Trade what you see, not what you think.
Market Review
Last Friday, the US dollar index fluctuated and fell during the Asian and European sessions, but due to the better-than-expected US October retail sales data, the decline of the dollar index narrowed, ultimately closing down 0.18% at 106.67. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.4440%; the more sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.3310%.
As expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut further diminished, spot gold declined, briefly falling below the 2560 mark during trading, and ultimately closing down 0.06% at 2562.81 USD/ounce, marking the largest weekly drop in over three years. Spot silver ultimately closed down 0.66% at 30.25 USD/ounce.
With President-elect Trump promising to address the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, international oil prices weakened. WTI crude oil ultimately closed down 2.43% at 66.90 USD/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.95% at 71.00 USD/barrel.
US stocks closed down on Friday. The momentum for US stocks to rise after the election faded, with all three major indexes recording declines last week. The Dow Jones fell by 0.70% to 43444.99 points; the Nasdaq fell by 2.24% to 18680.12 points; the S&P 500 index fell by 1.32% to 5870.62 points. Among them, the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq both recorded the largest weekly drop since September, while the Dow Jones recorded the largest weekly drop since late October.
International News
1. Federal Reserve: Goolsbee: Will continue to consider interest rate cuts based on the September dot plot, should slow down as we approach neutral rates. Collins: Does not believe there is an urgent need for rate cuts but hopes to maintain economic health. Barkin: Since the Fed started cutting rates, demand data has shown stronger performance.
2. US October retail sales month-on-month growth recorded at 0.4%, with September's growth revised from 0.4% to 0.8%. Traders have reduced their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025, cutting the probability of a rate cut in December to about 50%.
3. The European Commission expects the Eurozone economic growth rates for 2024-2026 to be 0.8%, 1.3%, and 1.6%, with inflation rates of 2.4%, 2.1%, and 1.9%. ECB Vice President de Guindos: The ECB believes the inflation outlook is positive, but economic growth expectations are negative.
4. A Trump ally proposed to sell part of the Federal Reserve's gold to purchase 1 million bitcoins.
5. Netanyahu's private residence was attacked again, and the suspect has been arrested, with one reportedly being a senior officer in military reserves.
