Let us remind you that according to the trend reversal indicator on the monthly TF, May and June are peak months

Let us remind you that according to the trend reversal indicator on the monthly timeframe, May and June are peak months. Back in April and May, we wrote that the high delivered in these two months could very likely turn out to be a medium-term high until the fall. Opening the way to the altseason in the summer, if#BTCitself does not show an impulse collapse.

This indicator is based on Thomas DeMark's candlestick analysis method and is especially good on older time frames. BUT, as history shows, even on a monthly TF it can show a failure if we are talking about a bullrun. This already happened in November-December 2020. "God's candle" and flight in a bull run. This scenario should not be rejected by short supporters. Although, of course, if you compare the candles of November and December 2020 and May and June 2024, there are nuances. The first ones are from the “Santa Claus rally” period, the second ones are from “Sell in May and go away”. The first one is bullish, the second one has bearish shadows on top.

But here there is reason to remember the S2F (Stock-to-Flow) model from PlanB (1.9 million subscribers in X). Last week he pointed out that June is the first red dot on the chart: 

“Bitcoin's 200-week rolling average is $36,000 and rising.

Do you see the first red dot? What usually happens after the first red dot?”

The question is rhetorical - usually after the first point about a year of intensive growth in bullrun begins.

The PlanB model caused criticism in the last cycle. But only because he had high expectations. And many went long on strong overbought conditions, historical highs, and record profitability of long positions already opened in the market. “They flew in on highs,” and PlanB turned out to be to blame. 

Now PlanB intends to take the lower limit of the forecast from its model, but this is still a lot - more than $100,000 per BTC in 2024 and more than $300,000 in 2025.

Therefore, even in the presence of short signals, we do not change our yesterday’s assessment of the medium-term situation for BTC - it looks good for a short only for those who want to lose their deposit.