Analysis of overall market dynamics:
I feel a little uncomfortable today, and I feel groggy. I took the opportunity to take medicine to adjust my recent work and rest schedule, and make an overall analysis of today's key points.
1. Macroeconomic sentiment,
After the release of the consumer confidence index last Friday, this week has experienced a day off, and the trading days this week have been shortened. In terms of macroeconomic sentiment, the market is currently trying to find new reasons to prove the optimistic expectations of the United States to cut interest rates this year, especially before the release of the PCE index on Friday.
However, looking at the performance of US stocks, the Nasdaq and S&P have experienced large fluctuations after opening, among which energy stocks have performed well today due to rising oil prices. However, judging from the current trend of the US dollar index, market sentiment is not optimistic enough, and the market has even vaguely felt the pressure of Friday's PCE data.
In addition to the data, the current problem of rising housing prices in key cities in the United States has also caused the market to have greater concerns about future inflationary pressures.
2. Gold/crude oil,
International gold continues to rise, but it is obvious that the selling pressure after the surge is gradually weakening, and bullish sentiment is condensed here. At present, gold continues to remain at a high of 2353.
International crude oil prices, due to the constant friction of the Middle East issue, short-term prices have risen again. Crude oil prices are now quoted at 83.55, and continue to rise during the day, and there is a trend of heading straight to 85.
3. Crypto market,
Under the influence of the temporary loss of macro sentiment, the Mentougou incident today has once again triggered a short-term decline in Bitcoin. It is currently known that there are 137,891 Mentougou coins in stock. From the appearance to the realization of this part of Bitcoin, it is not certain whether it is a direct market sell-off, and it is also possible to go OTC. At the same time, the release and realization rules of this part of Bitcoin, as well as the influence of the compensation rules, lead to the appearance of this part of Bitcoin being linear, so the market stabilizes after a short-term panic decline.
The market has a high acceptance of the sale of this stock of Bitcoin. At the same time, after the short-term panic, the market began to ease, especially after the hidden negative impact of many years, traders even regarded it as a positive impact of the negative impact. And paying attention to the Bitcoin market, it really has little impact.
According to the market reaction, under the premise that the market has expectations for the US macroeconomic sentiment and the follow-up of Ethereum ETF, the decline in the market caused by a small negative impact is limited. Although the current market liquidity is low, the sentiment is relatively stable. Of course, with the announcement of PCE this Friday and if the review of Ethereum ETF S-1 documents is delayed in the near future, market sentiment will slowly decline after a long period of inability to break through. However, there is no need to worry about the decline in sentiment this week. We only need to worry about the impact of PCE data on Friday.
