July 5th may be another memorable day for the crypto market!
Sorry, I had something to do today and only slept for a few hours before going out. I have just returned to my residence and started sorting out the data.
The overall speed and smoothness of the market's decline today were unexpected. It cannot be called a black swan, but the smoothness of this continuous decline is already somewhat similar to a small black swan.
At present, the dense support at 58,000 and the support below have all failed, and the price has been falling. I know that everyone is pessimistic and frustrated. I also know that those who shorted have probably made a lot of money again. I would like to give you some encouragement here, and then congratulate those who made a lot of money.
There are basically many different opinions about the reasons for the current decline, but many pieces of information have not been confirmed and it seems that they cannot be 100% confirmed. Among them are the Rabbit Selling Party, German selling, Mentougou Shanghai selling, etc. The news basically comes from the selling pressure brought by selling, and the trend is also the same.
In fact, these actions are basically scattered and average-volume shipments. It’s just that the liquidity of the market has been too low recently, and the selling pressure near the key support has brought about a chain of pessimistic selling sentiment in the market after breaking the support.
Here is a piece of mixed news. On June 26, Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief foreign exchange strategist at Goldman Sachs, warned on Twitter that liquidity in the U.S. bond market with a term of more than one year has deteriorated extremely. The degree of deterioration, judging from the U.S. bond stress test chart, is higher than in March 2020, and risk inflection points are also higher and more frequent.
The last time the liquidity of the US bond market decreased and worsened, it led to four consecutive US stock market circuit breakers, and the last time the Fed's balance sheet was only about 4 trillion. At present, the Fed's balance sheet is about 7 trillion US dollars, and the liquidity of US long-term bonds is decreasing, while the risks and pressures are also increasing, but this is not necessarily bad news.
On the worst-case scenario, a high balance sheet plus high-risk bond markets will indeed make the rising U.S. stock market more risky, and there will be risk points with a greater probability of appearing in the financial market. However, the mainstream media in the United States has been keeping silent about the liquidity of the bond market, and Americans themselves are not fools.
On the bright side, since the United States knows the risk points of its financial market and bond market, once the November election is over, in addition to the start of interest rate cuts, the low liquidity of the bond market may stimulate the faster implementation of QE. Interest rate cuts are adjustments to monetary policy, but they do not directly bring liquidity to the market, but QE can bring better liquidity to the financial market.
Therefore, in the face of a decline, don’t be discouraged if you lose money, and don’t be overly happy if you make money by shorting. We may be facing a turning point this year, and the real spring may be coming, so you must endure the current biting cold wind. If you panic, it is better to do less.
#BTC走勢分析 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC
