Dezi has been busy smashing the market these two days, but the market has not hit a new low. Instead, it has been slowly moving upward. Behind this trend is actually the influx of institutions, which can be directly seen from the holdings of Bitcoin ETF.

Currently, the 4-hour level is slowly repairing, but the two effective bottom supports have already told the market enough signals. Faced with this trend, we should strive to find high-quality copycats at the bottom. Don't be afraid of the trend. Once the signal appears, be bolder.

1. At present, some indicators show that Bitcoin’s decline is almost close to the bottom.

2. The selling signal has not yet appeared. It is suitable to hold the currency or continue to buy in small amounts. There is no need to panic sell.

Dezi only has so many coins in total. If the ETF takes effect, it can take over all of his coins in one day. At present, the main impact is the panic sentiment.

Using multiple indicators to see why I say that Bitcoin can be bought at the bottom

AHR 999 Index

This indicator implies the rate of return of short-term fixed investment in Bitcoin and the deviation of Bitcoin price from expected valuation.

When the AHR 999 index < 0.45, the indicator will suggest buying;

When the AHR 999 index is between 0.45-1.2, the indicator will recommend buying fixed investment;

When the AHR 999 index >1.2, the currency price is already relatively high and is not suitable for operation.

Currently, the AHR 999 index is around 0.82, which is at the recommended level for regular investment.

Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Indicator

The rainbow chart is a long-term valuation tool for Bitcoin that uses a logarithmic growth curve to predict the potential future price direction of Bitcoin. The warmer colors above show when the market may be overheated, which is a better selling point; the cooler colors indicate that the overall market sentiment is usually depressed, which is a better buying point.

There are 10 color bands in the chart. For example, today, BTC is at the ultra-low price of the blue color band "Special Sale", which is suitable for buying. According to the trend of this chart, even if it falls below 50,000 in the next month, it will not touch the purple color band, which is the range where the indicator believes that "encryption is over".

MVRV indicator

MVRV is a relative indicator, which is the ratio of the circulating market value (Market Cap, MV) to the realized market value (Realized Cap, RV), that is, the ratio of the total market value of BTC to the market value calculated from the last activity price of BTC, representing the profitability of BTC holders.

When MVRV exceeds 3.5, it usually means that the market has reached the top, because when MVRV is too high, the holders will make more profit and tend to sell. When MVRV is lower than 1, it usually means that the market has reached the bottom, most holders are at a loss, and the willingness to hold will be greater than the willingness to sell, that is, there are fewer sellers in the market, which will increase the probability of price increases.

The current MVRV indicator is 2.29, which is between the so-called market bottom and top. Hold on to it and don’t sell it all.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index

The Coinbase Premium Index measures the difference in Bitcoin prices between Coinbase and Binance. When Coinbase prices are higher than other major exchanges, it generally indicates higher demand for Bitcoin among U.S. investors.

Generally speaking, negative readings often occur at local bottoms in prices and foreshadow subsequent increases. The indicator recently fell to -0.19, indicating weak demand and increased selling pressure from US investors, partly due to ETF outflows and the government's sale of confiscated assets through Coinbase. However, such readings often foreshadow price bottoms, such as in November 2022, when BTC prices rose by more than 50% within a few months of bottoming out.

At present, the Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for most of the period from May to June this year, just like last August and September, when the Bitcoin market was also in a boring consolidation period. Judging from this, the probability of a bottoming out and rebound is relatively high.

Bitcoin spot net inflow/outflow

Despite BTC's sharp drop to nearly $54,000 on Monday, the total net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $294 million on July 8, the highest level in the past month.

The recent decline caused by the German government's massive sale of Bitcoin and Mentougou's large repayments may be due to retail investors selling. It is not ruled out that institutions/new investors may take the opportunity to pick up bargains and hold BTC through spot ETFs. Will this be a signal of a rebound?

Since June 19, the German government has been selling BTC to "dump the market" in the past 20 days or so. There are currently 22,846 BTC left to sell. If calculated at a price of 57,000, it is worth $1.3 billion.

In the extreme case of a one-time sell-off by the German government and Mentougou (assuming Mentougou sells 30%), BTC may fall 10.5% in the short term, but the market can eventually absorb the selling pressure. Moreover, the probability of a one-time sell-off is almost zero. From the sell-off to now, everyone can see that it is a phased sell-off and will be absorbed by the market.

In short, don't panic. If you have money, continue to hoard big cakes. If you don't have money, continue to lie flat. Long-term factors still depend on the Fed's policy, how and when to cut interest rates, so long-term players don't need to pay too much attention to short-term fluctuations.

Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together.