The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June will be released at 20:30 tonight (July 11). According to market expectations, the US CPI data for June is expected to drop to 3.1%, lower than 3.3% in May.
In addition, the year-on-year increase in the core CPI in June is expected to remain at 3.4%. These data indicate that inflationary pressure has eased, which may have an important impact on the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates in the second half of this year.
The probability of a rate cut in September increases
The CPI data comes on the heels of last week's labor report, which showed a cooling job market with fewer job openings and slower wage growth, suggesting inflationary pressures are easing.
If the upcoming CPI data continues this trend, it may become the last piece of the puzzle to confirm the US Federal Reserve's transition to an easing policy. Weak CPI data will further strengthen the Fed's tendency to cut interest rates at its September and December meetings.
The June CPI report will show "very good" data, laying the foundation for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September.
How does the market move?
The cryptocurrency market is particularly sensitive to U.S. CPI inflation data. Although the market is betting that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September, if the U.S. CPI data released tonight is higher than expected, it may suppress overall market sentiment and drag the sluggish market in recent weeks to continue to fall.
On the contrary, if it is in line with the forecast or better than expected, it may lead to a market rebound. Therefore, before the data is released tonight, everyone should be fully prepared to prevent losses in high-risk positions. Be sure not to open leverage and contracts, and be careful of long and short explosions
In addition to macroeconomic data, the market is also paying attention to a large number of S-1 applications for Ethereum ($ETH) spot ETFs. If the Ethereum spot ETF is approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and begins trading, it may attract a large amount of funds to flow back into the market, further boosting the cryptocurrency market.
In this context, we should pay close attention to the upcoming CPI data and the policy trends of the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
The Fed keeps releasing favorable policies, and the Nasdaq keeps hitting new highs! The CPI data will be released at 20:30 tonight, and the data is likely to be 3.1%, which will be favorable again, but the crypto market has been suppressed and not rising. The German government has been selling BTC, but it has sold almost all. The ETH ETF spot is likely to pass in the near future. It feels like the market can no longer be suppressed!
If CPI fails to drive the market to break through key resistance and change the trend, then the only narrative in the near term is Ethereum's ETF, and if the ETF is delayed until next week, even if it passes the sentiment, it may be a little worse. There is no effective information in the macro data next week, so the macro data will focus on this week, otherwise the market rise can only rely on Ethereum's ETF.
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