Preview of macro data on July 5: US unemployment rate/non-farm employment in June Recommended reading: ★★★★
US unemployment rate in June, unemployment data of the employment market in June provided by the US Department of Labor.
Data weight ★★★★
Data content: previous value 4% expected 4%
Data time: July 5, 2024 20:30
Data impact:
The unemployment rate directly shows the hot and cold situation of the employment market, and at the same time predicts the US economy, and has a great impact on the currently expected monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.
The data is higher than expected and higher than the previous value, which is bad for the US economy and good for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts. It will rise, but the amplitude will not be too large, unless it is significantly higher than the previous period and expectations.
The data is in line with expectations and equal to the previous value, which is good for the US economy and good for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts. There is basically no fluctuation. The continuous unemployment of 4% cannot continue to promote the expectation of interest rate cuts.
The data is lower than expected and lower than the previous value, which is good for the US economy and bad for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts. It has fallen, and in the current state, it may lead to a large decline.
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US June seasonally adjusted non-agricultural employment (10,000 people), non-agricultural employment in June as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Data weight ★★★★
Data content: previous value 27.2, expected 19, unit 10,000 people,
Data time: July 5, 2024 20:30
Data impact:
Also reflects the situation of the employment market. Due to the data that contrasted with the unemployment rate last month, this month's non-agricultural employment data may be distorted.
Tonight's non-agricultural data may be distorted due to the abnormality of last month's non-agricultural data. Once the data falls sharply, it is not possible to directly determine that the US employment market has cooled down rapidly. In fact, it can be interpreted as the removal of part-time or illegal immigrant labor data in market data statistics.
Focus on the unemployment rate.
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Personally, I expect that the unemployment rate is likely to be 4% with a small probability of 4.1%. The non-agricultural data should be between 18 and 19. It is expected that the non-agricultural data will decrease, but it should not be so large, although the non-agricultural data last month is indeed abnormal.
I wrote this in a hurry, so it's a bit sloppy.
#美国失业率 #美国非农数据 $BTC
