The University of Michigan inflation data in the US is also better than expected. However, the reaction to this data is not as cheerful as to the actual indices of personal consumption expenditures for November.
Nevertheless, the#BTCrate continues to grow, having recovered above the psychological 96,000$ and the volume level of $95,665. The price is not yet in a stable uptrend on the hourly TF, plus there has not even been a test of the breakout of the trend since December 17. But there is more positivity.
We are waiting for additional signals confirming the reversal. According to the metrics that have been written about in recent days. In the meantime, this is a rebound.
We are in a hurry to form a list of altcoins to buy. In order to be in time for the reversal signals on TOTAL2 and TOTAL3.

In the last 24 hours, there have been already 1.03 billion liquidations in the crypto market. Of these, bulls have faced liquidations totaling 871 million $. It’s already bloodier for bulls than on December 5. BUT it’s not bloodier than on December 9 (when there were 1.51 billion liquidations, of which longs were 1.38 billion $).
The map of potential liquidations for #BTC from #Coinglass over the past 7 days looks extremely striking. Even a sharp drop to 85,548 would currently lead to only 1.17 billion $ in long liquidations. However, a sharp rise to 113,380 would result in short liquidations of 9.59 billion $. In other words, there’s nothing to collect from the bottom.
The liquidity heat maps for BTC on Binance also look quite telling.

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The BTC course is already at a low of $95,700 and - with a new Strong Signal low on the hourly timeframe.
Not the best 'Dragon' we were waiting for, but the figure has not been broken yet. If it is not broken in the next 40 minutes, the candle could become a reversal, as was the case with a similar one earlier in the morning. It is critically important to approach the descending trend line from December 17 to the first reversal signals on the hourly timeframe (as happened with the last touch of the trend line) on the bounce. Then there will be high chances for a breakout and working out the figure.
The correction is much stronger than expected, although the low of December 9 has still not been updated. The 200 EMA of the four-hour timeframe is currently acting as support. However, the 50 EMA of the 12-hour timeframe has been broken. But there are still 3.5 hours until closing. Let’s remember, the candle has not closed below this moving average since October 9.
Overall, since it has pulled down so low - the best sign today would be to close the daily candle above the volume level of $98,433. That’s approximately where the 50 EMA of the 12-hour timeframe is now.
If the decline continues and the asset transitions into a stable downtrend on the 12-hour timeframe, breaking the 'Dragon' - this will open the way to the extreme base target around $88,000, with an intermediate target around $92,000. For now, the perspective on the 'Dragon' is strong - we are not expecting such a decline.
$BTC

Market expectations for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate in 2025 are now even more pessimistic than the Fed's own announcement.
According to #CMEGroup, expectations are for a pause in seven meetings and only one, on July 18, for a reduction of 0.25 percentage points.
Recall that the Fed forecasts only a reduction in the rate in 2025, totaling 0.5 percentage points. And another 0.5 percentage points in 2026.
Expectations for the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting on January 29:
- 93.6% - pause.
- 6.4% - reduction of 0.25 percentage points.
This will be the first month of the year, with plans to reduce a maximum of two times a year, and Powell has clearly indicated that inflation is more important than the labor market.

Liquidations in the crypto market over the last 24 hours - $673.9 million. Of these, longs - $587 million. The majority of liquidations for bulls occurred in the last hour - $290 million.
The liquidity heatmap for BTC on Binance shows that only the range 100,540-100,647$ remains at the bottom for the week and 99,312-100,332$ for the month.

The Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Powell, speaks following the meeting and the decision to lower the interest rate.
Key points: 
- We are focused on two goals – the labor market and inflation.
- Inflation is much closer to the 2% target, inflation expectations remain sound.
- Today we lowered the Fed's rate forecast, moving towards more moderate pace of reductions.
- We can be more cautious as we consider additional adjustments to the Fed's monetary policy.
- A too slow reduction in rates could unjustifiably weaken the US economy and the labor market.
- The labor market remains stable and has emerged from an overheated state.
- The labor market is not a source of inflationary pressure.
- Consumer spending is resilient and remains at previous levels, while investment in equipment has increased.
- Improved supply has supported high economic performance in the US.
- Economic activity is growing at a steady pace, the economy is strong.
The most important points are highlighted. Besides the words about slowing the pace of interest rate reductions, there is also a 'safeguard' – the words that it cannot be reduced too slowly either. This is a positive in Powell's rhetoric.

A cover letter has been published regarding the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate.
Key points:
- The Federal Reserve forecasts only a rate decrease in 2025, totaling 0.5 percentage points. And another 0.5 percentage points in 2026 (this estimate is a 'sponsor' of the intensified correction of BTC - already at -1.3%).
- Inflation has approached the target of 2%.
- The unemployment rate has risen but remains low.
- Since the beginning of 2024, labor market conditions have improved.
- Risks related to the Federal Reserve's dual mandate (inflation and labor market) are balanced.
- Economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace, but economic prospects are uncertain.
- Further monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve depends on incoming macroeconomic data.
Essentially everything, except the first point - nothing new. But the first point is very important and negative for risky asset markets. Such a forecast in the statement will make Powell's speech even more significant.