LIVE"Black Swan" is coming! Bitcoin crisis continues, what should we do next?
Today is Children's Day. First of all, I wish you a happy Children's Day. May your investment career remain as simple, pure and happy as your childhood.
Okay, back to the market, the much-anticipated core PCE data was released last night, which was in line with expectations. The Fed's expectations for a rate cut in September increased, but the trend of Bitcoin only rose for a while and then immediately plunged. Why is this? I think there are two main "black swans" suppressing it:
1) Increased uncertainty in local conflicts
After Trump was convicted, the Biden administration secretly authorized the Ukrainian army to use weapons provided by the United States, and the Russian side also confirmed that Ukraine had used American weapons to attack its homeland, which made the situation in NATO more uncertain. Bitcoin, a risky asset, was also affected by this.
2) Mentougou incident
Mentougou's compensation time is in October. Last week, there were multiple Bitcoin transfers from Mentougou's wallets in succession, with a value of nearly 10 billion. Once released, the selling pressure can be imagined.
You should know that Grayscale currently only sells 100 million per day, which sometimes has a certain impact on the market. To offset the impact of the Mentougou incident, I am afraid that more funds will have to flow into the Bitcoin spot ETF.
Faced with these two "black swans", how should we deal with it?
First of all, be sure to control the position, avoid blindly buying the bottom, reduce the contract multiple, and try to focus on spot. It is recommended that the position should not exceed 70%, leaving 30% of stablecoins waiting for sudden large callbacks!
Okay, originality is not easy, remember to follow, I will share sudden events every day, my interpretation may not be correct, but it must be the most sincere, thank you again for your support!