. I feel that it will be difficult for Bitcoin to break through this time. If 65,500 can't hold, it may go back to around 60,000 to oscillate and accumulate strength again. If it pulls back, remember to do the B that you are optimistic about. Don't be afraid to buy when it falls and chase it when it rises.
This post does not involve the judgment of the big cycle mentioned earlier. If the big cycle remains unchanged, there will be another speculation on the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the reservoir will be filled up in the next few months after the interest rate cut to welcome the final frenzy. This is just a short-term sharing, and it is not judged based on the K-line. One is the stock of funds, and the other is the market sentiment and the acceptance of independent events.
Compared with a breakthrough, I think it needs new events to promote it and new expected value speculation. #RWA板块涨势强劲 #MemeWatch2024 #芝商所拟推出比特币现货交易 #机构积极投资比特币ETF #美国4月CPI数据回落
This post does not involve the judgment of the big cycle mentioned earlier. If the big cycle remains unchanged, there will be another speculation on the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the reservoir will be filled up in the next few months after the interest rate cut to welcome the final frenzy. This is just a short-term sharing, and it is not judged based on the K-line. One is the stock of funds, and the other is the market sentiment and the acceptance of independent events.
Compared with a breakthrough, I think it needs new events to promote it and new expected value speculation. #RWA板块涨势强劲 #MemeWatch2024 #芝商所拟推出比特币现货交易 #机构积极投资比特币ETF #美国4月CPI数据回落
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It seems that my friends still can't look directly at the current stage of money. What I said before is very clear. The initial ETF push, and then the expectation of interest rate cuts that will be hyped up next, but these are just pure independent event hype, not the inflow of the reservoir.
Why are the prices of altcoins such as Ethereum lagging behind Bitcoin? The reason is very simple. Now it is just an independent event. The real inflow of water will not come until the Fed cuts interest rates. After the interest rate cut, I said that you will see the grand occasion at the latest.
As for the market's feeling of the trend, and the current reaction before, they have all gone through, but people have selective memory, only remembering the madness and forgetting the process. #RWA板块涨势强劲 #MemeWatch2024 #机构积极投资比特币ETF #芝商所拟推出比特币现货交易 #美国4月CPI数据回落
Why are the prices of altcoins such as Ethereum lagging behind Bitcoin? The reason is very simple. Now it is just an independent event. The real inflow of water will not come until the Fed cuts interest rates. After the interest rate cut, I said that you will see the grand occasion at the latest.
As for the market's feeling of the trend, and the current reaction before, they have all gone through, but people have selective memory, only remembering the madness and forgetting the process. #RWA板块涨势强劲 #MemeWatch2024 #机构积极投资比特币ETF #芝商所拟推出比特币现货交易 #美国4月CPI数据回落
LIVE小辛不新苦
--
The most discussed independent event in the market recently is the interest rate cut, but I see that many brothers do not quite understand the triggering conditions of the interest rate cut, and the reaction of the entire risk market after the interest rate cut and a normal link including the closed loop.
Let's talk about the triggering conditions of the interest rate cut first. It is not necessarily that there will be an interest rate cut only in a recession. One is that the national economy is doing well when the interest rate is high, which can make the inflation rate return to a low level, and then the interest rate will start to cut, the liquidity of funds will start to rise, and more new funds will be introduced into the market. The other is the unemployment rate problem I mentioned earlier, which is also a triggering condition.
After the interest rate cut, it does not mean that the market will definitely start to improve immediately. In my opinion, the first one or two months before the interest rate cut are really good days. After all, this is a good independent event that is enough to stimulate and attract external funds for the market.
On the contrary, the market reaction after the first interest rate cut may be disappointing. In fact, for those who think that as long as the interest rate cut is announced, I will rush in immediately, it is probably not a perfect choice. It is true that interest rate cuts are equal to loosening the money supply, but at the same time it is also a big mistake. Loosening the money supply does not appear immediately. There is a time lag. We have overlooked a problem that we may face a short-term recession after the interest rate cut.
The second recession in history may occur in the inversion of this wave of interest rates. I said that there may be another high point after this year's interest rate cut and the election, which is the high point that we must leave. Remember the problem mentioned above. One to two months before the interest rate cut, the market will be stimulated by this independent market and there will be a wave of madness. After all, if there is a recession before the stimulus of news or the consideration of institutions to realize before the market recession, it is worth the market to go crazy.
Some brothers may feel very contradictory when they see this. In fact, there is no contradiction at all in essence. They are talking about the speculation of the trend before and after the interest rate cut. So if there is a long bear market after the interest rate cut, it is not the case. Just like the previous speculation whether there will be a recession, if it comes, then the trigger conditions for the subsequent release of water will appear.
It does not mean that there will be no bull market without interest rate cuts, but interest rate cuts and water releases will definitely lead to a big bull market. In fact, I think this wave of market is likely to be such a trend, and it will usher in a high point again, but it is definitely not the end of the past few years. As for the price, don't let me predict it. I don't know. In my eyes, those who predict the price are all charlatans. Take one step at a time. When it reaches a peak later, I will try my best to make a reminder within my cognition.
By the way, the time point for loosening money supply may appear about half a year after the interest rate cut. Of course, this is just my guess. No one dares to say that they are completely sure about this market. Everything is within their expectations. Oh, I am so tired. I haven't read it smoothly after writing it. Please forgive me if there are any contradictions in the text.
It's a habit I developed when I was in school. I remember that the thing that parents and teachers emphasized the most was that you must check the time after finishing the test paper. But I have never had this habit since I was a child. The final result is that I only remembered that I could have done the question correctly after handing in the paper, but I got it wrong in the end.
#BTC走势分析 #降息期待 #放水 #以太坊ETF批准预期
Let's talk about the triggering conditions of the interest rate cut first. It is not necessarily that there will be an interest rate cut only in a recession. One is that the national economy is doing well when the interest rate is high, which can make the inflation rate return to a low level, and then the interest rate will start to cut, the liquidity of funds will start to rise, and more new funds will be introduced into the market. The other is the unemployment rate problem I mentioned earlier, which is also a triggering condition.
After the interest rate cut, it does not mean that the market will definitely start to improve immediately. In my opinion, the first one or two months before the interest rate cut are really good days. After all, this is a good independent event that is enough to stimulate and attract external funds for the market.
On the contrary, the market reaction after the first interest rate cut may be disappointing. In fact, for those who think that as long as the interest rate cut is announced, I will rush in immediately, it is probably not a perfect choice. It is true that interest rate cuts are equal to loosening the money supply, but at the same time it is also a big mistake. Loosening the money supply does not appear immediately. There is a time lag. We have overlooked a problem that we may face a short-term recession after the interest rate cut.
The second recession in history may occur in the inversion of this wave of interest rates. I said that there may be another high point after this year's interest rate cut and the election, which is the high point that we must leave. Remember the problem mentioned above. One to two months before the interest rate cut, the market will be stimulated by this independent market and there will be a wave of madness. After all, if there is a recession before the stimulus of news or the consideration of institutions to realize before the market recession, it is worth the market to go crazy.
Some brothers may feel very contradictory when they see this. In fact, there is no contradiction at all in essence. They are talking about the speculation of the trend before and after the interest rate cut. So if there is a long bear market after the interest rate cut, it is not the case. Just like the previous speculation whether there will be a recession, if it comes, then the trigger conditions for the subsequent release of water will appear.
It does not mean that there will be no bull market without interest rate cuts, but interest rate cuts and water releases will definitely lead to a big bull market. In fact, I think this wave of market is likely to be such a trend, and it will usher in a high point again, but it is definitely not the end of the past few years. As for the price, don't let me predict it. I don't know. In my eyes, those who predict the price are all charlatans. Take one step at a time. When it reaches a peak later, I will try my best to make a reminder within my cognition.
By the way, the time point for loosening money supply may appear about half a year after the interest rate cut. Of course, this is just my guess. No one dares to say that they are completely sure about this market. Everything is within their expectations. Oh, I am so tired. I haven't read it smoothly after writing it. Please forgive me if there are any contradictions in the text.
It's a habit I developed when I was in school. I remember that the thing that parents and teachers emphasized the most was that you must check the time after finishing the test paper. But I have never had this habit since I was a child. The final result is that I only remembered that I could have done the question correctly after handing in the paper, but I got it wrong in the end.
#BTC走势分析 #降息期待 #放水 #以太坊ETF批准预期
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The third good signal of macroeconomic improvement: April CPI and core CPI year-on-year and month-on-month are in line with expectations and lower than the previous value, and even CPI is slightly lower than expected month-on-month.
In the process of waiting for improvement, some signals need to be gradually confirmed. This is a process of confidence restoration and reconstruction, and it is easy to have twists and turns in the middle. It cannot be said that the current market is completely positive, but it is also a step forward.
Some people always feel that they understand Powell's speech, but the combination will be different. Less self-righteousness and more data combination, when the liquidity is particularly good, it can indeed be ignored, but when the liquidity stock is insufficient, the speech data is the vane. #美国4月CPI数据回落 #PEPE创历史新高 #PEPE创历史新高 #Meme币你看好哪一个？ #新币挖矿
In the process of waiting for improvement, some signals need to be gradually confirmed. This is a process of confidence restoration and reconstruction, and it is easy to have twists and turns in the middle. It cannot be said that the current market is completely positive, but it is also a step forward.
Some people always feel that they understand Powell's speech, but the combination will be different. Less self-righteousness and more data combination, when the liquidity is particularly good, it can indeed be ignored, but when the liquidity stock is insufficient, the speech data is the vane. #美国4月CPI数据回落 #PEPE创历史新高 #PEPE创历史新高 #Meme币你看好哪一个？ #新币挖矿
LIVE小辛不新苦
--
Powell's speech, in the post I wrote this morning, some friends said that they didn't quite understand why Powell repeatedly emphasized that the Fed might not raise interest rates further. In fact, there are two points: either he really doesn't want to raise interest rates, or he knows something in advance and has the confidence.
One is that he described the market-recognized poor PPI data as mixed, and his tendency can still be seen. This sentence is worth pondering and thinking about. #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布 #PEPE创历史新高 #GameStop带动Meme板块 #Meme币你看好哪一个？ #新币挖矿
One is that he described the market-recognized poor PPI data as mixed, and his tendency can still be seen. This sentence is worth pondering and thinking about. #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布 #PEPE创历史新高 #GameStop带动Meme板块 #Meme币你看好哪一个？ #新币挖矿
See original
Powell's speech, in the post I wrote this morning, some friends said that they didn't quite understand why Powell repeatedly emphasized that the Fed might not raise interest rates further. In fact, there are two points: either he really doesn't want to raise interest rates, or he knows something in advance and has the confidence.
One is that he described the market-recognized poor PPI data as mixed, and his tendency can still be seen. This sentence is worth pondering and thinking about. #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布 #PEPE创历史新高 #GameStop带动Meme板块 #Meme币你看好哪一个？ #新币挖矿
One is that he described the market-recognized poor PPI data as mixed, and his tendency can still be seen. This sentence is worth pondering and thinking about. #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布 #PEPE创历史新高 #GameStop带动Meme板块 #Meme币你看好哪一个？ #新币挖矿
LIVE小辛不新苦
--
There is nothing to talk about today, so let's just talk about the perfunctory content! Let's briefly talk about the memories of last night and roughly interpret Powell's speech.
Let's start with the speech. First of all, Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current data will not support further interest rate hikes. At present, we don't need to consider too much. What we need to pay attention to is that the unemployment rate is a weather vane, and the core pec and cpi are enough.
Even if the CPI data in May declines, it is unlikely that interest rates will be adjusted in June and July. At present, it is good to be able to cut interest rates in September without an economic recession. So my previous prediction for September was still very optimistic for the first time, and it is really difficult for July.
Before September comes, no matter Powell's speech or CPI and PPI can only have a small impact until the interest rate cut in September. In other words, it is a wide range of fluctuations. As long as it does not fall below the support level of BTC (which can be compared with the price of miners), there will basically be no drastic changes. Everything will wait for the expected speculation in July and August.
#BTC走势分析 #山寨币热点 #GameStop带动Meme板块 #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布
Let's start with the speech. First of all, Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current data will not support further interest rate hikes. At present, we don't need to consider too much. What we need to pay attention to is that the unemployment rate is a weather vane, and the core pec and cpi are enough.
Even if the CPI data in May declines, it is unlikely that interest rates will be adjusted in June and July. At present, it is good to be able to cut interest rates in September without an economic recession. So my previous prediction for September was still very optimistic for the first time, and it is really difficult for July.
Before September comes, no matter Powell's speech or CPI and PPI can only have a small impact until the interest rate cut in September. In other words, it is a wide range of fluctuations. As long as it does not fall below the support level of BTC (which can be compared with the price of miners), there will basically be no drastic changes. Everything will wait for the expected speculation in July and August.
#BTC走势分析 #山寨币热点 #GameStop带动Meme板块 #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布
See original
There is nothing to talk about today, so let's just talk about the perfunctory content! Let's briefly talk about the memories of last night and roughly interpret Powell's speech.
Let's start with the speech. First of all, Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current data will not support further interest rate hikes. At present, we don't need to consider too much. What we need to pay attention to is that the unemployment rate is a weather vane, and the core pec and cpi are enough.
Even if the CPI data in May declines, it is unlikely that interest rates will be adjusted in June and July. At present, it is good to be able to cut interest rates in September without an economic recession. So my previous prediction for September was still very optimistic for the first time, and it is really difficult for July.
Before September comes, no matter Powell's speech or CPI and PPI can only have a small impact until the interest rate cut in September. In other words, it is a wide range of fluctuations. As long as it does not fall below the support level of BTC (which can be compared with the price of miners), there will basically be no drastic changes. Everything will wait for the expected speculation in July and August.
#BTC走势分析 #山寨币热点 #GameStop带动Meme板块 #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布
Let's start with the speech. First of all, Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current data will not support further interest rate hikes. At present, we don't need to consider too much. What we need to pay attention to is that the unemployment rate is a weather vane, and the core pec and cpi are enough.
Even if the CPI data in May declines, it is unlikely that interest rates will be adjusted in June and July. At present, it is good to be able to cut interest rates in September without an economic recession. So my previous prediction for September was still very optimistic for the first time, and it is really difficult for July.
Before September comes, no matter Powell's speech or CPI and PPI can only have a small impact until the interest rate cut in September. In other words, it is a wide range of fluctuations. As long as it does not fall below the support level of BTC (which can be compared with the price of miners), there will basically be no drastic changes. Everything will wait for the expected speculation in July and August.
#BTC走势分析 #山寨币热点 #GameStop带动Meme板块 #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布
See original
GameStop is a 21-year-old story. The familiar script is that masks will soar and plummet, and then small investors will rush to the crypto market in the siege of Wall Street [laugh cry]
Why does the volatile market fluctuate? It seems very simple. One is the stock liquidity that is often mentioned, and it is to repeatedly test some uncertain factors.
The volatile leverage is difficult to play, and it is not friendly to most people. If you use a stop loss, you will turn around again. If you don’t use a stop loss, you don’t know when it will be forced to close. The so-called minority should have strong strength.
Never become a hungry wolf, because a hungry wolf will throw away all the burdens on its body and rush forward without hesitation when it sees blood food.
Try to examine yourself as much as possible. Whether you can make money in this market is related to your investment level and cognitive mentality, or whether you have just caught up with the general rise cycle to achieve growth.
If it is given by the market, then you must not think of your own strength. If it is your own strength, then continue to maintain it. How to verify whether it is your own strength is very simple. Just compare the amount of funds at the beginning of the year with the current amount to see whether it has increased and how much it has increased.
My data is not necessarily accurate. It is just my own observation and help from private messages. From the beginning of the year to now, at least 90% of them are losses. Most of them are extremely confident that they are trading geniuses. Later, due to the sharp retracement, they become unbalanced and lose all their chips. It is so simple to go from huge profits to losses.
#BTC走势分析 #ETFvsBTC #Meme币你看好哪一个？ #GameStop带动Meme板块
Why does the volatile market fluctuate? It seems very simple. One is the stock liquidity that is often mentioned, and it is to repeatedly test some uncertain factors.
The volatile leverage is difficult to play, and it is not friendly to most people. If you use a stop loss, you will turn around again. If you don’t use a stop loss, you don’t know when it will be forced to close. The so-called minority should have strong strength.
Never become a hungry wolf, because a hungry wolf will throw away all the burdens on its body and rush forward without hesitation when it sees blood food.
Try to examine yourself as much as possible. Whether you can make money in this market is related to your investment level and cognitive mentality, or whether you have just caught up with the general rise cycle to achieve growth.
If it is given by the market, then you must not think of your own strength. If it is your own strength, then continue to maintain it. How to verify whether it is your own strength is very simple. Just compare the amount of funds at the beginning of the year with the current amount to see whether it has increased and how much it has increased.
My data is not necessarily accurate. It is just my own observation and help from private messages. From the beginning of the year to now, at least 90% of them are losses. Most of them are extremely confident that they are trading geniuses. Later, due to the sharp retracement, they become unbalanced and lose all their chips. It is so simple to go from huge profits to losses.
#BTC走势分析 #ETFvsBTC #Meme币你看好哪一个？ #GameStop带动Meme板块
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I haven't talked about Merlin, but some fans asked me to share my opinion. The starting point of this B is very high. The early hype also determines its starting point, so the opening also creates a false high. oEasy to participate in investment, cooperate with the currency and then fall from a false high to a solid, oEasy to participate in the head and cooperate with B at the same time, there are some secrets that cannot be told.
But I think it will definitely have a crazy rise in the future, that is, it is difficult for people to judge the bottom. If you ask me to make suggestions, I think that if there is a chance to reach around 0.2, it should be a very good position.
At worst, it is okay to be around 0.3. It's roughly in this range. When people are heading towards despair, it is its spring. To be honest, if it can reach this range, I will definitely consider getting on board.
After all, melr will only look good if it falls low enough and then rises. It's okay to have prejudices, but don't have prejudices after it is low enough.
#灰度撤回以太坊期货etf申请 #BTC走势分析 #梅林
But I think it will definitely have a crazy rise in the future, that is, it is difficult for people to judge the bottom. If you ask me to make suggestions, I think that if there is a chance to reach around 0.2, it should be a very good position.
At worst, it is okay to be around 0.3. It's roughly in this range. When people are heading towards despair, it is its spring. To be honest, if it can reach this range, I will definitely consider getting on board.
After all, melr will only look good if it falls low enough and then rises. It's okay to have prejudices, but don't have prejudices after it is low enough.
#灰度撤回以太坊期货etf申请 #BTC走势分析 #梅林
See original
The most discussed independent event in the market recently is the interest rate cut, but I see that many brothers do not quite understand the triggering conditions of the interest rate cut, and the reaction of the entire risk market after the interest rate cut and a normal link including the closed loop.
Let's talk about the triggering conditions of the interest rate cut first. It is not necessarily that there will be an interest rate cut only in a recession. One is that the national economy is doing well when the interest rate is high, which can make the inflation rate return to a low level, and then the interest rate will start to cut, the liquidity of funds will start to rise, and more new funds will be introduced into the market. The other is the unemployment rate problem I mentioned earlier, which is also a triggering condition.
After the interest rate cut, it does not mean that the market will definitely start to improve immediately. In my opinion, the first one or two months before the interest rate cut are really good days. After all, this is a good independent event that is enough to stimulate and attract external funds for the market.
On the contrary, the market reaction after the first interest rate cut may be disappointing. In fact, for those who think that as long as the interest rate cut is announced, I will rush in immediately, it is probably not a perfect choice. It is true that interest rate cuts are equal to loosening the money supply, but at the same time it is also a big mistake. Loosening the money supply does not appear immediately. There is a time lag. We have overlooked a problem that we may face a short-term recession after the interest rate cut.
The second recession in history may occur in the inversion of this wave of interest rates. I said that there may be another high point after this year's interest rate cut and the election, which is the high point that we must leave. Remember the problem mentioned above. One to two months before the interest rate cut, the market will be stimulated by this independent market and there will be a wave of madness. After all, if there is a recession before the stimulus of news or the consideration of institutions to realize before the market recession, it is worth the market to go crazy.
Some brothers may feel very contradictory when they see this. In fact, there is no contradiction at all in essence. They are talking about the speculation of the trend before and after the interest rate cut. So if there is a long bear market after the interest rate cut, it is not the case. Just like the previous speculation whether there will be a recession, if it comes, then the trigger conditions for the subsequent release of water will appear.
It does not mean that there will be no bull market without interest rate cuts, but interest rate cuts and water releases will definitely lead to a big bull market. In fact, I think this wave of market is likely to be such a trend, and it will usher in a high point again, but it is definitely not the end of the past few years. As for the price, don't let me predict it. I don't know. In my eyes, those who predict the price are all charlatans. Take one step at a time. When it reaches a peak later, I will try my best to make a reminder within my cognition.
By the way, the time point for loosening money supply may appear about half a year after the interest rate cut. Of course, this is just my guess. No one dares to say that they are completely sure about this market. Everything is within their expectations. Oh, I am so tired. I haven't read it smoothly after writing it. Please forgive me if there are any contradictions in the text.
It's a habit I developed when I was in school. I remember that the thing that parents and teachers emphasized the most was that you must check the time after finishing the test paper. But I have never had this habit since I was a child. The final result is that I only remembered that I could have done the question correctly after handing in the paper, but I got it wrong in the end.
#BTC走势分析 #降息期待 #放水 #以太坊ETF批准预期
Let's talk about the triggering conditions of the interest rate cut first. It is not necessarily that there will be an interest rate cut only in a recession. One is that the national economy is doing well when the interest rate is high, which can make the inflation rate return to a low level, and then the interest rate will start to cut, the liquidity of funds will start to rise, and more new funds will be introduced into the market. The other is the unemployment rate problem I mentioned earlier, which is also a triggering condition.
After the interest rate cut, it does not mean that the market will definitely start to improve immediately. In my opinion, the first one or two months before the interest rate cut are really good days. After all, this is a good independent event that is enough to stimulate and attract external funds for the market.
On the contrary, the market reaction after the first interest rate cut may be disappointing. In fact, for those who think that as long as the interest rate cut is announced, I will rush in immediately, it is probably not a perfect choice. It is true that interest rate cuts are equal to loosening the money supply, but at the same time it is also a big mistake. Loosening the money supply does not appear immediately. There is a time lag. We have overlooked a problem that we may face a short-term recession after the interest rate cut.
The second recession in history may occur in the inversion of this wave of interest rates. I said that there may be another high point after this year's interest rate cut and the election, which is the high point that we must leave. Remember the problem mentioned above. One to two months before the interest rate cut, the market will be stimulated by this independent market and there will be a wave of madness. After all, if there is a recession before the stimulus of news or the consideration of institutions to realize before the market recession, it is worth the market to go crazy.
Some brothers may feel very contradictory when they see this. In fact, there is no contradiction at all in essence. They are talking about the speculation of the trend before and after the interest rate cut. So if there is a long bear market after the interest rate cut, it is not the case. Just like the previous speculation whether there will be a recession, if it comes, then the trigger conditions for the subsequent release of water will appear.
It does not mean that there will be no bull market without interest rate cuts, but interest rate cuts and water releases will definitely lead to a big bull market. In fact, I think this wave of market is likely to be such a trend, and it will usher in a high point again, but it is definitely not the end of the past few years. As for the price, don't let me predict it. I don't know. In my eyes, those who predict the price are all charlatans. Take one step at a time. When it reaches a peak later, I will try my best to make a reminder within my cognition.
By the way, the time point for loosening money supply may appear about half a year after the interest rate cut. Of course, this is just my guess. No one dares to say that they are completely sure about this market. Everything is within their expectations. Oh, I am so tired. I haven't read it smoothly after writing it. Please forgive me if there are any contradictions in the text.
It's a habit I developed when I was in school. I remember that the thing that parents and teachers emphasized the most was that you must check the time after finishing the test paper. But I have never had this habit since I was a child. The final result is that I only remembered that I could have done the question correctly after handing in the paper, but I got it wrong in the end.
#BTC走势分析 #降息期待 #放水 #以太坊ETF批准预期
See original
57k has rebounded by almost 10% so far. It is really difficult to just pay for cognition. No matter when, you must recognize whether you are investing or gambling. Seeing the big trend and the macro will make everything seem easy. As I said, I don’t have any skills, I just like to talk about conspiracy theories.
Maybe when a big negative line fell the day before yesterday, I said that I was determined to buy the bottom for you. Maybe everyone sneered. There is the bottom, don’t buy it halfway up the mountain. How to say it? Everything actually depends on your own plan, and the plan makes people take action.
Anyway, as I said, don’t understand gambling on size when investing. Finding the bottom and the top are both zero-probability events, unless you have traveled through time or can calculate Zhouyi. Some of the things I told you the day before yesterday may not have to wait for a while. Today, you may feel that I am late to realize it.
At that time, the idea after reading it might be that it was nonsense, not just to make me insist on buying. How can I buy it when it falls so much? If I buy it, I will definitely be trapped! Or if they still want me to take it, I'd better cut my losses quickly, otherwise I don't know when I will be trapped again. Hey, then today I look at my cao and it really makes sense! What should I do at that time?
As I said before, why are leeks called leeks? They don't insist when they should insist, and they insist desperately when they shouldn't insist. You and I are both leeks and the main force can swing the sickle to cut us at any time. The essential difference between you and me is that my cognition may be a little higher than yours.
Anyway, there are not many people like me who share their trading plans without hesitation. Sincerity is exchanged for sincerity. Treat others well and treat yourself well. Speaking of this, it reminds me of the recent hot search fat cat, who was asked for 510,000 by the national service fairy for two years, and finally broke up because he was a woman. In the end, this brother jumped into the river. In fact, how can I say that this brother is persistent in love but does not treat himself well.
Forget it, I won't talk about topics outside the circle, let's talk about the next market. It is unlikely that the stock price will rise to the sky. The market will probably fluctuate widely in May. It is not that you cannot make money in May, but it may be a little harder to make money. It is not friendly to many people. If you feel that you are not capable, just stop wasting time and look forward to the opportunity to make money in June or July.
#btc走勢 #eth二饼 #BTC走势分析
Maybe when a big negative line fell the day before yesterday, I said that I was determined to buy the bottom for you. Maybe everyone sneered. There is the bottom, don’t buy it halfway up the mountain. How to say it? Everything actually depends on your own plan, and the plan makes people take action.
Anyway, as I said, don’t understand gambling on size when investing. Finding the bottom and the top are both zero-probability events, unless you have traveled through time or can calculate Zhouyi. Some of the things I told you the day before yesterday may not have to wait for a while. Today, you may feel that I am late to realize it.
At that time, the idea after reading it might be that it was nonsense, not just to make me insist on buying. How can I buy it when it falls so much? If I buy it, I will definitely be trapped! Or if they still want me to take it, I'd better cut my losses quickly, otherwise I don't know when I will be trapped again. Hey, then today I look at my cao and it really makes sense! What should I do at that time?
As I said before, why are leeks called leeks? They don't insist when they should insist, and they insist desperately when they shouldn't insist. You and I are both leeks and the main force can swing the sickle to cut us at any time. The essential difference between you and me is that my cognition may be a little higher than yours.
Anyway, there are not many people like me who share their trading plans without hesitation. Sincerity is exchanged for sincerity. Treat others well and treat yourself well. Speaking of this, it reminds me of the recent hot search fat cat, who was asked for 510,000 by the national service fairy for two years, and finally broke up because he was a woman. In the end, this brother jumped into the river. In fact, how can I say that this brother is persistent in love but does not treat himself well.
Forget it, I won't talk about topics outside the circle, let's talk about the next market. It is unlikely that the stock price will rise to the sky. The market will probably fluctuate widely in May. It is not that you cannot make money in May, but it may be a little harder to make money. It is not friendly to many people. If you feel that you are not capable, just stop wasting time and look forward to the opportunity to make money in June or July.
#btc走勢 #eth二饼 #BTC走势分析
LIVE小辛不新苦
--
Now some brothers are asking how to operate now. In fact, you only need to look at the essence and don't understand investment as gambling.
Who can fomo you? Who can say that there is an absolute bottom? What is gambling? I want to copy the big bottom and sell the big top.
What is investment? Of course, it is a choice of range and cost performance. When it was around 70,000, my advice to you was that the fomo stage and the ambush cycle had passed.
Trends are staged. The bull market and the bear market count the stages differently. The bull market counts the periods by trough, and the bear market counts the periods by peak. That is to say, there will be a relatively large trough between the second and third periods. You may not be able to sell at the highest, but you can sell while rising.
So is it a big correction now? Is it a buying opportunity in the second and third stages? At that time, I said that I would sell slowly. Many people in the comment area said that I could hold on to the third cycle. Now I have no confidence and only wail.
Don't persist when you should persist, and persist when you shouldn't persist. Otherwise, why are leeks called leeks! My friend, you have 57k. Where do you think the bottom is? Do you think you can find the absolute bottom?
You can't just invest honestly and plan your investment. Do you think I am right? I don't have any skills. I just share the strategies I think are better. Many times, you may not feel much when you share what I share, but you may feel that it makes sense after a while. This may be called hindsight.
#BTC下跌分析 #btc走勢 #eth二饼
Who can fomo you? Who can say that there is an absolute bottom? What is gambling? I want to copy the big bottom and sell the big top.
What is investment? Of course, it is a choice of range and cost performance. When it was around 70,000, my advice to you was that the fomo stage and the ambush cycle had passed.
Trends are staged. The bull market and the bear market count the stages differently. The bull market counts the periods by trough, and the bear market counts the periods by peak. That is to say, there will be a relatively large trough between the second and third periods. You may not be able to sell at the highest, but you can sell while rising.
So is it a big correction now? Is it a buying opportunity in the second and third stages? At that time, I said that I would sell slowly. Many people in the comment area said that I could hold on to the third cycle. Now I have no confidence and only wail.
Don't persist when you should persist, and persist when you shouldn't persist. Otherwise, why are leeks called leeks! My friend, you have 57k. Where do you think the bottom is? Do you think you can find the absolute bottom?
You can't just invest honestly and plan your investment. Do you think I am right? I don't have any skills. I just share the strategies I think are better. Many times, you may not feel much when you share what I share, but you may feel that it makes sense after a while. This may be called hindsight.
#BTC下跌分析 #btc走勢 #eth二饼
See original
Bao Shifu's speech two days ago combined with tonight's non-agricultural data makes people feel that the interest rate cut is not far away. The confidence in maintaining the original judgment of interest rate cut in September continues to increase. Of course, it would be better if it could happen in July and August. After all, the earlier the friendlier it is.
Some brothers may say that you didn't see the traders say September before you said September. I remember this clearly. When I said it might be September, the analysis of those traders had not been announced. The first time I published my opinion on the September interest rate cut was on April 8, and the news forecast of those traders was announced on April 26.
Of course, it's not that I'm so awesome. It can only be said that heroes think alike. The big traders of interest rates will definitely not use my reference. I just predicted their prediction in advance.
#BTC月线 #eth二饼 #美联储何时降息？
Some brothers may say that you didn't see the traders say September before you said September. I remember this clearly. When I said it might be September, the analysis of those traders had not been announced. The first time I published my opinion on the September interest rate cut was on April 8, and the news forecast of those traders was announced on April 26.
Of course, it's not that I'm so awesome. It can only be said that heroes think alike. The big traders of interest rates will definitely not use my reference. I just predicted their prediction in advance.
#BTC月线 #eth二饼 #美联储何时降息？
See original
Buffering is understood as a transition, a repair and adjustment period for the market and emotions. It cannot be simply defined by the word "end". End means no more, the end. Even without ETF, the funds and on-chain data in the second quarter of last year fully meet the standards of the beginning of the bear-to-bull transition. ETF just speeds up the progress emotionally and overdraws purchasing power. Since it is an overdraft, it always needs to slow down and take a break.
If we jump out of the present and look back at the past, you will find that it is not so "terrible". The following figure shows the retracement ratio of BTC's price from the highest point before and after the three halvings in history.
The first halving, the retracement from the highest point was -61.7%;
The second halving, the retracement from the highest point was -42.7%;
The third halving, the retracement from the highest point was -56.6%;
There have been many times in history when the retracement was more than 30%. A problem that has been mentioned many times before is that because ETFs have been highly consistent with US stocks through Bitcoin, in fact, the rhythm of this round was disrupted by ETFs in the early stage, otherwise there should be the opportunity of the three-line integration mentioned earlier, and the current price may still be around 40,000. In addition, the bull market of BTC itself will start in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
Don't expect too much for events that do not affect human survival and destiny.
There is also the altcoin season, which I think will definitely happen later. The outbreak of altcoins requires sufficient liquidity, and the release of liquidity requires several factors.
For example, the altcoin season in 2021 is an unprecedented release of water, and then a large amount of funds will overflow into (altcoins) after making profits in Bitcoin or other mainstream markets, which will drive the arrival of the altcoin season.
Therefore, the outbreak of altcoins usually comes after Bitcoin, but at least this time, although the first batch of increases came from BTC, there was no large amount of overflow funds.
In fact, a large number of sell-offs came from loss-making investors. Not to mention overflow funds, even the principal is not guaranteed, so it is normal that you feel that it is not altcoin season.
As mentioned two years ago, if we see a 4% unemployment rate before the election, there will be a new release of liquidity. In fact, this is the release of liquidity, which is actually a whole range, and even a good opportunity for altcoins.
#美联储何时降息？ #5月市场关键事件 #btc走勢 #e
If we jump out of the present and look back at the past, you will find that it is not so "terrible". The following figure shows the retracement ratio of BTC's price from the highest point before and after the three halvings in history.
The first halving, the retracement from the highest point was -61.7%;
The second halving, the retracement from the highest point was -42.7%;
The third halving, the retracement from the highest point was -56.6%;
There have been many times in history when the retracement was more than 30%. A problem that has been mentioned many times before is that because ETFs have been highly consistent with US stocks through Bitcoin, in fact, the rhythm of this round was disrupted by ETFs in the early stage, otherwise there should be the opportunity of the three-line integration mentioned earlier, and the current price may still be around 40,000. In addition, the bull market of BTC itself will start in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
Don't expect too much for events that do not affect human survival and destiny.
There is also the altcoin season, which I think will definitely happen later. The outbreak of altcoins requires sufficient liquidity, and the release of liquidity requires several factors.
For example, the altcoin season in 2021 is an unprecedented release of water, and then a large amount of funds will overflow into (altcoins) after making profits in Bitcoin or other mainstream markets, which will drive the arrival of the altcoin season.
Therefore, the outbreak of altcoins usually comes after Bitcoin, but at least this time, although the first batch of increases came from BTC, there was no large amount of overflow funds.
In fact, a large number of sell-offs came from loss-making investors. Not to mention overflow funds, even the principal is not guaranteed, so it is normal that you feel that it is not altcoin season.
As mentioned two years ago, if we see a 4% unemployment rate before the election, there will be a new release of liquidity. In fact, this is the release of liquidity, which is actually a whole range, and even a good opportunity for altcoins.
#美联储何时降息？ #5月市场关键事件 #btc走勢 #e
See original
Now some brothers are asking how to operate now. In fact, you only need to look at the essence and don't understand investment as gambling.
Who can fomo you? Who can say that there is an absolute bottom? What is gambling? I want to copy the big bottom and sell the big top.
What is investment? Of course, it is a choice of range and cost performance. When it was around 70,000, my advice to you was that the fomo stage and the ambush cycle had passed.
Trends are staged. The bull market and the bear market count the stages differently. The bull market counts the periods by trough, and the bear market counts the periods by peak. That is to say, there will be a relatively large trough between the second and third periods. You may not be able to sell at the highest, but you can sell while rising.
So is it a big correction now? Is it a buying opportunity in the second and third stages? At that time, I said that I would sell slowly. Many people in the comment area said that I could hold on to the third cycle. Now I have no confidence and only wail.
Don't persist when you should persist, and persist when you shouldn't persist. Otherwise, why are leeks called leeks! My friend, you have 57k. Where do you think the bottom is? Do you think you can find the absolute bottom?
You can't just invest honestly and plan your investment. Do you think I am right? I don't have any skills. I just share the strategies I think are better. Many times, you may not feel much when you share what I share, but you may feel that it makes sense after a while. This may be called hindsight.
#BTC下跌分析 #btc走勢 #eth二饼
Who can fomo you? Who can say that there is an absolute bottom? What is gambling? I want to copy the big bottom and sell the big top.
What is investment? Of course, it is a choice of range and cost performance. When it was around 70,000, my advice to you was that the fomo stage and the ambush cycle had passed.
Trends are staged. The bull market and the bear market count the stages differently. The bull market counts the periods by trough, and the bear market counts the periods by peak. That is to say, there will be a relatively large trough between the second and third periods. You may not be able to sell at the highest, but you can sell while rising.
So is it a big correction now? Is it a buying opportunity in the second and third stages? At that time, I said that I would sell slowly. Many people in the comment area said that I could hold on to the third cycle. Now I have no confidence and only wail.
Don't persist when you should persist, and persist when you shouldn't persist. Otherwise, why are leeks called leeks! My friend, you have 57k. Where do you think the bottom is? Do you think you can find the absolute bottom?
You can't just invest honestly and plan your investment. Do you think I am right? I don't have any skills. I just share the strategies I think are better. Many times, you may not feel much when you share what I share, but you may feel that it makes sense after a while. This may be called hindsight.
#BTC下跌分析 #btc走勢 #eth二饼
See original
It's a bit late to clock in today, so let's talk about last night's meeting first.
It's much better than the phenomenon. Through the questions, we can see that the market is most concerned not about when the Fed will cut interest rates, and how many times it will cut interest rates, but whether the Fed will raise interest rates. Powell's answer to this is very direct. Even if inflation (core PCE) returns to 3%, it is currently 2.8%, and the Fed has no intention of continuing to raise interest rates, at least for now. For the Fed, the current interest rate is restrictive enough.
Then his answer to the interest rate cut is based on the data each time, and he did not hold a negative attitude towards the possibility of three interest rate cuts in the March dot plot. Then Powell said that the focus of the Fed now is the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate rises to more than 4%, it is now 3.8%, then the Fed may rebalance and consider whether to enter a defensive interest rate cut.
Too high an unemployment rate is very unfriendly to the Democratic Party. If you can see a 4% unemployment rate before the election, then there will be a new release of money. The data determines the trend of each step of the Fed, but also denies the Fed's interference in the global economy, especially Japan.
Powell did not want to discuss the expectation of rate cuts too much in this meeting. Let's pay more attention to unemployment rate and pec in the future. The speculation of rate cuts will be postponed.
Changes in Fed liquidity: balance sheet reduction -> balance sheet reduction (QT) halved -> balance sheet reduction (QT) stopped -> start easing (QE) Analogous to the trend of the big pie: decline -> stop falling -> sideways -> start rising
For the trend, rate hikes mean the beginning of bad news, suspension of rate hikes indicates good expectations, rate cuts begin to bring damage, and liquidity increases after rate cuts. This is a big trend. There may be different structures in the middle, but the results are often inevitable, so there is nothing wrong. Everything is the interpretation of historical laws. The difference is that the scripts are different, but the endings are the same.
#5月市场关键事件 #香港加密货币ETF #美联储利率决议即将公布
It's much better than the phenomenon. Through the questions, we can see that the market is most concerned not about when the Fed will cut interest rates, and how many times it will cut interest rates, but whether the Fed will raise interest rates. Powell's answer to this is very direct. Even if inflation (core PCE) returns to 3%, it is currently 2.8%, and the Fed has no intention of continuing to raise interest rates, at least for now. For the Fed, the current interest rate is restrictive enough.
Then his answer to the interest rate cut is based on the data each time, and he did not hold a negative attitude towards the possibility of three interest rate cuts in the March dot plot. Then Powell said that the focus of the Fed now is the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate rises to more than 4%, it is now 3.8%, then the Fed may rebalance and consider whether to enter a defensive interest rate cut.
Too high an unemployment rate is very unfriendly to the Democratic Party. If you can see a 4% unemployment rate before the election, then there will be a new release of money. The data determines the trend of each step of the Fed, but also denies the Fed's interference in the global economy, especially Japan.
Powell did not want to discuss the expectation of rate cuts too much in this meeting. Let's pay more attention to unemployment rate and pec in the future. The speculation of rate cuts will be postponed.
Changes in Fed liquidity: balance sheet reduction -> balance sheet reduction (QT) halved -> balance sheet reduction (QT) stopped -> start easing (QE) Analogous to the trend of the big pie: decline -> stop falling -> sideways -> start rising
For the trend, rate hikes mean the beginning of bad news, suspension of rate hikes indicates good expectations, rate cuts begin to bring damage, and liquidity increases after rate cuts. This is a big trend. There may be different structures in the middle, but the results are often inevitable, so there is nothing wrong. Everything is the interpretation of historical laws. The difference is that the scripts are different, but the endings are the same.
#5月市场关键事件 #香港加密货币ETF #美联储利率决议即将公布
See original
Sheep are afraid of wolves all their lives, but they are eaten by shepherds in the end.
The dangers you worry about are just probabilistic events that everyone worries about. What you think is safe and what you don’t care about may be the most deadly.
Just like many new projects in the crypto market are increasingly treating users as people, project owners are becoming more and more like scammers and bandits, and users are becoming more and more like pigs and dogs, encircling, defrauding, slaughtering and harvesting. The valuation is too high, the circulation is too small, and they are eager to buy all the coins for you.
Just like many people think there is no cottage season, in the 2017 violent bull market cottage season, the market share of big cake dropped from around 90% to around 35%~
In the 2021 violent bull market cottage season, the market share of big cake dropped from around 70% to around 35%~
From last year to this year's big market, the market share of big cake has been slowly climbing, and it has not dropped~ Indirectly indicating that the real cottage season has never come~
The higher the current market share of big cake, the better it is for the later cottage season. Now the competition is who has more patience~
By the way, are you all on holiday today on May Day?
#香港加密货币ETF #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETH布拉格升级
The dangers you worry about are just probabilistic events that everyone worries about. What you think is safe and what you don’t care about may be the most deadly.
Just like many new projects in the crypto market are increasingly treating users as people, project owners are becoming more and more like scammers and bandits, and users are becoming more and more like pigs and dogs, encircling, defrauding, slaughtering and harvesting. The valuation is too high, the circulation is too small, and they are eager to buy all the coins for you.
Just like many people think there is no cottage season, in the 2017 violent bull market cottage season, the market share of big cake dropped from around 90% to around 35%~
In the 2021 violent bull market cottage season, the market share of big cake dropped from around 70% to around 35%~
From last year to this year's big market, the market share of big cake has been slowly climbing, and it has not dropped~ Indirectly indicating that the real cottage season has never come~
The higher the current market share of big cake, the better it is for the later cottage season. Now the competition is who has more patience~
By the way, are you all on holiday today on May Day?
#香港加密货币ETF #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETH布拉格升级
See original
There are a lot of US macro data released this week, especially the interest rate decision in the early morning of May 2. Although it is a foregone conclusion that there will be no interest rate cut, the key lies in Powell's statement.
From the perspective of time, today is a Fibonacci time window. With tomorrow's interest rate decision, the market may be unusually active in the next two days. Then, as I talked to you yesterday, Bitcoin is highly consistent with US stocks. The cost of absenteeism and the economic environment of the old US are unlikely to cause a sharp drop in the big cake. I think so.
So I still emphasize that if you don't give the swan time, don't expect any sharp drop. In fact, for me, the callback around 60,000 is a good bottom. From the perspective of trading, the cost-effectiveness is very high. Don't be too depressed. It's just that the market is more tiring.
I remember that I had said before this big drop that it might take 1-3 months to smooth out the callback, but this time node is very difficult to determine. How long is the exact time? But from the weekly K, this continuous long lower shadow shows that there are enough buyer forces around 6w to support it. I am optimistic that this is a process of accumulating funds. If the fluctuations here last long enough, a sufficient area for the turnover of chips will be formed, which will prepare for the next market boom. The final test is the capital confrontation between buyers and sellers.
However, if it really falls below 60,000, there is no way. It is not a big problem for spot, but for leverage, it may be necessary to clear the position, especially the leverage of copycat.
In a normal rising environment, the total contract position must meet the "price increase and volume increase", that is, while the price rises, the position should also rise synchronously. In the two rebounds in the past half month, although the price has risen, the total futures position of CME has remained basically the same, with no change. Therefore, in retrospect, the rebound is weak and cannot be transformed into a real rise. Pay attention to the changes in the total position of CME in the future (only pay attention to the total position of CME, and do not need to pay attention to the position of all contracts in the currency circle). "Price increase and volume increase" means a real rise.
How to view the contract position I put in the comment area, everyone can go and see it for yourself.
#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #美联储 #以太坊ETF
From the perspective of time, today is a Fibonacci time window. With tomorrow's interest rate decision, the market may be unusually active in the next two days. Then, as I talked to you yesterday, Bitcoin is highly consistent with US stocks. The cost of absenteeism and the economic environment of the old US are unlikely to cause a sharp drop in the big cake. I think so.
So I still emphasize that if you don't give the swan time, don't expect any sharp drop. In fact, for me, the callback around 60,000 is a good bottom. From the perspective of trading, the cost-effectiveness is very high. Don't be too depressed. It's just that the market is more tiring.
I remember that I had said before this big drop that it might take 1-3 months to smooth out the callback, but this time node is very difficult to determine. How long is the exact time? But from the weekly K, this continuous long lower shadow shows that there are enough buyer forces around 6w to support it. I am optimistic that this is a process of accumulating funds. If the fluctuations here last long enough, a sufficient area for the turnover of chips will be formed, which will prepare for the next market boom. The final test is the capital confrontation between buyers and sellers.
However, if it really falls below 60,000, there is no way. It is not a big problem for spot, but for leverage, it may be necessary to clear the position, especially the leverage of copycat.
In a normal rising environment, the total contract position must meet the "price increase and volume increase", that is, while the price rises, the position should also rise synchronously. In the two rebounds in the past half month, although the price has risen, the total futures position of CME has remained basically the same, with no change. Therefore, in retrospect, the rebound is weak and cannot be transformed into a real rise. Pay attention to the changes in the total position of CME in the future (only pay attention to the total position of CME, and do not need to pay attention to the position of all contracts in the currency circle). "Price increase and volume increase" means a real rise.
How to view the contract position I put in the comment area, everyone can go and see it for yourself.
#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #美联储 #以太坊ETF
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The top four gainers today, three of them are in this small box, ethfi is the best, ssv is rising quietly, and OP is a strong dealer.
#op走势 #SSV.每日智能策略 #ETHFI🔥🔥🔥 #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETH分析
#op走势 #SSV.每日智能策略 #ETHFI🔥🔥🔥 #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETH分析
