This bull market:

1. The growth is slow and does not show the money-making effect of the past bull market;

2. Poor liquidity. Most of the high-market-cap altcoins except BTC have not reached new highs.

3. Lack of traffic, social media attention is much lower than in previous bull markets;

How to judge whether this round of bull market is rising fast or slow? This is a technical issue. The momentum of price increase is not simply based on the speed of change, but on its sustainability.

For example, assuming that a bull market takes one year to complete, then if this bull market fluctuates at a low level in the first 11 months of this year, but rises by 300% in the last month, and then peaks and enters a bear market, would you call this a bull market?

Although the price rose very fast in the last month, this kind of market situation does not represent the continuous demand in the market. It can only be regarded as the main operation, which is more common in the market of small-cap altcoins. This kind of bull market has only one purpose: to increase shipments;

Therefore, for BTC, the bull market we need to see is a long-term process with long-term sustainability, continuous buying, and rising prices. This structure corresponds to the long-term strong demand, indicating that people are truly buying, holding, and holding for a long time.

The early stages of the bull market we are currently experiencing are far less dynamic than the previous two bull markets.

Although this does not mean that this round of bull market may have peaked, from the perspective of the overall structure of a bull market, the foundation of this round of bull market has not been laid well, and the demand is not sustained enough, which has led to the long-term fluctuation at the previous high position;

Is liquidity to blame?

Comparing the USDT market value during the last bull market, they are: the USDT market value at the previous high and the USDT market value before the current bull market is about to break the historical high;

It can be seen that before the last bull market completely broke through the 20,000 mark, the market value of USDT had increased by 18.7 billion US dollars compared to the market value level when the bull market peaked in 2017. To put it bluntly, when the price returned to the same position, USDT had 18.7 billion more than before;

This $18.7 billion in additional liquidity is the foundation laid in the early stages of the last bull market. Considering that the price of BTC is different from the current one, we also need to pay attention to the increase in the market value of USDT during this period. It can be seen that before the last bull market completely broke through the historical high, the market value of USDT had increased by 1,680%!

Then, looking at the current bull market, under the same conditions, USDT’s market value has increased to $38.5 billion, but the increase is only 52.16%. Note that although the total market value is indeed higher than the previous bull market, the price of BTC is completely different.

That is to say, because BTC’s previous historical highs are different, the liquidity required for a breakthrough must also be different; if the current bull market is to achieve the same breakthrough as the previous bull market, we need the market value of USDT to be 64.5 billion US dollars higher than the peak level of the previous bull market;

In other words, the additional $38.5 billion added to the current market is not enough, and the overall liquidity of this bull market is also insufficient compared to the previous bull market;

The focus of the follow-up is whether liquidity can continue to increase. In other words, if there are three more months of fluctuations in the future, but during these three months, the incremental liquidity brought by "stablecoin + ETF + Hong Kong ETF" gradually reaches a level of more than 20 billion, then we can smoothly break through the previous historical high and stay away from this disgusting range;

However, the current situation is not optimistic, because the increase of stablecoins has stagnated, and it is still unknown whether the net inflow of ETFs can continue to be sustained after a short-term surge in volume in the past week.

It can be seen that the growth of the total market value of stablecoins has obviously stagnated, and it is likely to start choosing a direction in the future. If the total market value remains sideways, it will be fine. The most worrying thing is that the market value of stablecoins will start to shrink and flow out, which will pose a great threat to this round of bull market;

Therefore, the most important thing to pay attention to at the moment is whether the market value of stablecoins can move in a new direction. If it moves upward, it must be due to some long-term positive macro data. Then, BTC will be able to officially break through the current range when additional liquidity is gradually sufficient.

If it goes down, it will inevitably lead to longer-term shocks and corrections. To put it bluntly, BTC is currently breaking through the levels too fast. It has come to the BOSS (historical high) and found that it cannot defeat it. It must recharge another 25 billion US dollars to enhance its combat power. BTC, unwilling to give up, chooses to fight monsters and level up at the door of the BOSS room until it recharges enough money and then launches the final challenge;

This round of bull market is indeed different from the previous bull markets. The previous period was too fast, so now we can only use time to exchange space. If we can maintain the current range long enough and the liquidity continues to increase, we will eventually be able to break through. If we accidentally fall below the range and the liquidity begins to shrink and outflow, then the bull market is likely to end early.

No new forces entering the market

For practitioners or traders in the cryptocurrency industry, it seems that BTC has been the focus of global attention in the past two years, but in fact, at least from a data perspective, the results are disappointing;

This is the number of video views of all BTC-related channels on YouTube in the past five years. You can clearly see that the highlight moment of BTC was the bull market in 2021, and in this round of bull market, neither the attention nor the popularity of the topic is as high as before!

A sad fact: when BTC broke through the all-time high of 69,000, the popularity on YouTube was not as high as when FTX crashed...

However, if we still compare it according to the previous way when the price broke through the historical high, the data is still much better than in the past. This shows that if the price of BTC can continue to be strong in the future and break through the 100,000 US dollar mark, these long-silent leeks will still come back!

From the perspective of social media, this round of bull market is not much different from previous bull markets. BTC has achieved the normalization of social media, especially in the current market that is gradually becoming more like the U.S. stock market. The attention of the majority of leeks is far less important than in past bull markets.

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