【0515 Market Analysis and Suggestions】1/2
Although it blooms like a summer flower, it is finally here: Sodo!
For the first time in two months, a large number of bullish bets on the US dollar have been withdrawn. Tonight's CPI is expected to hit the US dollar hard, and the short squeeze may be brutal!
1. Fundamentals:
1. At 20:30 on Tuesday (May 14), the year-on-year growth rate of the US PPI in April was in line with market expectations, but the month-on-month increase exceeded market expectations, triggering a short-term diving roller coaster in US stock index futures and the currency market.
2. Powell called the PPI data "mixed" and said that the inflation rate is expected to decline month by month, but the inflation data in the first quarter made him less confident in the decline of inflation than before; at the same time, he reiterated that the next move is unlikely to be a rate hike, and it is more likely to maintain the policy interest rate at the current level.
3. Tonight (Wednesday) at 20:30, the United States will release the April CPI data. The market expects the overall CPI annual rate to fall, the monthly rate to remain unchanged, and the core CPI annual rate and monthly rate to slow down; in addition, the monthly rate of retail sales, known as the "horror data", will also be released, and the market expects it to fall from the previous value.
4. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) show that traders are withdrawing a large number of bets on the dollar; including hedge funds and non-commercial speculators. The net long position has fallen to the smallest size since early April. There have been three times in the past year that the CPI data was lower than expected. Each time the US dollar fell significantly at the end of the week's trading, while risk markets such as the currency market rose significantly.
5. In 2021, the retail leader named "Roaring Kitten" set off a US Meme stock frenzy on social media, and retail investors banded together to defeat institutional shorts. After three years, the Roaring Kitten returned to the arena and blew the rally call for retail investors on foreign media forums, causing Meme stocks to explode instantly and the frenzy to reappear. In the first two trading days of this week, the stock price of game retailer GME soared 179% in two days, and the cinema chain AMC soared 135%. The coin market MEME coin is exactly the same as in 2021, becoming the hot star of this week, and all rose sharply.
