The media are already writing that the US Federal Reserve will not wait for inflation to reach 2% to lower the interest rate.#CNBCheadlined the news: "Powell signaled the Fed won't wait for inflation to fall to 2% before cutting rates."

Additional points from Powell's speech to what has already been said (the speech itself is over, so there will be no further updates):

- The initial inflation, driven by demand for goods, initially looked short-lived. The Fed overestimated the speed of economic recovery.

- The work done in 2020 in response to the pandemic will stand out well. As for inflation, there will be debate about the Fed's response to it.

- There is a path to lower inflation without the labor market problems that characterized past tightening cycles. It does not appear that there are significant problems or decline in the labor market.

- The “hard landing” scenario is not the most likely.

- Once the Fed has confidence that inflation will fall, it will be time to act. Need more macro data.

Powell also said that he would remain in office until May 2026. And did not say whether he would remain for another term.

Meanwhile, #CMEGroup's updated expectations for interest rate cuts at the meeting on September 18 look like this:

- 8.6% - there will be either a pause or a decrease of 0.25 percentage points (on July 11 it was 10.9%).

- 89.6% - there will be a decrease by either 0.25 percentage points or 0.5 percentage points (on July 11 it was 81.3%).

- 1.8% - there will be a decrease by either 0.5 percentage points or 0.75 percentage points (on July 11 it was 7.7%).