The Hash Ribbons indicator recently gave a signal of capitulation for BTC miners. The consequences of halving are taking their toll.
Let us remind you that Hash Ribbons is an indicator developed by crypto analyst Charles Edwards. Essentially, this is a pair of moving averages of the#Bitcoinnetwork hashrate and mining difficulty, which can indicate the time of capitulation of miners and their inability to do business in the black. And if miners are out of the market, then, in theory, the pressure from sellers is reduced.
In addition to the surrender signal, this indicator also gives buy signals. In history, they have been false, but most often it was associated with “black swans” or manipulations. For example, the “corona” dump in the spring of 2020 and the#FTXscam in the fall of 2022. Statistically, more often such signals worked perfectly, especially at a distance. They showed on the graph the development in 2022-2023.
The last time the surrender signal from Hash Ribbons was at the end of July 2023, and the BUY signal was in mid-April 2023. With the BTC rate around $30,000. A couple of days later there was a manipulative price move down on two fake news (on SpaceX and Evergrande), then a range and then from October - a powerful increase to a new ATH.
The process of surrender of miners is usually extended over time. From the “capitulation” mark to the “buy” mark can be from 1 to several (2 or even 3) months. Therefore, it is quite possible that we will see a buy signal from the indicator by mid-summer. And it’s not a fact that this will be the optimal price. For example, at the start of the bull run in 2020, the capitulation signal appeared around $13,000 per BTC, and the buy signal appeared around $18,000 per BTC.
