June 17 - June 21 Macroeconomic Events Roadmap Recommended Reading: ★★★★
(Please save it yourself according to the situation)
Last week we experienced a data game in the job market, and this week it was a game of inflation and expectations of interest rate cuts. Although the weight of macroeconomic data next week will be relatively low, the key point is that next week will be a period of frequent speeches by Federal Reserve officials, especially after the update of the dot plot this week and Powell’s speech. Although there is only one opportunity for a rate cut in 2024, the market is still optimistic about two rate cuts. Next week, officials will speak, and everyone is waiting to see whether they can get more useful information for verification.
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June 17
20:30 US New York Fed Manufacturing Index for June, previous value -15.6, expected -13,
Data weight:★
The manufacturing index has always been an important index in the economic barometer. The index has been negative recently, proving that the manufacturing industry is in a contraction phase. Once the negative value decreases or returns to a positive value, the support of the manufacturing industry will have a positive effect on the economic outlook. If the index continues to decline, it will mean that the manufacturing industry is still in a contraction phase, with fewer orders and naturally higher costs, which will be passed on to inflation.
Although large-scale growth in the manufacturing industry will also bring inflationary pressure, this kind of inflation is often benign.
This single data has a low impact on the market.
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June 18
01:00 Harker, a voting member of the 2026 FOMC and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, delivered a speech on the economic outlook.
Data weight: ★★
Harker has always been a hawkish figure in the Federal Reserve. Whether his speech will continue to be hawkish or slightly moderate will have a certain impact on market judgment. How a hawkish figure moderates his attitude may be interpreted by the market as dovish, which will help boost market sentiment.

20:30 US May retail sales monthly rate, previous value 0.00% expected 0.30%,
Data weight: ★★
The index measures the U.S. retail industry in May. The weight of a single data point is not high, but this data can be used to speculate and analyze the PCE situation in May. Currently, the index is expected to rise and the monthly retail rate will increase. If the data meets expectations, it will inevitably bring certain pressure to the PCE at the end of the month.

21:15 U.S. May industrial output monthly rate: previous value 0.00% expected 0.20%,
Weight:★
This data is one of the parameters used to measure short-term economic trends. It has a low weight and can be paid attention to, but it is difficult to have an impact on the risk market.


22:00 Barkin, a voting member of the U.S. FOMC in 2024 and President of the Richmond Fed, delivers a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.
Data weight: ★★
Barkin is usually defined as a moderate hawk. Hawkish representatives pay attention to the risks of overheating economy and inflation. Many recent data from the United States have proved that the US economy continues to remain strong and may even grow further. According to the hawkish theory, although interest rate hikes may not be likely, there may be calls for continued high interest rates.
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June 19
01:00
U.S. 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan participated in a Q&A session.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler delivered a speech.


Data weight: ★★
Logan, like Barkin, is a moderate hawk. If data shows that the US economy continues to rebound strongly, this may lead Logan to speak relatively hawkishly.
Although Kugler is a hawkish figure, he is more inclined to propose more loose policies during the economic recovery phase. However, given the current economic situation in the United States, it is difficult to say what his attitude is.

04:30 U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 14 (10,000 barrels) Previous value -242.8 Involving June data, for record only.
22:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index in June, involving June data, the previous value is expected to be 45, for record only.
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June 20
19:00 UK central bank interest rate decision for June 20, previous value 5.25%, expected 5.25%,
Data weight: ★★★
Although the market expects that there will be no interest rate cuts in the short term, we still need to pay close attention to any unexpected events in the data. As the third largest currency in the dollar basket, if the UK also starts to cut interest rates, it will inevitably continue to push up the dollar.
I said this when the euro rate cut last week. Many people think that the euro rate cut will force the United States to talk about a rate cut. This is a bit too optimistic. I said at the time that we should be wary of the outflow of euro assets when the euro rate cuts. Currently, the euro has been depreciating after the rate cut.


20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 15 (10,000 people) Previous value: 24.2,
Data weight: ★★
The number of initial unemployment claims reflects the current situation of the U.S. job market. In the data released last week, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. increased in the first week of June. If the data continues to increase this week, it will lead the market to believe that the U.S. job market continues to deteriorate. Combined with the unemployment rate of 4% in May, if the unemployment rate continues to rise in June, it may boost expectations of interest rate cuts.

At the same time, the US real estate data and the Philadelphia manufacturing index were released. You can just make a note of them, but you don’t need to pay attention to them.

23:00 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory (10,000 barrels) for the week ending June 14 is currently 3.73 million barrels. This data shows the supply and demand situation of domestic crude oil in the United States. The data for June is only recorded here and the impact can be ignored.
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June 21,
04:00 Barkin, a voting member of the U.S. FOMC in 2024 and President of the Richmond Fed, delivers a speech on the economic outlook.
Data weight: ★★
This is Barkin's second speech this week. The first was on Tuesday, when he spoke about the U.S. economy and monetary policy, while this time on Friday he spoke about the U.S. economic outlook. Considering Barkin's previous speaking style, once a moderate hawk turns even more moderate, he might be considered a dove. However, this is under the premise of slowing economic growth. If the economy is still overheated, Barkin's speech may not be too moderate.


21:45
U.S. June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Value
U.S. June S&P Global Services PMI Preliminary Value
Data weight: ★★
The S&P Global Index will conduct an assessment of the US service and manufacturing industries in June. The data is preliminary and forward-looking. If the data is overheated, it proves that the US economy is strong, which is not conducive to inflation control, and vice versa.
The final value of this data will be released at the beginning of next month. The data is used to measure the economic data in June. It is temporarily recorded here and will also allow the market to make a preliminary assessment of the economic and inflation situation in June.

22:00 U.S. May existing home sales total annualized (10,000 households), previous value 414, expected 410,
Data weight: ★★
This data measures the sales of finished homes in the United States. The current data is expected to decline. The sales of existing homes have decreased. Under the premise of high interest rates, the cost of buying a house has increased, causing more people to choose to rent, which will cause a short-term increase in rents. Regarding the poor control of inflation, Powell also mentioned in his speech this week that the rent issue is also one of the key factors of inflation.
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The above is the overall macroeconomic presentation for next week. It can be basically summarized that most of the macroeconomic data next week will be low-weight data, which will have little impact on the market in the short term. However, many small-weight data may trigger more speculation and expectations in the market. At the same time, next week will be accompanied by frequent speeches by Federal Reserve officials. It is not known whether these speeches will reveal sensitive trends about interest rates, but frequent speeches still need to be taken seriously.

Next week I will interpret these data one by one according to the situation.

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