Keep calm and integrate knowledge and action.

2024.09.12:

The original @Kingfisher account could not be logged in due to Binance security restrictions (mandatory face recognition login). After communicating with Binance to no avail, it was decided to change the account. In the future, positions and transaction data will be released by this account.

We have already released real-time data on Coincoin. Because it is not convenient to publish positions in real time, only subscription codes are available for subscription at this stage. Friends who need subscription codes can send private messages or leave messages. PS: There are other small accounts under this account, which can be viewed directly.

Account status: Balance: $278,807, Position: $184,626. Dividends of 130,000 U, total yield close to 280%. The market risk will be relatively large before and after the interest rate cut cycle. It is not recommended to exceed 1 times the leverage, and wait for large fluctuations to come before adding positions.

Risk warning: Leverage is not a devil, but a tool to improve the utilization rate of funds. Leverage itself has no risk, and the real risk comes from human nature.
#DOGSONBINANCE #CPI_BTC_Watch #TelegramCEO #PowellAtJacksonHole #TopCoinsJune2024

The market is currently in a significant upward phase, and we are maintaining a position of 30%. We will wait to increase our position after a sharp decline and will not enter on the right side for now. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Everything starts with stop-loss

Today's Selection
Trump Media Technology Group's stock price triggered multiple circuit breakers
Netanyahu fires Defense Minister Gallant
Japan's largest industrial union: aiming for a 6% salary increase in 2025
State-owned assets announced the latest "balance sheet"
National Energy Administration: China completed the new energy installed capacity target six years ahead of schedule

Market Review
On Tuesday, as traders awaited the results of the US election, the dollar index continued to pull back, falling below the 104 level, ultimately closing down 0.467% at 103.41. US Treasury yields rose and then fell, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.281%; the 2-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.181%.
International crude oil rose for the second consecutive day, as Hurricane in the US Gulf of Mexico may reduce oil production, and the dollar weakened. WTI crude oil peaked at $72.34 per barrel during the session, then retreated slightly, ultimately closing up 0.39% at $71.72 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.16% at $75.35 per barrel.
The US stock market saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise by 1%, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.2%. The Nasdaq increased by 1.4%. Trump Media Technology Group (DJT.O) fell by 1%, triggering multiple circuit breakers due to high volatility during the session, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose over 3.5%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 2.8%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 1.6%, EHang Intelligent (EH.O) rose 10%, Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) rose 6%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) rose 0.8%.

International News
US Election - Trump Media Technology Group's stock price fluctuated significantly, triggering multiple circuit breakers; a voting machine in a county in Pennsylvania experienced a malfunction due to printing issues; Musk and Trump will spend election day together; a gas leak occurred at a polling station in Michigan, and voters were transferred to other polling stations; some voting machines in central Iowa experienced malfunctions; Edison Research released seven swing states and national exit polls, where two swing states showed a higher proportion of positive ratings for Trump than Harris, four swing states showed a higher proportion of positive ratings for Harris than Trump, and one swing state showed a tie, while national exit polls showed a higher proportion of positive ratings for Harris than Trump.

$btc $eth $sol

You can take risks, but you can't bet everything on one throw.
International News:
1. The initial annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter of the United States was 2.8%, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.2%, higher than the expected 2.1%, but lower than the previous value of 2.8%.
2. The number of ADP employment in the United States in October was 233,000, the largest increase since March 2024, far exceeding the market expectation of 114,000.
3. Multiple sources indicate that a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is imminent.
4. The Kremlin denied reports that "Ukraine and Russia held preliminary talks on stopping attacks on each other's energy facilities."
5. Sources said that OPEC+ may postpone the planned production increase originally scheduled for December by one month or more.
6. Germany's third-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP quarterly rate was better than expected, causing traders to cut expectations that the European Central Bank would cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December, with the probability downgraded from about 45% to 22%.
7. The UK autumn budget shows that it will increase taxes by 40 billion pounds; increase the income tax on private equity to 32%; increase the low-end tax rate of capital gains tax from 10% to 18%, and increase the high-end tax rate to 24%; fuel tax will not be increased next year.
8. World Gold Council: The total global gold demand in the third quarter of 2024 is 1,313 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%.

Domestic news:
1. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the final rules of US investment restrictions on China: China firmly opposes the US's final rules on investment restrictions on China, has made solemn representations to the US, and reserves the right to take measures.
2. Six departments: Accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic bases focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas.
3. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Hope that the EU will promote consultations with China in a constructive manner to avoid the expansion and escalation of trade frictions.
4. Some central enterprises have modified the energy storage bidding rules and reduced the price weight, involving the wind, light and storage industries.
5. Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council: Will study and introduce special measures to promote the integration of Fujian and Taiwan and relax market access.
6. The fifth "space meeting", Shenzhou 19 astronauts successfully entered the Chinese space station.
7. BYD surpassed Tesla in quarterly revenue for the first time.

Account status: continue to stay put, low position. We are ready for 50% fluctuations in BTC weekly, that is, it is very likely that we will see BTC starting with 3, ETH starting with 10, BNB starting with 3, and SOL below 100 within the year, so wait and see.

$btc $eth $sol

Don’t enter and exit the market too frequently

Today’s top picks
Gold opened lower on Monday
Israel launched a military strike against Iran over the weekend. Sources said Iran informed Israel through a third party that it would not respond
US media: Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is seriously ill
Israel’s Mossad director led a team to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza, but Israeli media revealed that he had no relevant authorization
The final results of the Japanese House of Representatives election are out, and the ruling coalition did not win a majority of seats
President Xi Jinping: Strengthen the construction of inclusive, basic and bottom-line livelihood
Deputy Minister of Finance: China is confident of achieving an annual economic growth of about 5% Growth target
State Council: We must focus on striving to achieve the annual economic and social development goals and continue to implement a package of incremental policies
In the third quarter of this year, Central Huijin increased its holdings of multiple broad-based ETFs
Alibaba agreed to pay 3 billion yuan to settle the class action lawsuit of US shareholders, but denied any allegations

Market review

Spot gold once lost the 2720 mark during the session, but rebounded sharply before the US market, and once rose to an intraday high of US$2747.69, up more than US$30 from the intraday low, and finally closed up 0.41% at US$2746.92/ounce. Spot silver rose before the US market, but then gave up all the gains during the day, and finally closed down 0.01% at US$33.66/ounce. On Monday, spot gold opened with a gap down of US$15.
The three major US stock indices rose and fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.61%, the S&P 500 down 0.03%, and the Nasdaq up 0.56%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 1.38%. Western Digital (WDC.O) rose 4.72%, and its first quarter turned a profit. Tesla (TSLA.O) closed up 3.34% after rising 22% last Thursday. Cryptocurrency concept stocks fell across the board, with Riot Blockchain (RIOT.O) down 5.40%, Marathon Digital (MARA.O) down 6.37%, and Coinbase (COIN.O) down 1.97%. Earlier reports said that the U.S. federal government is investigating whether cryptocurrency company Tether may have violated sanctions and anti-money laundering regulations.

Account status: We are still reducing our positions today. The uncertain U.S. economy and overvalued U.S. stocks may bring down the cryptocurrency market at any time. Although BTC SOL is still in a long position, the altcoins led by ETH have entered the bear market very early, lacking the last drop to form a C wave kill.

#BinanceBlockchainWeek #比特币布林带收窄至低水平 $sol $bnb $btc

Accept mistakes and correct them in time.

Today's Highlights:
The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to a new low since the week of September 28
The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase operations approached a drop below $200 billion
Parties involved in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations have gathered in Doha, Qatar, with Hamas representatives heading to Cairo to discuss the agreement
ECB board member Schnabel: At this stage, we don’t need to discuss a 50 basis point rate cut
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt confirms adjustments to the UK's fiscal rules
National Development and Reform Commission: Further opening of national major scientific research infrastructure to private enterprises
Shenzhen Municipal Financial Office: Striving to form a trillion-yuan government investment fund group
Several banks in Guangzhou received requests: Mortgage and commercial loan rates must not be lower than the provident fund loan rate

Market Review:

On Thursday, the U.S. dollar index retraced, dropping to around 104, ultimately closing down 0.38% at 104.02. U.S. Treasury yields also fell, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.2170%; the more policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.0920%.
Spot gold briefly rose over 1%, but was blocked near the 2740 mark and retraced, ultimately closing up 0.75% at $2735.77 per ounce. Spot silver plunged significantly during the U.S. trading session, erasing all intraday gains and turning negative, ultimately closing down 0.07% at $33.66 per ounce.
Reports suggest that the U.S. and Israel will attempt to restart ceasefire talks regarding Gaza, with crude oil dropping nearly 1%. WTI crude oil briefly rose to an intraday high of $72.20 before erasing all gains and turning negative, ultimately closing down 0.99% at $70.22 per barrel; Brent crude closed down 0.91% at $74.22 per barrel.
The U.S. stock market saw the Dow Jones closing down 0.33%, the S&P 500 index up 0.21%, and the Nasdaq up 0.76%. Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 21.9%, marking the best single-day gain since May 2013, adding approximately $150 billion in market value. IBM (IBM.N) fell over 6%, while NVIDIA (NVDA.O) rose 0.6%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.8%, Alibaba (BABA.N) fell 1.7%, Zai Lab (ZLAB.O) rose 14%, and Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) fell 6%.

Account Situation: Near the close on Friday, there was a sharp drop in altcoins, leading to a liquidation of $400 million. We established around 40% of positions, choosing to patiently wait for the next wave of decline or increase.

Risk Warning: Leverage is not the devil; it is merely a tool to improve capital utilization. Leverage itself carries no risk; the real risk comes from human nature.
$btc $eth $sol

Risks exist within the market itself.

2024.10.24

On Wednesday, due to a series of positive economic data prompting the market to lower expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in terms of magnitude and speed, the US dollar index continued to rise, marking its 16th increase in 18 trading days, ultimately closing up 0.33% at 104.41. US Treasury yields also soared, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.2430%; the 2-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.0950%.
After refreshing its historical high to above $2750, spot gold began to correct during the European session and accelerated its decline during the US session, briefly falling below the $2710 mark, ultimately closing down 1.21% at $2715.43 per ounce. Spot silver closed down 3.31% at $33.69 per ounce.
Despite a rebound in refining activities, crude oil prices fell due to US crude inventory increases exceeding expectations, with WTI crude oil briefly dropping to around the $70 mark before recovering some ground, ultimately closing down 0.52% at $70.89 per barrel; Brent crude closed down 0.41% at $74.90 per barrel.
The US stock market saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.96%, the S&P 500 index down 0.92%, and the Nasdaq down 1.6%. The Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) rose over 4% against the trend, while Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Apple (AAPL.O) both fell over 2%. Due to exceeding expectations in Q3 net profit and gross margin, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose over 10% in after-hours trading, while Pinduoduo (PDD.O) fell nearly 5%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.2%, with Alibaba (BABA.N) down 2.4%, Li Auto (LI.O) up 3.7%, and New Oriental (EDU.N) down over 8%.
Major European stock indices closed down across the board, with Germany's DAX30 index down 0.23%; the UK's FTSE 100 index down 0.58%; and the European Stoxx 50 index down 0.34%.

Account status: Currently building positions gradually, waiting for significant volatility to arrive.

Risk warning: Leverage is not the devil; it is simply a tool to enhance capital utilization. Leverage itself carries no risk; the real risk comes from human nature.
$btc $eth $sol

Discipline is the insurance policy of trading.

2024.10.21

Today's Highlights

Gold will refresh its historical high to $2722/ounce
Israeli Energy Minister: All options to address Iran are on the table, including strikes on nuclear facilities
Sources: Some ECB officials want to abandon the commitment to maintain tight policies
Sources: BOJ officials believe there is no need to rush to raise interest rates this month
Musk announces he will randomly distribute $1 million daily to U.S. voters until election day
National Bureau of Statistics: GDP growth in the third quarter is 4.6%, with significant improvement in several economic indicators in September
The central bank has officially launched a swap convenience operation for securities, funds, and insurance companies; currently, 20 companies are approved to participate, with the first batch of application quotas exceeding 200 billion yuan
Pan Gongsheng: Will consider further reducing the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25-0.5 percentage points at the right time; expects the LPR on the 21st to also decline by 0.2-0.25 percentage points
The first batch of repurchase special loans has landed, with 23 A-share listed companies receiving bank loan commitment letters
Hongfang Quantitative announces it will gradually reduce the investment position in all hedging products to 0

Account Status: Currently, positions are gradually increasing, and there may be significant market movements before and after the election; please be patient. Current yield is close to 300%, total capital is 290,000, position is 0.24.

Account Status: Currently building positions gradually, waiting for a major volatility to arrive.

Risk Warning: Leverage is not the devil, it is just a tool to increase capital efficiency. Leverage itself carries no risk; the real risk comes from human nature.

$btc $eth $bnb

Sell ​​uncertainty.

2024.10.16

Today's Picks
Federal Reserve Daly: Monetary policy remains restrictive
Markets bet more on a sharp 50 basis point rate cut by the Bank of Canada
Lebanon receives assurances from the United States that Israel will reduce attacks
North Korea blows up some inter-Korean routes
State Council Information Office to hold a real estate press conference on October 17
Financial Supervision Administration, National Development and Reform Commission: Establish a coordination mechanism to support financing of small and micro enterprises
Ministry of Finance and other three departments: All water resource tax revenue belongs to local governments
Shenzhen Stock Exchange strengthens programmatic trading supervision

Account status: Currently slowly building positions, waiting for the arrival of large fluctuations.

Risk warning: Leverage is not a devil, but a tool to improve capital utilization. Leverage itself has no risk, the real risk comes from human nature.

$btc $eth $bnb

Be a friend of time and an opponent of emotions.

2024.10.11

US CPI fell for six consecutive days but exceeded expectations across the board
The Wall Street Journal: Bostic is open to not cutting interest rates in November
Israel's security cabinet will hold a meeting to decide how to respond to Iran's attack
If Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran may change its nuclear principles
Li Qiang met with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba
The interest rate of existing mortgage loans was uniformly reduced to LPR minus 30 basis points
Shanghai Stock Exchange held a securities dealer symposium again to promote the implementation of merger and reorganization policies
Hangzhou will issue 430 million consumer coupons

Account: All positions were cleared a few days ago, and positions were slowly built yesterday. It is now expected that the cryptocurrency sector will be dominated by volatile markets. BTC dealers use contracts to wash retail investors' chips while holding spot goods, and the current trend is unclear.

Risk warning: Leverage is not a devil, but a tool to improve capital utilization. Leverage itself has no risk, and the real risk comes from human nature.

44298060216 54896487529 74962261195 99667120152 #6万保卫战 7453747849842808391729#美国9月PPI年率高于预期 777650 90739

Risk is the wave, principle is the rudder.

2024.10.8

Fed Musallem: Further rate cuts are likely

Source: Israel will retaliate against Iran soon

It is reported that Iran has prepared 10 plans to deal with potential Israeli attacks

U.S. State Department: Israel is expected to strike Hezbollah in a manner consistent with international humanitarian law

The number of open contracts of FTSE China A50 futures hit a record high

The number of accounts opened by major brokerages during the National Day holiday hit a record high

Bairen Medical fired the first shot of special loan increase

On the eve of the opening of A-shares, many on-site funds "rose to suspension"

Account: All positions were cleared today, and positions were slowly built. It is expected that the cryptocurrency sector will be dominated by volatile market conditions.

Risk warning: Leverage is not a devil, but a tool to improve the utilization rate of funds. Leverage itself has no risk, and the real risk comes from human nature.

2024.10.06

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose modestly last week
Biden said he was discussing Israel's retaliation against Iranian oil facilities
U.S. dock workers agreed to suspend the strike
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and four others were reported for political funding issues
The Governor of the Bank of England hinted at accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts
Morgan Stanley and HSBC are both bullish on the Chinese stock market
The listing and transaction volumes of second-hand houses in Shenzhen have risen
During the National Day holiday, there was a strong demand for opening bank and insurance accounts in Hong Kong
Funds from other parts of Asia flowed back to the Chinese stock market

Account status: The current rate of return is close to 300%. Coin has opened real-time data to facilitate better viewing of account status. Subscriptions are not enabled for the time being. You can search for kingfisher to view the positions of other accounts.

Risk warning: Leverage is not a devil, but a tool to improve the utilization rate of funds. Leverage itself has no risk, and the real risk comes from human nature.

#非农人数大幅升温 #HBO纪录片或揭示中本聪身份 #灰度拟推出AAVE信托基金 #美SEC对Ripple案裁决提出上诉 #9月小非农数据高于预期 $BTC $ETH $SOL

2024.10.3

Today's Featured

US September ADP employment rebounded beyond expectations

Biden: Will impose some sanctions on Iran, does not support attacking Iran's nuclear facilities
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: It is not suitable for further interest rate hikes at this time
OPEC refutes reports that oil prices may fall to $50
OPEC statement: The three countries confirmed compliance with the production cut compensation plan
12306 reiterated that it did not authorize third-party platforms to sell tickets
The traffic volume of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel reached a new high on the first day of the National Day holiday

Account status: Account funds have withdrawn by about 10%. As the scale of the Iran-Israel conflict grows, market uncertainty increases. Coin has opened real-time data to facilitate better viewing of account status. Subscriptions are not enabled for the time being. You can search for kingfisher to view the positions of other accounts.

Risk warning: Leverage is not a devil, but a tool to improve the utilization rate of funds. Leverage itself has no risk, and the real risk comes from human nature.

#加密市场急跌 #伊朗导弹袭击以色列 #大A香还是大饼香 #美国8月核心PCE创4月以来新高 #非农就业数据即将公布 $btc $eth $bnb

2024.9.30:

The U.S. core PCE monthly rate in August hit a new low since May
Fed official: Weak labor market may accelerate interest rate cuts
Hezbollah senior officials were almost "annihilated" in Israel's bombing
Shigeru Ishiba was elected as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan
The central bank and the Financial Supervision Bureau issued four financial support policies for real estate
The Shanghai Stock Exchange transaction gateway flow fee is temporarily exempted
Shanghai Stock Exchange test: The bidding system received 270 million orders, which is twice the historical peak
ICBC's bank-securities transfer net value index hit a three-and-a-half-year high

Account status: Funds have fallen from highs, actively build positions, remain patient, and wait for a pullback before adding 1-2 times leverage.

Risk warning: Leverage is not a devil, it is just a tool to improve the utilization rate of funds. Leverage itself has no risk, the real risk comes from human nature.

#HMSTR开盘 #美联储11月降息预期升温 #美联储11月降息预期升温 #美国二季度核心PCE符合预期 #美联储宣布降息50个基点 eth btc bnb

2024.9.27:

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to a 4-month low
Foreign media reported that the Israeli Prime Minister rejected the proposal of a 21-day ceasefire with Lebanon
It is reported that OPEC+ will continue to promote the production increase plan in December
Yellen: It is conceivable to intervene in the US dollar in extreme cases
The central government held a major meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work
The central bank: It is necessary to speed up the release of financial incremental policy measures
The first "Zhong" long-term capital market entry document was released
Regulators strengthen the supervision of brokerage "stock recommendation software"

Account status: The current rate of return is 300%. Coin has opened real-time data to facilitate better viewing of account status. Subscriptions are not opened for the time being. You can search for kingfisher to view the positions of other accounts.

Risk warning: Leverage is not a devil, but a tool to improve the utilization rate of funds. Leverage itself has no risk, and the real risk comes from human nature.

$btc $eth $bnb #HMSTR开盘 #谷歌云与Solana合作 #比特币盈利供应能否推动价格上涨？ #PayPal将允许美国商家交易加密货币 #金价屡创新高

2024.9.26:

On Wednesday, as Powell spoke and a series of important economic data arrived, the US dollar index rebounded and eventually closed up 0.573% at 100.93. U.S. Treasury yields collectively rebounded, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 3.788%; the two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.557%.
Spot gold fluctuated at a high level, hitting the $2,670 mark during the session to set a new record high, then turned down for a while, and finally closed close to $2,657.16/ounce. Spot silver pulled back to below the $32 mark and eventually closed down 0.89% at $31.81/ounce.
The prospect of Libya's supply recovery and demand concerns still exist, leading to a weakening of international crude oil, but the unexpected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and the intensification of tensions in the Middle East still limited the decline in oil prices. WTI crude oil finally closed down 2.53% at $69.6 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.96% at $73.06 per barrel.
The three major U.S. stock indexes fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.7%, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq basically flat. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 2%, Intel (INTC.O) rose 3%, and Trump Media Technology Group (DJT.O) rose 10%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 2.8%, Alibaba (BABA.N) fell 1.8%, and iQiyi (IQ.O) fell nearly 5%.
The main European stock indices fell collectively, with the German DAX30 index closing down 0.41%; the British FTSE 100 index closed down 0.17%; and the European Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.48%.

Account status: Current yield rate is 300%. Coin has opened real-time data to facilitate better viewing of account status. Subscriptions are not open for the time being. You can view the positions of other accounts by searching for kingfisher.

Risk warning: Leverage is not a devil, but a tool to improve capital utilization. Leverage itself has no risk, and the real risk comes from human nature.

#新币挖矿已上线HMSTR #HMSTR今日上线，猜猜上线价格是多少？ #本周美国将公布PCE、GDP数据 #加密市场反弹 #币安上线CATI $BTC $ETH $BNB

2024.9.22:

The Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points, a bold start to the interest rate cut cycle
On September 19, the Fed started a rate cut cycle, lowering the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, the first rate cut since March 2020. Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal who is known as the "Federal Reserve's mouthpiece," said that the Fed's 50BP rate cut marked a bold start to the rate cut. According to statistics, the last time the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points was in March 2020, after which Bitcoin's maximum increase was more than 10 times.

The median of the Fed's dot plot: a cumulative interest rate cut of 100 basis points in 2024
On September 19, the Fed's dot plot showed that among the 19 officials, 2 officials believed that interest rates should not be cut further in 2024, 7 officials believed that interest rates should be cut by another 25 basis points in 2024, 9 officials believed that interest rates should be cut by another 50 basis points in 2024, and 7 officials believed that interest rates should be cut by another 75 basis points in 2024.

Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley predict the Fed's future interest rate cut path
On September 19, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and other Wall Street's largest brokerages, predicted the Fed's future interest rate cut path. Bank of America expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in the fourth quarter and another 125 basis points in 2025. Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at its November and December meetings this year. Citigroup maintained its forecast for the Fed to cut rates this year at 125 basis points, but now expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, compared with the previous forecast of 50 basis points. In addition, the bank expects more 25 basis point cuts in 2025, pushing the terminal rate to a range of 3%-3.25%. Other brokerages such as Macquarie and Deutsche Bank have retained their expectations for two more 25 basis point cuts from the Fed this year. Economist Seth Carpenter and strategist Matthew Hornbach of the Morgan Stanley team said that a series of conventional rate cuts (25 basis points) may be chosen by mid-2025, two cuts this year and four cuts in the first half of next year.

$BTC $ETH 11956716271 #DODO助力Meme发行 #币安上线CATI #加密市场反弹 #TerraformLabs破产清算 490008 04466

Be patient.

2024.9.21:

The Fed kicked off the big rate cut cycle with a 50 basis point rate cut and acknowledged that we have to get closer to its neutral rate of around 3%. The balance of risk has already begun to tilt towards the deteriorating labor market. So the Fed wants to start this process and start it with a bang.

What the Fed is sending: The Fed is normalizing policy and basically admitting that inflation has come a long way. They believe that inflation will get closer and closer to 2%. The Fed has a dual mandate, it has to worry about the labor market, and we have seen the deterioration of the labor market. In the latest "Summary of Economic Projections" released, the unemployment rate is about 4.4%, and it will remain at the same level by next year. So the Fed acknowledges that the labor market has cooled, but does not want the labor market to deteriorate.

Outlook for the US economy: The Fed has done a lot of work to deal with inflation shocks and their reversals. The Fed wants a soft landing of the economy while the economy continues to grow. The current GDPNow model of the Atlanta Fed is about 3%, slightly above potential growth. The Fed wants the labor market to continue to grow, not to get weaker. So this is very good news. As I said, the Fed acknowledges that its long-term interest rate is close to 3%. And 5.5% is too tight for an economy that is close to potential in terms of employment, inflation, and growth.

Keep data dependence intact: The Fed remains in data dependence mode. The market's bias is stronger, with the target of another 50 basis point rate cut this year already set in the Summary of Economic Projections. We have to consider each meeting and the data collected. If we see further deterioration in the labor market, we may see the Fed cut interest rates directly by 50 basis points at one meeting. But if you think about it, what the Fed is going to do over the next year or so is to get interest rates closer to 3%, the neutral rate. The journey from 5.5% to 3% is about 10 cuts of 25 basis points each time. It will readjust at each meeting based on the full data received.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #DODO助力Meme发行 #币安上线CATI #BNBChain与Telegram集成 #加密市场反弹 #美联储宣布降息50个基点

Seasons change, opportunities are always there.

2024.9.20:

The United States no longer expects Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire agreement before the end of Biden's term
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week hit a new low since the week of May 18, 2024
The majority leader of the U.S. Senate: A temporary bill will be submitted to avoid a partial government shutdown
The Bank of England will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 5.00% unchanged
The State Council: We must adhere to the principle of "voluntary and flexible" to implement the delayed retirement policy
The National Development and Reform Commission: Timely launch a batch of incremental policy measures that are highly operational, effective, and accessible to the masses and enterprises
The offshore RMB rose to 7.06 against the U.S. dollar

Account status: Coin has opened real-time data to facilitate better viewing of account status. Subscriptions are not enabled for the time being. You can search for kingfisher to view the positions of other accounts.

Risk warning: Leverage is not a devil, but a tool to improve capital utilization. Leverage itself has no risk, and the real risk comes from human nature.

$BTC 5696236714465118653895#DODO助力Meme发行 8060970828439574681050#特朗普首次使用BTC #BananaGun钱包被盗 423909139 90

Luck is based on preparation.

2024.9.19

The Fed started the interest rate cut cycle with a range of 50 basis points. The dot plot suggests that it will cut another 50 basis points this year and another 100 basis points next year
Powell: The interest rate cut can be fast, slow or suspended depending on the situation. I don’t see any signs in the economy that the possibility of recession is rising
The walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah in Lebanon exploded in many places. Iran said it would investigate the attack on its ambassador to Lebanon
Hezbollah in Lebanon claimed to have attacked Israeli military outposts
New home starts in the United States increased to the fastest rate since April
State Council: Study relevant measures to promote the development of venture capital and support qualified technology companies to go public at home and abroad
Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China has decided to take countermeasures against 9 US military companies
During the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2024, 107 million people traveled domestically, and the total travel expenses of domestic tourists were 51.047 billion yuan

Account status: Coin has opened real-time data to facilitate better viewing of account status. Subscriptions are not enabled for the time being. You can search for kingfisher to view the positions of your other accounts.

Risk warning: Leverage is not the devil, it is just a tool to improve the utilization rate of funds. Leverage itself has no risk, the real risk comes from human nature.

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