Macroeconomic big data minutes from July 8th to July 12th - CPI inflation week!
Recommended reading: ★★★★
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The week of July 8 is the week with the highest probability of the Ethereum ETF being approved, so the final result of the Ethereum ETF may be announced at any time between July 8 and July 12. The current probability of approval is basically 99%, but there are still some opinions that the final decision will be postponed to the week of July 15. (The expectation of the approval of the ETF has been consumed for two consecutive weeks. If the time is delayed for a long time, the popularity of the ETF will gradually decline.)
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July 8:
US New York Fed 1-year inflation forecast in June,
The data is generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York based on the results of the consumer expectations survey, which provides a forward-looking assessment of the inflation level of the US economy.
Data weight: ★★★
Data content: Previous value 3.17%
Data time: 23:00 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
As a survey report of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, this data will make a forward-looking assessment of US inflation in June. The expected value has not been announced yet. The focus of this data is whether the published value is higher or lower than the previous value. If it is lower than the previous value, it proves that inflation is steadily decreasing, which is good for US economic expectations and for the increase in inflation expectations in risk markets. If the output exceeds the previous value, it means that future inflation expectations are too high, which will have the opposite reaction. However, the focus this week is on Thursday's CPI inflation data.
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July 9:
U.S. NFIB Small Business Confidence Index in June,
The data is provided by the National Federation of Independent Business and is one of the important indicators reflecting the health of small businesses in the United States. Small businesses in the United States account for an important share of the U.S. GDP and labor market share.
Data weight: ★★★
Data content: previous value 90.5, expected 90.2,
Data time: 18:00 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
This data is higher or lower than the previous value, which directly shows the health of small businesses in the United States, and has a certain impact on the US economy and future GDP. It should be noted that the index is currently at a lower level since June 2021, indicating that small businesses in the United States have been in a downturn due to various factors. If the data continues to deteriorate, it means that the growth of the US economy or US GDP in small businesses is less likely.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.
Powell’s speech on monetary policy in the first half of the year.
Data weight: ★★★★
Data content: will be published in real time.
Data time: 22:00 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
Although Powell's speech last week released dovish information overall, it did not have a significant effect on boosting the market. If Powell continues to be so "handsome" in his speech this week, the impact of this data will be basically zero. Of course, if Powell uses sensitive words that have a direct impact on monetary policy in his speech, it may give the market more possibilities for interpreting the future.
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July 10:
U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 5 (10,000 barrels)
This data updates the domestic crude oil inventory data in the United States and has a certain impact on the short-term energy market prices in the United States.
This data has a weak direct impact on the risk market, but it can be used to calculate inflation data, so it is kept as a record for now.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
The same as Tuesday, except that the scene was changed compared to Tuesday to give an overall speech on monetary policy in the first half of 2024.
Data impact: ★★★
Data content: To be announced
Data time: 22:00 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
As with Tuesday, it will remain to be seen whether Powell’s speech will reveal key words that will have an impact on expectations for rate cuts this year. However, the weight of this speech will be slightly lower than that of Tuesday’s speech.
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July 11:
US 10-year Treasury auction until July 10 - winning rate
US 10-year Treasury auction until July 10 - bid multiples
The data shows the current sales of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds, thereby judging the market's expectations for the U.S. economy. The expected performance will be directly reflected in the sales and prices of the bonds.
Data weight:★
Data content: The previous value of the winning bid rate was 4.44%, and the previous value of the winning bid multiple was 2.67
Data time: 01:00 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
The US 10-year Treasury bond is an important sentiment indicator for the risk market. If the 10-year Treasury bond yield is too high, it will affect the sentiment of the risk investment market. Of course, the impact is not direct, but linear.
The winning rate of 10-year Treasury bonds can reflect investors' views on the US economic and inflation conditions in the next 10 years.
The winning multiple of 10-year Treasury bonds reflects the sales of long-term U.S. bonds and also reflects investors' risk preferences and willingness.
This data can be followed based on personal interest.
U.S. June unadjusted CPI annual rate
U.S. June seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate
Data weight: ★★★★
Data content: Annual rate (previous value 3.3%, expected 3.1%) Monthly rate (previous value 0.00%, expected 0.1%)
Data time: 20:30 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
The data includes the unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate, monthly rate and the seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate and monthly rate. Seasonally adjusted and unseasonally adjusted are the statistical results of whether seasonal factors are excluded. The annual rate is the same period last year, and the monthly rate is the same period last year.
The CPI (Consumer Price Index) data collection is based on the statistics of urban consumers' consumption of a basket of goods and services. The data can be used to interpret the current inflation situation in the United States. However, the data has more limitations than the PCE data, especially the unadjusted data will be affected by seasonal changes. Therefore, the data is only used as a reference for the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Reserve attaches more importance to the situation reflected by the PCE data.
Moreover, Powell has already made certain expectations for inflation in his speech on July 2, so unless there is a significant increase or decrease in short-term inflation, it will be difficult to continue to provide effective impetus for expectations of interest rate cuts.
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July 12:
The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July
One-year inflation rate forecast for July
The data was obtained by the University of Michigan Research Institute using survey data from 500-600 adults. The University of Michigan data is one of the more reliable data for the Federal Reserve or Powell. At the same time, the respondents were also surveyed about their expectations for inflation in the United States in the next year.
Data weight: ★★★
Data content: Confidence index previous value 68.2 expected 68.2 inflation (previous value 3% expected 3%)
Data time: 22:00 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
Compared with the New York Fed's one-year inflation forecast released on Monday, this data will be more professional in terms of expectations for future inflation, but it does not rule out the possibility of active target orientation.
The index can also better judge consumers' future expectations under the current economic environment. The rise of the index indicates that consumer confidence has increased and expectations for the future economy have improved, but more consumption willingness will also bring more inflationary pressure.
However, this data is the expected value for the July inflation data, and the final value will be announced in July, so the impact on the June data will be relatively weak.
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In general, the main data of this week is US inflation, but to be honest, as time goes by, combined with Powell's recent speech, the positive impact of inflation on the expectation of interest rate cuts has become weaker and weaker. After all, the probability of interest rate cuts in September is not low. On the contrary, if inflation goes bad, the negative impact on the current crypto market may be greater. In short, good news may not lead to much increase, and bad news may lead to pessimistic decline.
On the surface, the overall data this week is the inflation data for June, but I think the most important thing is Powell’s speech, because the positive inflation data does not seem to bring more momentum to the crypto market, but if Powell suddenly releases a clear signal of a rate cut, it may boost the entire risk market.
For the crypto market next week, it depends on how much momentum the positive data can bring to break through the rebound resistance. If the momentum is insufficient, it will only bring a short-term rebound. Everyone needs to be vigilant, especially when looking at the Asian market situation over the weekend and early Monday morning.
#美国6月CPI数据 #BTC走勢分析 $BTC