PCE index forecast for next week: The rebound of the PMI index in April may push up the final value of PCE.
It happened that the fans left a message on the weekend and asked me to talk about the macroeconomic data next week. Let me talk about it briefly.
First, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions at 2:00 a.m. on Wednesday. In fact, there is no need to pay too much attention to this. The Beige Book is a phased summary report based on the current comprehensive economic situation. According to the current situation, it basically continues to blow the strong US economy, but there is a small probability that the data will fluctuate greatly. Once there is a large fluctuation, the Federal Reserve officials will speak to maintain stability after the Beige Book. Of course, this situation has rarely occurred in history. The last time was the 20-year mask period, so there is basically no need to pay too much attention to this Beige Book.
On Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 25 will reflect the situation of the US job market in the short term. It will have a short-term impact on the macro economy, but the impact is not great, especially the next day is the key PCE data release time.
On Friday, the annual and monthly rates of the US core PCE price index in April will be released. This is the most important and most watched data for the macro economy next week. Let's focus on it.
The PCE price index corresponds to the personal consumption expenditure index, which is a key indicator for measuring U.S. private consumption inflation. The data statistics process of the core PCE price index excludes energy and food, which are heavily affected by seasonal and market factors.
The data included in the core PCE index is divided into three categories:
Durable goods: including automobiles, furniture, electrical appliances, etc.
Non-durable goods: including food, clothing, gasoline, etc.
Services: including health care, education, entertainment, etc.
Currently, the core PCE index annual rate was 2.8% and expected to be 2.8%, and the monthly rate was 0.3% and expected to be 0.2%.
The difference between the annual rate and the monthly rate is that the annual rate is the average growth rate of the past 12 months, and the monthly rate is compared with the data of the previous month.
I personally expect that the annual rate of the PCE index next week may be flat, with a small probability higher than the expected and previous value, and the monthly rate is basically higher than expected, or even the same as the previous value.
We can refer to the PMI index in April for the reason.
The initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April was 51.9 before and 52 before, but it was announced as 49.9. The expectation was that the economy would strengthen, but the actual situation was that the announced value was lower than the expectation and the previous value.
The initial value of the S&P Global Services PMI in April in the United States, the previous value was 51.7, the expected value was 52, and the announced value was 50.9. Like the manufacturing industry, the expected value was high, but the actual announced value was low.
However, the initial value of PMI is expected, and the final result depends on the final value. However, judging from the expected value, the data in April is expected to be lower in the manufacturing and service industries.
But in actual conditions,
The final value of PMI in April:
The final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in the United States in April, the previous value was 49.9, the expected value was 49.9, and the announced value was 50. The announced value was greater than the previous value and the expected value, and the growth rate was not large.
The final value of the S&P Global Services PMI in the United States in April, the previous value was 50.9, the expected value was 51, and the announced value was 51.3. The announced value was significantly higher than the previous value and slightly higher than the expected value.
The manufacturing and service indexes in the US PMI index reflect the economic situation of the United States that month, and the core PCE index statistics just include bulk consumption and service industries, especially service industries, because 70% of the US GDP comes from the service industry, and the growth of the service industry index also expects consumers to increase their consumption in the service industry, so it can be expected that the PCE index in April may be relatively strong.
The annual rate of PCE in April strengthened slightly, but the intensity will not increase too much, but the monthly rate may feel significantly stronger than in March.
The strengthening of the PCE index also indirectly represents the pressure of inflation in the United States. The Federal Reserve has difficulty in controlling inflation, and the possibility of optimistic interest rate cuts will be reduced year-on-year.
Of course, the above is a personal analysis expectation, and the final value still depends on the data release next Friday.
